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Moonwave Weekly - August 16-23
BTC has dropped into the recent Buy range and leveled out there. As of writing, liquidity remains positive and the wave is turning higher, yet price is still flat - not what bulls want to see.
The Strategy gauge confirmed the Buy on the 12th but has since stayed in "curb your enthusiasm" Hold territory. That reading looks consistent with the current price action.
The next window of interest is Friday OPEX overlapping with the physics Sell signals on Aug 20-21. This is a notably strong negative confluence, so absent a huge improvement in FX or a meaningful bullish news event, the setup into that zone is bearish.
Moonwave Weekly - August 9-16 (1/2)
The demo strategy bought early on the Jul 28 hybrid Buy, with the actual BTC bottom arriving on the Aug 1 signal. It reduced 50% on the Aug 5 Volatility and moved short on Aug 6.
The key window now is the Aug 11-13 Buy range. This particular signal has historically been associated with roughly two weeks' continuation of whichever trend is in place on those dates, so price action around then should be important. We'll update on Thursday.
Weekly Update - August 2, 2026 (1/2)
Solid week for the demo strategy - the short into the end-of-July Buy zone went well, but with FX drawing the final Buy signal for today, the entry may have been a little early.
Last week’s coordinated BOJ + US intervention to support JPY pushed FXwave sharply negative and triggered a liquidity-driven drop in equities. Cautious bulls will want to see clear signs that this drain is finished before getting aggressive again.
Assuming liquidity stabilizes, the model stays positive until Aug 5. From there the highest-risk window of the month runs through at least Aug 11 and possibly Aug 13, with a Sell on Aug 7.
Monthly Moonwave - July 26, 2026 (1/2)
Key dates ahead:
Buy: Jul 29 (strengthens Aug 1)
Volatility: Aug 5
Sell: Aug 7
Buy: Aug 11-13
Sell: Aug 20-21
After a tough June, July was a return to form. The Jun 29–Jul 1 Buy was a strong entry, the Jul 6-7 Sell delivered the expected pullback, the Jul 8 Volatility marked an early reversal, price dipped into the Jul 13-15 Buy zone, and the confirmed Sell on Jul 23 closed the move cleanly.
Strategy + FXwave as confirmation continues to work very well.
Weekly Update - July 19, 2026 (1/2)
FXwave drew a hybrid Buy on the 13th and confirmed the physics signal on the 14th - good entries so far.
Key dates ahead:
Jul 20: Volatility signal
Jul 23-25: Sell range
We’ll see how Friday’s resumption of hostilities in Iran impacts Monday’s open, which falls on July's forecasted Volatility date. Very positive FX could support continuation, but it's looking like a safe derisk ahead of the 23-25 Sell range later in the week.