Smri

As one of the biggest Bitcoin bulls from 3k $BTC in 2017 till now, it is super important to take the time to really UNDERSTAND the implications of the chart below. Top half is XRP/BTC and the bottom half is BTC. Before we jump into the chart- let's set the stage with a bit of background: As I've said since 2018, Bitcoin is always the first to lead out of bear markets into a new bull run and alts always lag initially and then pick up steam towards the end of the cycle with their biggest moves post BTC cycle top (this is when we see the greatest amount of profit taking on $BTC, and hundreds of billions of dollars of outflow into alts combined with new inflow from a euphoric and greedy retail cohort). At 3k, Bitcoin was a great buy, at 15k Bitcoin was a great buy, at 30k Bitcoin was still a solid buy, and I was staunchly bullish every single time we had reached any of those regions. However, after finally cracking 100k+, and despite my belief that we still have higher to go for Bitcoin in this cycle, the reality is that R/R and expected ROI from current levels does not favor buying $BTC over alts at these levels if you plan to take profits by the end of the current cycle (assumption here is the cycle will end somewhere between now and 300k BTC AND that you are buying alts with real utility, that are down 90+% from their highs, and that have favorable HTF chart structures). There is one caveat- if you are a professional trader and the best trader on earth, then you may be able to perfectly time a rotation from Bitcoin to alts at the exact moment that ALT/BTC pairings are at their pico bottom- for 99% of you (including myself) this is not realistically achievable most of the time- and so- the only other option is to begin to DCA into select, high conviction alts, when you deem them to be at a relatively good R/R zone. Now that we have got that out of the way, let's take a look at the chart. I will again emphasize it is VITAL to understand the point being made here, and it may seem a bit complex to grasp initially- so stay with me and re-read this as many times as you need to until it clicks... The upper portion of the chart is XRP/BTC and the lower portion is $BTC. What I want you to focus on here is the current XRP/BTC ratio of .0000212 that we are now trading at. In simple terms, if you bought $XRP at any time in the past when the XRP/BTC ratio was BELOW this point, then you have outperformed against $BTC from that point until now. To make this easier to visualize, I've highlighted this portion of time in BLUE on the XRP/BTC chart. You'll notice that during this entire time, XRP was underperforming against $BTC (signaled by XRP/BTC bleeding lower for most of this period). For over 460 days, $XRP underperformed, and sentiment here on socials mirrored that- with anyone choosing to buy $XRP over $BTC being mocked, called "crazy", "stupid", "delusional" and the like. And then, in a matter of literally 23 DAYS, XRP shot up over 7x, and in 23 days, the 460+ days of underperformance were made IRRELEVANT as the ROI on $XRP was now GREATER than the ROI on $BTC for anyone who purchased $XRP in that 460 day window of relative underperformance we mentioned earlier. To put this in perspective- if you bought $XRP at ANY point in time during that 460 day window, then today, at current prices of XRP and BTC, you will have outperformed ANYONE who bought $BTC ANYWHERE above 25k. Let that sink in. If you bought $XRP as far back as August of '23- over two years ago- and simply held it until expansion, then you outperformed every Bitcoin buyer that bought BTC at 30k, 35k, 40k, 50k, 60k, etc. DESPITE over 450 days of relative underperformance prior to that 23 day expansion. And THIS is why I have been railing on about the same 4-5 alts for years at their HTF, macro lows, because despite their current underperformance (which is expected), unless you are the best trader on earth, you will likely STRUGGLE to position yourself without a DCA approach in these markets- where an alt can be dormant for years and then erase all that bearish PA in 1/20th of the time. Now consider all of the above, but consider that $BTC now sits at 90k, not 3k, not 15k, and not 30k, but 90k, 30x above the cycle bottom at 3k, and 6x above the more recent 5th wave origin at 15k. We are now at a place where the R/R on BTC vs (sound) alts is far worse than it was in the example above, especially on coins like $CRV that sit at macro range lows. Let's put prior ATH highs aside for a second and consider that even a 3x on $CRV from current levels- from .35 to $1- is the equivalent of $BTC moving up from current levels to $240,000 in terms of ROI. So, bottom line, people can continue to whine about alts not moving and talking about how it's silly to invest in them, but I will continue to beat the drum on this as long as I need to because in the end its clear to me what's coming, as it was for $XRP and as it will be for many others. We already KNOW $BTC leads out of major corrections- it is not a profound statement to say that "BTC will outperform right now". However, for those that are patient and able to look 10 steps ahead instead of 2, the real opportunity at this point in time is in high quality, fundamentally sound, and structurally solid alts- even if you have to wait for $BTC to top before we see the largest moves on them.