Most people chase pumps. I chase liquidity.
Hereโs My Crypto Playbook for the Next 6 Months ๐
1/ Crypto isnโt about guessing the next meme coin. Itโs about tracking liquidity, narratives & risk โ because thatโs what really drives price.
#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum
Hereโs how Iโm positioning myself ๐
BREAKING: Anthropic's pre-IPO valuation surges to a record $1.2 trillion, rising another +20% in 7 days.
This officially puts Anthropic's implied valuation up +900% since October 2025, per onchain pre-IPO trading data.
Pre-IPO instruments trading onchain on Jupiter, backed 1:1 by SPV exposure, are providing a real-time proxy for the companyโs implied IPO valuation.
This now makes Anthropic ~20% larger than OpenAI's pre-IPO implied valuation.
If Anthropic were to IPO at a $1.2 trillion valuation, it would be the 11th most valuable public company in the world.
The AI Revolution is accelerating.
๐จ BREAKING: CRACKS APPEARING IN THE FINANCIAL GIANTS
For the first time in its history, BlackRockโs $26 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund is facing major withdrawal pressure.
Investors requested $1.2 billion in redemptions in a single quarter โ more than 9% of the fundโs total assets.
Thatโs nearly double the 5% threshold where managers can begin restricting withdrawals.
BlackRock is only paying out $620 million, limiting the rest.
For years, private credit funds were sold as the โsafe new frontierโ of finance โ massive returns, steady income, endless liquidity.
Now the first real test is beginning.
No one is calling it a crisis yet.
But when investors start rushing for the exit in markets that were supposedly โunshakable,โ it raises a serious question:
Was this boom built on solid groundโฆ or on too much money chasing too few real assets?
A copper shortage is coming next:
The world economy is projected to face a copper deficit of 10 million tonnes by 2040, equivalent to ~33% of current global demand.
This comes as global copper demand is estimated to surge to 42 million tonnes by 2040, from 28 million tonnes in 2025.
Asia alone is expected to reflect 60% of total demand growth over this time, driven by EV adoption and grid upgrades.
At the same time, AI data center copper demand is set to surge +127% to 2.5 million tonnes by 2040.
Meanwhile, supply is expected to peak at ~34 million tonnes in 2030 before declining to ~32 million tonnes by 2040.
Copper is the next global strategic commodity.
Here are my thoughts from this yearโs World Economic Forum. If youโre interested in understanding more about how the world order is changing and what it all means, you can sign up here for my newsletter in the comments below.
I spent 100โs of hours writing research on tether for @Citi.
@CryptoHayes missed a few key points.
1) ๐๐ก๐๐ข๐ซ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ญ๐ฌ =/ ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ญ๐ฌ
When tether generates $ they have a separate equity balance sheet which they donโt report publicly. The numbers they disclose are under a โmatchingโ philosophy; theyโre just showing you how their reserves are backed.
The equity balance is sheet is made up of equity investments, mining operations, corporate reserves & possibly more BTC, with the rest distributed as dividends to shareholders.
2) ๐๐ก๐๐ฒโ๐ซ๐ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ข๐ซ ๐๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฏ๐๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐๐ฅ๐. ๐๐ก๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐ง ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฏ๐๐ซ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ ๐๐ฉ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ข๐ซ ๐๐๐ฅ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐๐๐ญ.
Tether has ~$120bn in interest yielding treasuries which have been yielding ~4% since 2023. Thatโs ~$10bn in liquid PnL with little cost (150 employees), making it one of the most efficient cash generating businesses in the world.
Iโm guessing this would make their equity worth somewhere in the $50-100bn range. Although theyโve reported theyโre looking to raise $20bn for 3% which would put them at ~$500bn+ valuation. Probably wonโt materialise, and likely overvalued, but still highly valuable equity.
3) ๐๐๐ง๐ค๐ฌ ๐จ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐ญ๐ ๐จ๐ง ๐ฌ๐ข๐ ๐ง๐ข๐๐ข๐๐๐ง๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐๐ซ ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ซ๐ฏ๐๐ฌ. ๐-๐๐% ๐จ๐ ๐๐๐ง๐ค ๐๐๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ก๐๐ฅ๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ฅ๐ข๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ญ๐ฌ, ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐จ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ซ ๐๐%+ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ก๐๐ฅ๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ฌ๐ข๐ ๐ง๐ข๐๐ข๐๐๐ง๐ญ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐จ๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ข๐ช๐ฎ๐ข๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ญ๐ฌ.
Tether is different but holds similar qualities to a Bank in this regard, and is significantly better collateralised. A key difference is banks are backed by Lender of last resort (Central Bank) but Tether is not.
TLDR: Tether isnโt going insolvent, quite the opposite; they own a money printing machine.
๐จ Why markets are dumping?
๐ Japanโs bond yields are surging to 2008 highs, signaling the BOJ may raise rates for the first time in years at its December 19 meeting.
๐ Japan was the worldโs cheap-money engine. For decades, investors borrowed low-rate yen and poured it into global markets, fueling the carry trade.
