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@1RTPartners @aaronmcdnz@futureverse@josh_siegler Great insights on the future of exponential technologies! The attached image from @thedacfp highlights the projected 2030 market size, showing the metaverse with a massive $5T potential, reinforcing its bright future. 🚀Exciting times ahead! @futureverse@aaronmcdnz#metaverse
BREAKING: $1 TRILLION BANKING GIANT UBS SAYS RICH CLIENTS ARE DIVERSIFYING AS MUCH AS 5% OF THEIR TOTAL ASSETS INTO CRYPTO
#BITCOIN TO $20 TRILLION. LET'S GO 🔥
Interesting opportunities outside USA:
While I believe the United States is still the best place to allocate capital there are other markets that look attractive for allocation outside of the United States.
The graph below highlights the Marginal Product of Capital (MPK) this is the additional output (e.g., GDP) produced by using one more unit of capital (machinery, plants, equipment), holding everything else constant.
Fixed capital is the long-term, durable parts of capital - infrastructure, factories, and technology.
SO, the Marginal Product of Fixed Capital is the extra output produced when you increased fixed capital by one unit.
Mathematically:
MPK= δ Output/δ Fixed Capital
Below the frontier line would represent the most efficient use of capital - the production possibility frontier (PPF) or efficiency frontier for capital.
If a country’s MPK is on the frontier line it means it’s using capital very efficiently. Any increase in capital yields the maximum possible output relative to other countries or economic conditions. There’s no waste or underutilization of capital. If a country has an MPK on the frontier investors could expect their money to yield better.
You are also going to see efficient use of resources, which would suggest good institutions, infrastructure, and policies. Lower risk of inefficiency, capital won’t sit idle or be mismanaged.
Based on the frontier Poland, Mexico, and New Zealand remain relatively attractive.
Folks dont understand what is happening with Bitcoin during this risk-asset panic. BTC with 2.5x the volatility of the S&P500 experienced a drawdown of 28% vs. the SPX 19%. That is a massive OUTPERFORMANCE.
When I ran a similar analysis in 2023, I demonstrated that each bear market Bitcoin has been outperforming on a risk-adjusted basis.
https://t.co/dPUxYjr9UH
Perhaps it's not just BTC's strength, but a reflection of the increasing fragility of the fiat system and its asset markets – complex systems inherently trend toward entropy/chaos. Bitcoin is mirroring this unraveling.
There’s a lot of noise in the market right now – conflicting narratives everywhere.
But here’s the reality – or at least my take on what’s really going on:
Everything happening in markets right now, especially in crypto, is a direct consequence of the tightening of financial conditions in Q4 last year.
When financial conditions tighten, liquidity gets drained, and economic surprises start to slow. I mentioned this before, including in a tweet I posted yesterday.
That’s why we’re seeing a soft patch in the economic data and why the market is freaking out about a growth scare, with recession talk now making a comeback.
Here’s the thing:
This will all reverse next month.
Financial conditions have been easing rapidly over the past two months – dollar down, bond yields down, oil down – and that’s setting the stage for a recovery in the data soon. Remember, financial conditions are always leading.
One final point:
With the drop to $80k, this tightening is now fully reflected in the price of Bitcoin.
Could we go a little lower? Sure…
But here’s what I’d say:
Everyone’s already on the same side of the trade – sentiment is extremely bearish, and Bitcoin is sitting at an RSI of 23, the most oversold level since August 2023.
So if you’re still bearish, don’t get too comfortable…
Instead, be greedy when others are fearful.
Just my two cents. Hope it’s helpful to some.
Almost didn't watch this, because of its length, but after hearing about it 3 times in one day, I made the effort. I was not disappointed
This is the first video about Bitcoin I've seen that I am comfortable to share with anyone who has not yet adopted Bitcoin. Masterful
If you have fiduciary oversight of a pension fund, and you are not considering Bitcoin, you are failing your fiduciary duty to get people the best possible returns, and protect them from risk
Numerous models show 2-4% exposure gives a better expected return + lower risk spread
#Bitcoin in the investment media in OZ 🇦🇺every day now!..Finally! 🚀
Bitcoin becoming key asset for businesses as adoption surges https://t.co/jMOLIHp8qm
Why Vanguard is wrong about Bitcoin
There are some valid reasons why Bitcoin is not the right asset for every pension fund. For example if a pension fund has only one year to run, then Bitcoin is not a suitable investment.
