Crypt2Rise

Crypt2rise - tracking the rise of #crypto and #bitcoin / not financial advice

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

Bitcoin just touched the 200-week MA again.📉
Nobody knows if this is THE bottom...
But history shows:
🔵Blue zones are the BEST buying opportunities
🔵They ALWAYS touch the 200W MA
🔵They go up:
~$250 → ~$4k
~$4k → ~$20k
~$20k → ~$60k
Interesting times ahead!👀

[Titan @Washigorira]

#Bitcoin

Whether the bottom is already in or still ahead, accumulating around the death cross has historically been a smart move.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Some long-term holder data shows that long-term holding is maxed out and at cycle bottom levels, but my long-term holder metric does not.

That being said, it is pretty close.

Current position lines us up with "one more big move to the cycle bottom": September 2014, August 2018, and July 2022.

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

Bitcoin closed June at $58,526

BELOW 200 week moving average ($62k)

ABOVE realized cost price ($52k)

ALL previous bear market bottoms were below realized price ...

[Titan @Washigorira]

#Bitcoin

$70K → $45K–49.5K → Next bull cycle

The latest 6-month candle may have revealed the next phase of the cycle.

Both previous bear markets followed the same sequence:

• Relief rally in early H2
• Final decline into the bottom area
• Trend reversal

A relief rally toward ~$70K could be followed by one final move into the $45K–49.5K area before the next bullish cycle begins.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Everyone has their opinion on what "everyone" is thinking right now, so I'll be adding mine as an update to the Bitcoin Calendar of the Masses:

"Bottom is in, We Did It!"

There are lots of confident claims that the cycle bottom is in, citing some profit loss metrics at cycle bottom levels and bullish divergence forming on Weekly RSI.

This sentiment is a far cry from the typical apathy and overwhelming doom narratives I have seen at previous cycle bottoms.

I am staying open to different possibilities, but the trifecta of the cycle bottom is not there yet for me (cycle timing, enough data triggers, psychology).

[Titan @Washigorira]

CVDD has historically identified #Bitcoin’s major cycle bottoms with remarkable accuracy.

It currently sits at $48,400… and continues to rise.

[PlanB @100trillionUSD]

Bitcoin will likely bottom BELOW Realized Price (~$53k), just like it did in EVERY previous bear market.

Right now the grey Realized Price line has been glued to the black 200-week Geometric MA line since 2023.

What do you think: new low incoming or different this time?👇

[G.Martín @GMartin_0]

#Bitcoin

Sentiment remains in “hope-fear” territory according to Net Unrealized Profit/Loss.

Compared to previous cycles, we still haven’t seen the typical capitulation phase.

That final moment where investors stop believing in $BTC, panic sell, and give up on the part of the cycle they should be buying.

The question is:

Will we get an actual event that forces that capitulation?

A macro shock + big stock market pullback?

MSTR/STRC stresss?

A long liquidation cascade?

Or just slow psychological exhaustion ?

That is the phase I’m still watching for..

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

Ah... that looks like a more suitable point 1 for the bear market.

A move to the cycle bottom mark on the Aroon Oscillator, in the same month as all other point 1's (June).

One more move to cycle bottom levels should make point 2.

[Titan @Washigorira]

#Bitcoin Bear Flag playing out so far.

No reason to change the bearish outlook yet.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

On the Magic Bands V2, Bitcoin is still only halfway to the aggressive cycle bottom target of 29k.

Price has broken below level 2 (blue), which has happened at various points in other bear markets. The common thread is a move to Level 1 (yellow) and eventually the cycle bottom band (red).

I'm not saying that Bitcoin must go to the cycle bottom band this bear market (although it is possible).... but to have excellent consistency across all cycles and then bottom in the middle of the bands would not make sense.

I believe data is getting progressively more challenging to interpret. This has already been true for the past two cycle tops and the last cycle bottom.

What looks like an obvious weekly bullish divergence on RSI like November 2022 may prove to be just a red herring.

[Quinten | 048.eth @QuintenFrancois]

Bitcoin bottom indicator 🚨

[Max Pain @maxpain_crypto]

Look at this chart.

#Bitcoin just got rejected
at the 200 Day Moving Average.

Do you really think the bottom is in?

[Joe007 @J0E007]

Bottom is where Bitfinex whales start buying at volume. If you want to succeed in crypto markets, you'll do well to remember that.

[Max Pain @maxpain_crypto]

We are here.

[CryptoCon @CryptoCon_]

The collective consensus amongst crypto X seems to be that the cycle bottom is in. That alone gets me pretty disinterested in looking for the low here.

Of course, the bear market according to the Havling Cycles Theory is not over until November 2026 - January 2027.

It is no surprise that "this time is different" is coming back up. This time, the plausible story is data interpretation.

A potential bullish divergence is forming on Weekly RSI, just like November 2022. Some metrics are bottoming out. From my perspective, most have not.

So, I will once again take the contrarian position during this bounce and say the cycle bottom is not in.

The opportunity I'm looking for is the trifecta of psychology, data positioning, and cycle position.

[K A L E O @CryptoKaleo]

#Bitcoin / $BTC

$40K before $100K.

Only a few months away from what we've seen as the traditional four year cycle's bottom post halving.

Still believe now is a good time to be stacking BTC if you're patient enough.

(e.g. if you were stacking anywhere in the $20K-$30K range last cycle, you'd be pretty damn happy with those buys a couple years later even though the price dipped as low as $16K)

[Titan @Washigorira]

#Bitcoin Generational Bottom?

Something caught my attention while applying standard Fibonacci retracements on Bitcoin’s logarithmic chart.

In each of the last three cycles, Bitcoin bottomed inside the exact same retracement zone:

78.6% – 88.6% Fib Retracement

If the pattern repeats, a potential generational buying opportunity could emerge around $39K.

Not my base case. But markets don’t care about our opinions.

Will history repeat itself?

@GMartin_0