CryptoCharlie

Absolutely clueless!

[CryptoCharlie @CryptoCharlie66]

The pendulum is swinging

[manu🚜🕳️ @0xManu_]

@Evan_ss6 Ethereum is destined to outperform soon

[CryptoCharlie @CryptoCharlie66]

@cvpayne @HaileyLennonBTC He gets out, reformed. Replaces Gary Gensler..

[CryptoCharlie @CryptoCharlie66]

@Austen 10,000

[Alex Barrera @theAlexBarrera]

Alright men, I need your input.

I’m thinking of throwing away my box of cables.

You know the one.

Will I regret this?

[CryptoCharlie @CryptoCharlie66]

@tradermike1234 No strategy and no idea how to find one

[CryptoCharlie @CryptoCharlie66]

@TheCryptoLark Some people simply choose the winning lottery numbers

[CryptoCharlie @CryptoCharlie66]

@Trader_XO @btc_charlie Cool name

[CryptoCharlie @CryptoCharlie66]

@bitcoinarchive It's a boy

[CryptoCharlie @CryptoCharlie66]

@Rothmus Those Norwegians

[CryptoCharlie @CryptoCharlie66]

End wokeness begin slavery

[End Wokeness @EndWokeness]

California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a law to raise the minimum wage for fast food workers to $20 per hour.

In response to the new law, California Pizza Hut operators are laying off all their delivery drivers one month before the law goes into effect.

1,200 jobs eliminated overnight.

Other fast-food chains in California have announced price hikes on the menu.

[CryptoCharlie @CryptoCharlie66]

@CheekyCrypto $43

[CryptoCharlie @CryptoCharlie66]

@BritishHodl 0.00000001

[CryptoCharlie @CryptoCharlie66]

@HukAleksandra Thought it'd say and then I lost everything

[CryptoCharlie @CryptoCharlie66]

@CryptoWizardd Will buy late and hold all the way back down..

[CryptoCharlie @CryptoCharlie66]

@adamscochran Watch out chaps https://t.co/RuJzVXZVHu

[CryptoCharlie @CryptoCharlie66]

@zerohedge Fell in Love With a Girl https://t.co/hpChSVxfTU

[CryptoCharlie @CryptoCharlie66]

@KobeissiLetter It's gonna start raining men..

[Fishy Catfish @CatfishFishy]

Why I'm not bullish on Bitcoin longterm:

Because I can do 4th grade arithmetic and I don't believe in fairy godmothers.

Because 97% of the money paid to miners comes from inflation (block rewards) and that inflation gets cut in half every 4 years (halvenings), that means BTC's price has to nearly double every 4 years just to have the same amount of revenue to pay miners as the last epoch.

HODLing pet rock, its primary use case, produces no protocol revenue to pay miners. People are now hoping that trading pictures of cartoon wizards will help BTC survive, but it's futile. You need a use case that sustainably increases user fees by almost 30X to replace the revenue lost from four halvenings.

No one can even name what that hypothetical use case is, despite the fact that the profit motive to create it exists just as much today as it does in the future. It's not even clear that such a use-case can even be built given the lack of scalability of the network.

Who will be mining BTC after block rewards drop by 94%, if the price doesn't do a 12X-16X? You would need a 16X just to keep the profitability of miners equal to where its at today. Anything below that and they're making less money than they are today. You can even assume **zero** electricity costs when you're doing these calculations and the math still doesn't pencil. You still need to recoup the cost of hardware and you still need to earn a sufficient ROI for yourself.

Do you think people will mine BTC to earn sub 1% ROI or mine at a loss? Just because you *need* the price to keep doubling doesn't mean it will. It gets exponentially harder as the marketcap gets larger.

Right now, it's marketcap is at $500B. After one halvening, it needs to go to $1T, then $2T, then $4T, then $8T. We're talking about you needing trillions of dollars worth of marketcap being added every four years, once we are four halvenings out. That's an entire marketcap of Apple (!), the most valuable company in the world, being added every four years and only larger from there on out.

At some point, in 20 years, you take transaction fee revenue and add it to BTC's current price, multiplied by the size of its block reward, and its total compensation to miners is non-competitive, or an outright loser, compared to other allocations of capital. Even if BTC mining produces positive income, if it's too low of a return, capital will move elsewhere.

So, that means people will stop mining because its a money losing endeavor, or returns are too low, and the network security starts to drop, and as that happens, it will start losing the memetic value of it being the most secure/decentralized network in the world, which will cause people to sell, which further plummets the price, which further reduces the returns of mining, which makes more people quit mining, etc. You can see the positive feedback loop.

BTC needs to create a sustainable revenue stream from transactions to compensate miners (to offset that dwindling block reward) or they will be forced with the prospects of a security and value death spiral or...having to add additional inflation above their 21M hard cap and having to do that would be the ultimate nail in the coffin for so many of the memes around BTC around "money not controlled by people", "hardest money on Earth", "money not printed by central banker" etc; all your favorite laser eye cult memes.

Your choices are:

A) Creating sustainable revenue from people using the network for something that generates revenue

B) Removing the 21M hardcap and adding more inflation via block rewards and completely undermining the meme claims BTC has made

C) Network security and value death spiral

None of those choices are very promising. But, believing that its value will just magically keep doubling because that's what you need to have happen in order to avoid catastrophe doesn't mean it will happen.

[CryptoCharlie @CryptoCharlie66]

@BillyM2k everything that had to evolve for that. Every arbitrary movement and choice of Every ancestor. The position of Every atom in the universe throughout all of time. This tweet is therfore just as unlikely

[CryptoCharlie @CryptoCharlie66]

@BillyM2k I'd say the odds are practically 1 in infinity. Chance of universe existing. Near the right star. Earth forming. Life evolving. Humans existing. No of generation x sperms per shot. Number of potential partners. Ancestrol line surviving. Every bite of every ancestors diet and..