CryptoCharming 🐟

Research @SuDoResearch | Prev. team @RiverdotInc
實盤玩家 | 專注於 EVM 系鏈上 & DeFi @GooseCityDAO
熱愛分析數據扒地址 | 懂一點點開發 | 也懂一點點調研

[CryptoCharming 🐟 @CryptoCharming]

⌠ 實盤 PNL 1m 里程碑 & 後續走勢看法⌡
​
這個 @BNBCHAIN 打狗號總算死活做到 1m PNL 了，老天賞飯吃給了這麼一波大行情，畢竟有 700k 是過去 30d 賺到的，吃了 Beta 的大加成了。這一路以來其實玩的非常辛苦，因為我是一個極討厭回撤的玩家，玩的非常猥瑣，優點是 PNL 基本是一路向上緩漲，缺點是我從來沒吃過一條大的，1m 總 PNL 但單筆吃最大的甚至只佔了 100k，由此能知道我是 P 了多少盤子慢慢做上來的 😂 雖然跟這波很多人單幣 1m 比起來我肯定很一般，不過對於我拿下的成果還是挺開心的。

而這波行情熱潮其實很明顯能看出誰是真實力、誰沒穿褲子，我也算是驗證了自己不是那些幾把成天寫文章整天高談闊論的 KOL，是敢實盤做給大家看的 Degen Trader，幣安 KOL 牛人榜 30D 90D 都在 Top10 內我相信足以證明一切，之前 Woody 哥說要搞流量可以說日賺 10k 寫文章，沒想到這個月日日賺 20k 成功了，運氣真不錯。

吹牛逼吹完了，來聊一下後續我的看法，我個人認為這波幣安原本排程都做好了，知道每一步要做什麼，大致上節奏也掌握的很好，不過前幾天的閃崩應該非常大程度干擾到原有的 memecoin 發展進程。而今天 CZ 出來喊兩嘴，我認為很大動機是打一下強心針，人工強行的延長一下 BNBChain Memecoin 的壽命。
​
不過可以看到，從昨天的大灑幣到今天的 CZ 偷奶，一級都沒有什麼復甦的跡象，少數中文標衝上去現在馬上回原位了，延續性極差，而一級新盤子更不用說了，你甚至沒啥盤子能玩，幾乎沒有什麼自然買盤，除了綑綁攢局外可以說枯的一批。另外我主觀的認為，當市場資金集中標的又重回 CZ、Heyi 週邊盤時，就是差不多到中尾聲了，我相信歷史不一定重演但會押韻。
​
所以我認為的核心關鍵是，幣安內部這次首要目標為「避免 Mubarak 上所即終點事件重演」，那這個局該怎麼破？大家都知道拉盤即真理，不過現在大盤環境這樣子糟糕動盪，要逆勢狂漲成本跟難度都很大，真強硬上所我覺得大多數人就是奪命拋售了，那群鑽石手老哥們肯定想套保出場吧，所以我覺得他們最可能的策略是，盡可能多出幾個小招，像是 CZ 今天嘴嚕這樣，人工續命 memecoin，上幣的事先壓住，等風頭過去、整體市場趨勢回歸再說，最糟的狀況就是大盤真崩盤，那這輪 memecoin 可能就到這邊了。

另外一個我覺得可能的解法是，從目前的 meme 中選出最有可能一枝獨秀、具備延續性、故事好說方便大儒辯經的標的，而從 $4、$GIGGLE、$幣安人生等相關標的中，我覺得最好的標的其實是「$幣安人生」，因為他是第一個中文 Ticker，這個基本上能帶動整體「中文標」的情緒高漲，帶動一級新幣活絡的能力應該比 $4 和 $GIGGLE 都還要好。另外，也看的到他們在做測試了，我也認為之前特意開了接口是有他的意義的，所以如果上面的意思是一定要上、逆勢硬上幣的話，我是 Listing 組我會選擇幣安人生。
​
這是我前天的思考，也是我昨天實盤號開始不斷收貨幣安人生的邏輯，不過為什麼剛剛 CZ 偷奶時我出掉一大部分呢？主要是我認為時機還沒到，如果是偷奶拉高時直接就順勢上所的話，很明顯就是高位讓交易所用戶接盤了，回到剛剛說的宗旨，我猜測他們很可能會在不經意間、相對低位時來一發驚喜，我認為這對多方都是比較有利的做��。

