Putting my thoughts together on exiting '25 and heading into '26.
The 10/10 ~30% drawdown and the chop since then look very healthy in hindsight. Excess leverage was flushed, and expectations were reset. We saw similar setups in summer โ21 and late โ17.
Looking into Q1 and maybe Q2, I expect crypto to catch up to precious metals momentum. Not all at once, but I think we see ATHs by Q3...
$BTC leads, $ETH and quality alts follow, then the "metas" below, which will ebb and flow as liquidity moves through the hierarchy. Same structure, new participants.
Some specific '26 predictions:
TradFi crypto crossover gets interesting:
- We get a gamified options trading winner.
- One dominant platform emerges for on-chain TradFi assets with leverage.
Gaming and entertainment will not be broad:
- I expect one breakout winner in H1 that captures attention disproportionately (think TopShot). My bet is already placed.
Prediction markets feel mostly solved:
- PolyMarket and Kalshi are hard to displace.
- Many low-effort attempts will appear but add little net value.
Zooming out, 2026 offers plenty of opportunity, but I am approaching it slower and more risk-aware. My goal is to opt in to more sustainable returns rather than quick wins. I do not think this macro cycle lasts deep into โ27, but I would love to be wrong.
@Cbb0fe@travisbickle0x@0xTrapdoor gave these morons a gem of an idea and they ran it into the ground after ripping 10s of millions off the backs of the players. It's a shame.