I’ve been building my bearish conviction for over 100 days now, and so many things are aligning.
We’re in a fractal that BTC has formed in the last three cycles right before entering a bear market.
Old “dino” coins like Monero and ZEC are going parabolic, while new meme coins are also sending — a classic late-cycle signal.
Last cycle, I bought ApeCoin near the top.
That was what originally pulled me into crypto.
Now I’m seeing the same behavior again: new people coming in and buying memes and old dino coins.
Even people who have never touched stocks or crypto are suddenly buying gold and silver.
That, to me, is a clear sign of a market top.
My uncle bought XRP at the absolute top — he’s never been in crypto or any speculative market before.
That happened when BTC was around 123k.
I should’ve recognized the signal sooner, but hindsight is always clearer.
At this point, I’m officially bearish.
The maniplation phase $BTC
The stage of the cycle where traders continuously lower their price target.
There's nothing wrong with being early on an asset that has already dropped 52% and completed 80% of its bear market.
$BTC
Bitcoin has formed bearish divergence that I was talking about with the RSI. Price made a higher high while RSI made a lower high. Bearish divergence. We also filled the CME gap.
$BTC
What I am looking at is if Bitcoin just goes up and fills the CME gap from the dump over the weekend, then rejects, while RSI creates bearish divergence.
Observe carefully...
USDT.D has yet to create a new ATH this cycle
Every time $BTC tops, USDT.D tends to push higher and break previous highs.
Why does this happen?
@tether (USDT) supply keeps expanding, meaning there is simply more stablecoin liquidity in the system each cycle.
Every cycle, more capital stays parked in stables during drops, creating a larger risk off pool.
With more liquidity available, when BTC sells off, there is a stronger rotation into USDT than in previous cycles
So structurally, this increases the probability of USDT.D making a higher high during bear markets.
If this dynamic continues, we can expect USDT.D to break its previous ATH before BTC fully bottoms this cycle.
$BTC
What I am looking at is if Bitcoin just goes up and fills the CME gap from the dump over the weekend, then rejects, while RSI creates bearish divergence.
$BTC
This is showing volume is decreasing, while Bitcoin futures is slowly grinding up.
Spot is selling, and longs are paying for shorts.
So it look's to me like this pump is driven by futures not spot.
$BTC
Three different bear markets. Same bottoming structure every time.
This hasn’t played out yet in this cycle.
My view remains simple, this time likely isn’t different. There’s no edge in fighting a pattern that’s repeated at every bear market bottom for over a decade. This is the scenario I’m positioning for.
The magenta circle move is likely to unfold within the next month or so.
To add some historical context: not all bids always get filled.
So, even if there’s a massive buy wall reaching down to the 45K range, it doesn’t necessarily mean the $BTC will reach that level.
Sometimes, bids are left unfilled or used as spoof to lure prices lower.
That said, buying spot anywhere from the current price (67K) down to the mid-50K range will likely be exceptional long-term entries, positions you’ll look back on favorably a year from now.
Remember, we don’t need to fill every single bid; there’s often an opportunity to front-run them.
You already know my long term spot plan, I have been filled on spot entries at 69K, 65K & 60K.
Reference for my HTF Plan:
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Inside, I share the frameworks and tools I use to analyse markets, including time-based price action concepts for assets like $BTC.
This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.