CryptoCondomAlpha

[CryptoCondomAlpha @CryptoCondomPro]

I’m not fucking leaving. It’s a shit industry at times… but it’s OUR industry. It is what we make of it.
Let’s make it great.

[CryptoCondom @crypto_condom]

Digital biology names will trade at valuations far higher than normal biotech. Companies with real products, real revenue, no debt and low dilution risk due to long cash runways will rapidly rerate this year imo. $ABCL is my bet that meets all of the above criteria.

[Krugman (on socials break 🌚) @krugman87]

The biggest headwind confluence I see right now for crypto is Bitmine hitting their 5% ETH target and significantly slowing buying, STRC inflows losing steam, and an overheated market letting out some steam.

That could see crypto prices heading back towards 2026 lows, which I'd personally see as a good buying opportunity.

[Krugman (on socials break 🌚) @krugman87]

While investors are hyperfocused on ai and semi's, October crude is casually climbing higher. Now less than $1 from ath's.

[Carlos Mucha @mucha_carlos]

Always interesting when a random poster turns out to granular expertise. It turns out the the guy saying good luck getting another oil change while the Strait is closed buys more motor oil every day than anyone you’ve ever met.

[Origo @origoinvest]

Within this metals super cycle may I suggest you consider rotating some gains from precious metals to critical metals namely Uranium, Copper, Lithium

Precious metals have outperformed within the debasement trade context but I expect some sharp drawdowns along the way as speculation based demand accelerates

Nuclear, data centres and battery storage will continue to underpin physical demand for Uranium, Copper and Lithium respectively and as the structural deficit in these markets widens these metals have much more room to run to get back to and exceed prior ATHs

[SS @sshxbt]

oh husbant you invested in a triple layer anthropic spv at the cycle top now we are homeress and forever relegated to the permanent undercrass

[Tom Capital @Tom__Capital]

$AUDUSD

Adjust those forecasted GDP figures for immigration and growth is exceptionally weak

GDP fcast in 26/27 at 1.75% is pretty much the same rate as the population increase, so GDP is effectively stagnant or negative

Australia has been in a " per capita recession" for the past two years and looks like it's set to continue

For those (especially Labor voters) that don't understand the above, immigration is acting as a "buffer" that prevents the headline GDP number from turning negative, but it is masking the underlying reality that the average person's economic share is declining.

Thanks @JEChalmers 🖕

[spaghettilisbon @spaghettilisbon]

Could be a nasty day for front end with german supply (6bn schatz) + some bills and US CPI

[Tom Dunleavy @dunleavy89]

Ngl, I didn't think it was possible for Tom Lee to buy ~5% of all ETH (and ~32% of all ETH sitting on exchanges) and for the price to go down.

Possible reasons:
1) Ultrasound money narrative and accompanying demand is dead: Post-Dencun L2 blobs crushed L1 burns. ETH supply now mildly inflationary ~0.23% YoY, first time since Merge. Deflationary scarcity narrative that drove institutional FOMO is gone with zero replacement.
2) L1 fee capture gutted by L2s: Mainnet tx volume & active addresses stagnant. Fat protocol thesis evaporated . L2s handle the activity at 90-99% lower fees. L1 is now low-margin settlement layer with almost no value accrual to ETH. ( I dont think this matters as expressed many times but it is a narrative)
3) Stablecoins & tokenization bypassing L1: USDT on Tron still dominates; Solana eats retail; Base grabs institutional. “World computer” demand isn’t flowing back to ETH holders.
4) Staking yield uncompetitive: Net ~2-3.5% (post fees) vs risk-free T-bills at 4%+. No carry trade for allocators. Why hold volatile ETH for sub-Treasury yield?
5) Counter-selling has swallowed it all: EF has sold 20k+ ETH in 2026 alone (multiple OTC deals directly to BitMine; 5k + two 10k batches worth ~$47M recently) while unstaking ~20k ETH chunks (~$40-50M each). OG whales (e.g. Garrett Jin dumped 578k ETH / $1.35B to Binance in just 4 days). Long-term holders & whales distribute straight into BitMine headlines/OTC bids. Much of the “accumulation” is just vacuuming up this supply privately. Zero spot squeeze, especially with 90%+ of BitMine’s stack staked & illiquid.
6) AI capital suck: enough said
7) War stuff: enough said

Still hopeful for a strong end of the year with Clarity, Glamsterdam, and the war ending, but it has not been a fun ride.

[CryptoCondom @crypto_condom]

Two words : Exit Liquidity

[CryptoCondom @crypto_condom]

Riiiiiight. Hold your breath and wait. …They’ll rotate into robotics and commodities.

[Tom Capital @Tom__Capital]

$CVNA 🤔

[Tom Capital @Tom__Capital]

The FX market is officially tired of the "Deal/No Deal" carousel. Trump's rejection of the latest proposal has the market treading water, but the underlying trends are loud:
🇬🇧 GBP/Gilts: Starmer’s survival is the only caveat. Political instability is pushing yields higher as 70+ MPs call for an "orderly transition".
📈 Equities/BTC: The drift continues. Momentum > Macro for now.
🇺🇸 US CPI: Everyone’s braced for a hot print, but with the SoH blocked, energy remains the real driver.

Vol remains stagnant, range-bound and choppy until someone actually signs on the dotted line. ✍️

[CryptoCondom @crypto_condom]

Long term follower of @chigrl. Cannot emphasize enough how good her substack content it. Her most recent article is excellent & basically highlights the trade implication is not “short Nasdaq now"
.....a better setup is to be early in the beneficiaries of the cost cascade—industrial gases, energy, copper, electrical steel, uranium, silver, tin, and specialty materials—while waiting for a later, more catalyst-rich short setup in fragile AI ROI names.

That's my kind of trade. Highly recommend the follow, the sub and the read. 🫡

[Blue Lives Matter @bluelivesmtr]

HOLY COW: Bombshell data from the IRS has left NY Governor Kathy Hochul speechless.

Between 2020-2024, 892 companies escaped from New York - along with $47 BILLION in income with them.

Here's where they went:

• Florida: 341 companies
• Texas: 187
• North Carolina: 129

But guess what - it's no longer just billionaires.

We're talking about middle-class professionals, small business owners, and families desperate to flee the taxes, regulations and unsafe state.

Remember when Hochul made fun of them?

“Just get on a bus.” Well.... they did.

REPOST and get the data out there!

#thinblueline #lawenforcement

[Mr. VIX @yieldsearcher]

Fair bit of fear in the rates mkt going into the CPI. I personally do not think core will be hot, but predicting this is a fool’s errand.

But with 30Y just 2bp below 5%, if we get a hot print that flips 2027 hike prob above 50% (now at 35%), risk assets wont like that one iota.

[CryptoCondom @crypto_condom]

🚩Flagging this bc I don’t think you guys are tracking this clearly enough.

Trump will almost certain acknowledge self sovereignty and advocate for statehood if this referendum passes.

[CryptoCondomAlpha @CryptoCondomPro]

🎯Double beat
🎯Phase 1 data endpoints met

Near book value w/a derisked phase 1 means dips are for buying. 🫡