Bitcoin has consistently traded not only at but below its realized price during every past bear market. Currently, that level sits near $54,000.
$40,000 would be par the course of an ordinary bear market.
Secular bull markets always end with a valuation reversal, either because they reach bubble levels unsupported by fundamentals (1929 and 2000) or because they get derated by inflation (1968). Whenever the current trend comes to an end (hopefully not anytime soon), it will likely be for one of those two reasons. Perhaps it will even be both, if the two tail risks manifest at the same time. But for now, valuations are supported by the fundamentals of margins and credit spreads, so let’s enjoy the ride while we can.
Big week ahead for markets 👀
• US Iran tensions remain the biggest macro risk
• Fed Meeting Minutes on Wednesday
• $NVDA earnings on Wednesday
• Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday
• UMich Consumer Sentiment on Friday
And honestly…
Nvidia may now matter more to market momentum than everything else
The next chapter of space computing is here 🛰️
NVIDIA and its ecosystem are advancing AI from Earth-to-space across:
✔️ Earth Orbit and Infrared Imagery
✔️ Radio Frequency and Synthetic Aperture Radar
✔️ Autonomous Space Operations
Leading commercial space companies and mission-grade, radiation-hardened partners are scheduling deployments of NVIDIA Jetson Orin, IGX Thor, and the Vera Rubin Space-1 module for on-orbit AI inference and ground data processing.
Explore the final frontier of AI 🔗 https://t.co/QXQghsoEhK
Hello, Moon. It’s great to be back.
Here’s a taste of what the Artemis II astronauts photographed during their flight around the Moon. Check out more photos from the mission: https://t.co/rzM1P0QbOl
1/ Meet @WheresBroox (Broox Bauer), one of the multiple @AxiomExchange employees allegedly abusing the lack of access controls for internal tools to lookup sensitive user details to insider trade by tracking private wallet activity since early 2025.
🚨 BITCOIN IS BEING MANIPULATED AGAIN!!
$BTC dumped to $60K, pumped back to $71K, and now dumped to $67K again.
All in less than 24 hours.
That’s not organic price action.
That’s coordinated manipulation.
If you hold Bitcoin, you MUST understand what's happening right now:
Always check the flows to draw conclusions.
Exchanges and treasury companies with paper Bitcoin make the most money from violent price swings.
Over the last few days, they dumped and bought back roughly 230,000 BTC worth over $18 billion.
18 BILLION back and forth.
Just think about it for a second.
Let me break it down simply.
Everyone’s glued to the candles.
But almost nobody is watching the one thing that actually matters.
THE FLOWS.
Liquidity is thin.
Which means price can be pushed without needing tens of billions.
Now connect the dots.
1⃣ First, they dumped the price to spread fear
2⃣ Then, pumped the price fast
3⃣ Bitcoin went up $11K in less than a day
Enough to spark FOMO.
Enough to drag people into leverage again.
THIS IS THE SETUP.
Once leverage piles in, they can flip the switch whenever they want.
Crazy dump → Fast pump → Shorts get wiped → FOMO longs pile in → Then comes the dump again.
That single mechanic explains everything.
This is how both sides get farmed.
Dump to liquidate longs.
Then pump to liquidate shorts.
There was no sentiment switch or bad news.
This isn’t about headlines.
It’s about leverage + low liquidity.
I’ve studied markets for over 10 years and called nearly every major market top, including the October BTC ATH.
Follow and turn notifications on.
I’ll post the warning before it makes the headlines.
Ignore it if you want, just don’t say you weren’t warned.