🔖 備註：本篇文章非常主觀，沒有任何雞毛內幕，只是分享我的看法，不是 Shill，畢竟我 $GIGGLE 拿的比幣安人生多的多，所以我的發言應該還算中立。不過話說回來，我整體曝險其實已經挺小的了，目前是處於防守狀態，只打新、不長持、不大倉賭，因為我是膽小鬼。
​
最後，我可能會被光速打臉，文章也可能會讓你不開心，我可能有哪邊思考不夠周全，所以純粹是我想法分享，請保持獨立思考，歡迎指教討論。另外有內幕的話歡迎私訊跟我說，我會非常感謝你哈哈哈哈
​
#CharmingPost @BNBCHAINZH #BNB $BNB

[CryptoCharming 🐟 @CryptoCharming]

@sss_crypto @pieverse_io Fan 神

[CryptoCharming 🐟 @CryptoCharming]

@chinh132hn @4444_STK20 🤣 大實話

[CryptoCharming 🐟 @CryptoCharming]

@4444_STK20 不就是铭文随便取个名字给分红吗 跟股票有啥鸡毛关系价格也不连动阿 🤣 不过兄弟还是有创意的

[CryptoCharming 🐟 @CryptoCharming]

@okmetom tom 猪赶紧做 众所周知 Heyi 最喜欢的就是这类玄学预测 ���

[CryptoCharming 🐟 @CryptoCharming]

@1onlyliveonce_1 传出去币安发新书了

[CryptoCharming 🐟 @CryptoCharming]

@0xSUPERGEMMA You can do it!

[CryptoCharming 🐟 @CryptoCharming]

@0x0funky 牛逼方神 揭露細節讓我偷學一下

[CryptoCharming 🐟 @CryptoCharming]

@Cewex_emo 看西班牙文就知道 BOB 是玻利維亞法币吧。。。

[CryptoCharming 🐟 @CryptoCharming]

@YYzzy_diamond 大的要来了

[CryptoCharming 🐟 @CryptoCharming]

@MolloyM_777 @Jizhang00 @Lmecooking @Miner_bsc 人家是高流量的 KOL

[CryptoCharming 🐟 @CryptoCharming]

@Jizhang00 @Lmecooking @Miner_bsc 他还在买就给他活路吧 用心搞还做不起来已经很可怜了
如果他后面跑路了喊我 我直接曝光

[CryptoCharming 🐟 @CryptoCharming]

@traderwanwan 哦靠我今天正要找你 看你 TG 好久没上想说怎辦 就想問你這個哈哈

[CryptoCharming 🐟 @CryptoCharming]

@Lmecooking @Miner_bsc 不会跑了 因为他金流没断干净 他跑路我直接曝光 🤣 这小子又开盘子

[CryptoCharming 🐟 @CryptoCharming]

@AbdoelSixsensa @CL_CLACL @Miner_bsc yeah

[CryptoCharming 🐟 @CryptoCharming]

@CL_CLACL @Miner_bsc 嗯现在还是诚实的 但这只能纯信他 Dev 累了就跑路了

[CryptoCharming 🐟 @CryptoCharming]

@0xLuckHK @Zhao_Luo_Chen 是的哥试试就懂

[CryptoCharming 🐟 @CryptoCharming]

@0xLuckHK @Zhao_Luo_Chen wayback machine 拉时间对比一下就好

[Pumponomics @ThePumponomics]

road to (hopefully) $30m | month 2 recap

the goal, for anyone new: started with $5m cash in march, $5.9m end of april, $10.4m end of may. crypto as an asset class barely moved. "round 2" is me documenting going from $5m to $30m in spot crypto with proof of every position. fortunately sold solana near the top last cycle. doing this one in public.

a good month doesn't mean i'm right. just means i'm up *right now*. things can get ugly very quickly.

section 1: what changed

ZEC roughly doubled, then gave a chunk back. HYPE gained ~80% and held most of it. BTC sideways the whole month.

the portfolio went over $10m mid month, pulled back to the mid-8s on a hard ZEC dip, then recovered into the close. closing the month at $10.4m (up $4.5m from april). i'd be lying if i said i was unfazed by the round-trip to the mid-8s. that pullback was the first time round 2 felt real, not theoretical.

the rotation thesis i've been writing about since march is what drove the run. crypto's overall pie isn't growing. BTC is flat since i bought in late march while AI stocks, prediction markets, sports betting, and quantum stocks all soak up speculative capital that used to flow into crypto. that's the structural backdrop. the only way an alt rips in that environment is intra crypto rotation. and the math here is the part most people are missing.