Some are also poor reasons, that show a lack of understanding of Bitcoin as an asset classes.
Vanguard's reasons for rejecting Bitcoin for every pension fund ("risky" and "lacks intrinsic value") fall into the second category.
Here's why.
Firstly, the "no intrinsic value" is one of the most embarrassing things one can opine about Bitcoin. Not because it betrays a lack of understanding about Bitcoin, but because it betrays a lack of understanding of assets generally. If Vanguard had taken a few minutes to do an Internet search, they could have found many resources explaining why the "no intrinsic value" argument is a poor one as it pertains to Bitcoin. Here's one 4.22min counter https://t.co/zw05ZfpLB9
In a nutshell, fine art collectables, fiat currency, and the monetary premium of both real estate and gold also has no "intrinsic value". Yet funds have no issue investing in those.
The comment says more about the commenter than it does about Bitcoin, and is reminiscent of the laggards who failed to see the value of paying for software because "it doesn't exist in space"
Secondly the assessment "risky" is even more problematic, as it shows Vanguard has spent very little time doing any nuanced thinking about Bitcoin.
For example: UK's first Pension Fund took a 3% allocation to Bitcoin precisely because it reduced risk in their pension fund, while concurrently increasing the odds of over-performance.
They modelled the scenario when bitcoin went to zero (double-Black Swan event) as well as the mid-case, finding that in the double-Black Swan case, it would take 3 aditional months to reach their 10 year investment objectives, but in the mid-case scenario, they would realize their investment goals 2 years early.
So it was either "a little bit bad" or "a lot good". A very good outcome.
Secondly, with Bitcoin now at 2Trillion as an asset class, they realized that future increased in BTC market cap would be pulled out of other asset classes, namely, the other assets they held (Real Estate, Gold, Bonds, Equities). Therefore, if Bitcoin succeeded and they had not invested, not only would they have lost an investment opportunity, but they would have failed to take appropriate risk mitigation hedging against the case where Bitcoin succeeded.
Therefore they also invested a small allocation to Bitcoin as a risk mitigation hedge.
The days where you can prattle off the well worn Bitcoin-slurs of "risky" and "no intrinsic value" as a financial advisor, in lieu of sustantive nuanced reasoning and understanding are fast disappearing.
If a financial advisor mentions either of these terms in reference to Bitcoin, it is a good cue to change your financial advisor.
As I say, Bitcoin is not right for every portfolio, but it is right for most portfolios. And your financial advisor should give you solid reasons not to invest in Bitcoin that show they understand their domain.
Vanguard, first with missing the ETF boat, and again today, have demonstrated that they do not.
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BTC Markets’ @carobowler stated, "Crypto is not a dirty word. Policymakers must be open to the opportunities of cryptocurrencies, which are reshaping finance. Australia risks missing out if it dismisses this evolution."
https://t.co/URKVzseVw4
#Crypto#DigitalAssets#Bitcoin
Bitcoin loves hydropower
Ethiopia uses 98% renewable energy and now represents 2.25% of global hashrate
Bitcoin mining has also contributed $55M to the economy of Ethiopia - much of it surplus energy that would have flowed over the top of the dam
https://t.co/bK6gsfOZpT
OK, so here's what you can do to help. When it comes to educating the general public about the ESG value of Bitcoin mining, films, art, charts, other plebs are doing a great job.
But that's not enough for institutional investors. They have very specific ESG questions they need answers to, and they need to feel they are speaking to someone who sees the world through the same impact investment lens they do. They can tell the difference between someone who was a Bitcoiner first then learnt that Bitcoin was good for the environment, versus someone who was an impact investor and Bitcoin skeptic first who learnt through firsthand research that Bitcoin was environmentally net positive.
The latter is the category I'm in, and it's probably for that reason to date when I've been able to get in front of fund managers with ESG concerns, they tend not to have not only not have those concerns by the end of our conversation, but they've generally flipped to seeing Bitcoin is the most ESG-friendly investment they could have.
It doesn't take months. It doesn't "open them up to finding out more". They change their minds in a single conversation or presentation.
The problem is, I only know so many fund managers and SWF advisors. So I need your help so that we can accelerate this process. Right now, it is very risky for these Sovereign Funds to NOT invest in Bitcoin.
Apart from also doing this with NGOs and mitigating Landfill gas with Bitcoin mining, I cannot think of anything more impactful that I could be doing in Bitcoin at this time which is a better use of my time.
Let's do this!