๐ Now higher Japanese yields are pulling money back home, putting pressure on the long-running yen carry trade.
๐ Japan is adding more short-term debt issuance, pushing yields even higher and speeding up the capital shift back to Japan.
๐ A stronger yen is squeezing leveraged global positions, forcing investors to unwind trades and sell risk assets.
๐ Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries.
Any reduction in buying or selling directly impacts U.S. funding.
๐ This comes at the worst possible time for the U.S.
America needs record borrowing to fund 1.8 trillion dollar deficits, and interest costs have already exceeded 1 trillion dollars a year.
๐ Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has stepped back from buying Treasuries, and China continues to reduce its holdings.
๐ So two major buyers of U.S. debt, Japan and China, are stepping away just when America needs them most.
๐ Rising global yields are draining liquidity, triggering selling across equities, bonds, and crypto.
Hope this helps you understand why markets are dumping. Keep an eye on the U.S. market opening at 7 PM IST. Further weakness in U.S. stocks can trigger more pain across global markets.
โBig Shortโ Investor Michael Burryโs Final Warning: The $9.2M Bet That Could Break Silicon Valley
Heโs calling out inflated valuations, massive AI infrastructure spending, hidden risks, and echoes of past bubbles.
The man who called 2008 is sounding the alarm again. #AIBubble
BURRYโS FINAL WARNING: The $9.2M Bet That Ends Silicon Valley
The man who called 2008 while Wall Street laughed just walked away from public markets forever.
Michael Burry didnโt just short Palantir. He executed the most asymmetric trade in financial history: $9.2 million for the right to collect $240 million when AI collapses. Thatโs 2,600% returns when the bubble pops.
The Numbers Donโt Lie:
Palantir: 449x earnings. Trading at $184. Burryโs strike: $50.
NVIDIA: Burning cash on chips obsolete in 36 months, depreciating them over 10 years.
The entire AI sector: Hiding $176 billion in fake accounting through 2028.
This is Enron mathematics. This is subprime CDOs wearing a silicon mask.
What Nobody Sees:
Big Tech spent $200 billion building AI infrastructure in 2025 alone. Revenue growth? Under 20%. The energy costs? Enough to power entire nations. The depreciation fraud? Bigger than anything in corporate history.
Burry spotted it. Filed his 50,000 put contracts. Then did something unprecedented: he deregistered his entire fund on November 10th, vanishing from regulatory oversight exactly like he did in 2008 when the pressure broke him.
This Is Not A Trade. This Is A Prophecy.
When Palantirโs CEO called him crazy, Burry went silent. No defense. No explanation. Just one cryptic post: November 25th. Something unchained.
Heโs not managing money anymore. Heโs not playing games. He placed the bet, walked away from the table, and left instructions for what comes after.
The man who warned us about housing while banks collapsed is now warning us about AI while tech soars 173% this year.
Last time, it took 18 months to be proven right.
Last time, he made $100 million and nearly lost his mind.
This time, heโs not waiting around to watch.โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
Full article here - https://t.co/vVpFcN1Wzf
โBig Shortโ Investor Michael Burryโs Final Warning: The $9.2M Bet That Could Break Silicon Valley
Heโs calling out inflated valuations, massive AI infrastructure spending, hidden risks, and echoes of past bubbles.
The man who called 2008 is sounding the alarm again. #AIBubble
The way I'm thinking of it..
Is that the $BTC cycle is definitely over.
That is, the cycle of DAT buying, SBR hype, and record ETF flows.
BUT, here's the caveat. "Cycle is over" as a headline freaks people out - as they instantly get 2022/23 PTSD - but it really depends on your definition of "cycle".
I'm not a subscriber of the 4-year cycle, as crypto is more driven by macro/flows/narrative now than ever.
Currently, we're in the process of finding a floor as we wait for the *next* cycle trigger.
Very likely that it's driven by debasement/AI energy race/liquidity expansion.
This could come in a matter of weeks/months.
It doesn't have to be 4 years.
BTC is a macro asset now.
Adapt and play accordingly.
Bad news is now "good news" for stocks:
As the US unemployment rate surges to 4.4%, its highest in 4 years, stock market futures are surging.
Why is this happening?
The reality is that the Fed is being forced to cut interest rates into one of the strongest stock markets of all time.
Because, even as the AI Revolution takes off and the Magnificent 7 exceeds $20 TRILLION in market cap, Americans are struggling.
The labor market is weak, affordability is at record lows, and over 60% of Americans believe we are in a recession.
This is exactly why we continue to reiterate: "own assets or be left behind."
As the Fed cuts rates to save Main Street, Wall Street will skyrocket as the Fed adds fuel to a roaring fire.
We have two economies in the US: asset owners and non-asset owners.
The US wealth gap will hit unprecedented levels.
Are we in an AI bubble?
Huangโs point was simple: this isnโt a hype bubble, but early phases of a long-term technological reset. And because GPUs sit at the foundation of these three shifts, NVIDIA sees this as durable, multi-year infrastructure demand, not temporary excitement.