HYPE and ZEC combined are ~$25b of circulating market cap. ETH alone is ~$250b, 10x the size of both of my bags put together. if even a small fraction of ETH holders look at a five year flat price chart and ask "why am i still here" and rotate, the math doesn't have to work hard. ETH drops 10%, that's $25b looking for a home, and if even half of it lands in HYPE and ZEC, those coins fly on their own.

stablecoin holders are the other half of the story. a lot of people sat in stables waiting for an october 2026 bottom that may or may not arrive. the stablecoin share of total crypto market cap has been declining for two months as that money chases winners. ZEC and HYPE were the winners. some of that stable money found its way in.

no new capital required. just rotation, from ETH into the narrative leaders, from stables into the price leaders. that's what drove the run. the late month chop gave some of it back and then took it back again. which brings me to what i actually did about all of it.

section 2: what i did

nothing.

doing nothing through a runup is harder than doing nothing through a flat month. and doing nothing through the pullback that followed is a different kind of hard. when things are flat the inaction defends itself. when things rip, reverse, and recover in the same week, every day you don't act is a day you're choosing a path.

there are two playbooks available for spot plays this cycle. worth naming them both.

playbook 1: hold towards the cycle top. buy in the bear, ride the drawdowns, sell when the framework says sell. this is what i did with solana last cycle. it requires stomaching real drawdowns. i sat through significant pullbacks on sol after it had already 10x'd. one decision at the start, one decision at the end, a lot of nothing in between.

playbook 2: swing and rebuy. trim into strength, buy back on weakness, repeat. on paper this is more profitable if you get it right. in practice you have to be right about three things instead of one: when to sell, when to buy back, what to buy back into. miss any one and you're worse off than just holding. plus short-term cap gains, a ~20% drag on every round-trip. plus you have to find a better asset than what you already own, and i don't. if i did i'd be holding it instead of HYPE and ZEC.

i'm picking playbook 1.

and this month was the first real test of that. ZEC ran to ~$675, came all the way back to $500, then bounced to $570 into the close. still meaningfully off the high. the playbook 2 move was to have trimmed in the 600s and plan to rebuy lower. the playbook 1 move was to do nothing. the real reason i didn't trim isn't discipline, it's opportunity cost. i want to be in ZEC. if my thesis is right, the pullback might not be deep enough or long enough for a clean rebuy, and i'd end up sidelined in a position i was already correctly in. trimming to chase a better entry when you already have a good one is playing it too cute. so i didn't.

obvious caveat: it's easy to talk about playbook 1 when the screenshot i just posted is green. the real test isn't the run up, it's the first 40% drawdown. i sat through one on sol last cycle. i'll find out if that experience transfers when it happens. this week was a small preview, not the real exam.

here's the thing about playbook 1 that nobody talks about: it's not easy because it's lazy. it's hard. the entire crypto information environment is built to pull you off it. every week, something else is running. every day, someone on CT is telling you to rotate. when ZEC pulled back this week, my replies filled up with "is it time to rotate to [other coin]?" because the other coin had started moving and ZEC had paused. that's the trap. attention follows momentum, momentum follows attention, and the loop runs on you mistaking short term price action for an actual thesis change.

what i keep telling myself: my thesis hasn't broken. HYPE and ZEC were the call when i bought them and the case for both got more confirmed this month, not less. a coin running for a week elsewhere, or my own bag giving back 20% off a high, is noise unless something has actually changed in the coins. nothing has.

at my core i'm lazy, and the lazy move and the right move are the same here. it is to do nothing.

section 3: what would change my mind

a few things, none of them tight rules.

if ZEC or HYPE make a meaningful move up over the next month or two, i'd consider trimming some. "meaningful" is intentionally vague. i don't know what the number is until i see it. probably small if i do it.

what i'm explicitly not going to react to: ETH or SOL outperforming HYPE and ZEC for a month or two. that's going to happen. these things ebb and flow inside a cycle. ZEC consolidating after a double, or HYPE giving back 20-30% while another major runs, is normal. doesn't break the thesis. doesn't move me.

the coin specific thesis break would be one of my bags doing something actually wrong. HYPE's revenue dropping, ZEC failing to capture the privacy narrative when conditions are obviously favorable, a regulatory action targeting either of them directly. and if either ever round trips back to my cost basis, that's when i find out how strong the conviction really is. i don't think it happens, but i'd rather say that now than figure it out in the moment.

what won't change my mind: a 20-30% drawdown without a thesis problem. one bad week. one scary headline that doesn't touch the actual reasons i own these.

a note before next month

at some point i'll publish my full sell framework, the actual conditions that would move me from holding to selling. but that's bull-market content, and right now the more honest question is whether i'd hold these through a real drawdown. so i'll write whichever one the market makes real. probably get to both before this is over.

everything in this recap is a snapshot, not a vow. i'm picking playbook 1 today, end of may 2026, with the information i have. if conditions change i'll change with them. and you'll see me say so. flexibility is the point.

things are going very well *so far*, but things can change very fast in crypto.