crypto

[TechFlow 深潮｜APP 已上线 @TechFlowPost]

有个博主花 11 天刷完了油管 141 个投资视频，21 个频道，一只股票一只股票记下来。被反复点名的只剩 5 家：谷歌、英伟达、美光、CoreWeave、优步。

《大空头》主角原型 Eisman 看完这些的反应是直接卖掉谷歌。他的原话：「It's all just one trade，so it better succeed。」这是一笔交易，要么全赢，要么全输。

Brian 把 141 个视频的主题数了一遍：76 个在讲芯片、云、AI 模型，正好超过一半。你以为这 5 只是分散持仓，其实其中 4 只（谷歌、英伟达、美光、CoreWeave）是同一笔 AI 赌注穿了 4 个名字。连「唯一独立」的优步，它的风险（无人驾驶）也跑在英伟达的芯片上。

1/ 抄共识股清单，等于把分散做成假的

141 个视频，76 个讲同一件事。如果你的自选股是从这类视频攒出来的，你持有的是 5 家公司还是 1 笔赌注穿了 5 个名字，值得翻出来看一遍。

Brian 自己承认 guilty：「我的清单也是这么攒的。」

2/ 谷歌现价 362 美元，便宜和贵同时成立，所以只开半仓定投

按已赚到的利润算，谷歌是 10 年来最便宜的一档。按销售额算，是 10 年来最贵的 3%。同一只股票两个相反结论，差别只在看财报哪一行。巴菲特的伯克希尔刚翻倍加仓进持仓前三。

Brian 的做法：半仓+按月定投，不重仓。有博主直播做过实验：先问观众多少价位卖谷歌，公布巴菲特加仓消息后再问，所有人全改口。一条新闻就能让你丢掉自己的规矩。

3/ 英伟达估值说便宜三分之一，违约保险在翻倍

有博主拿 Excel 算出每股值 300 美元，现价 221 美元，看起来便宜了四分之一以上。但客户们借了 5,000 亿美元买芯片，接近英伟达年营收两倍，债务违约保险从 5 月底以来翻倍。

Brian 自己算 290 美元，但仓位已到 12%上限。148 美元以下他坚决不接：真跌到那里，是接飞刀。

4/ 美光的纪律最值得抄：961 是开关，434 是故事线

合理价约 1,450 美元听起来空间巨大，但两个数字要一起看：按已实现利润 22 倍，按明年预期利润 6 倍。两个数同时成立的前提是市场默认利润翻 3 倍。周期股顶部恰恰经常看起来便宜。

他的操作：50 日均线 961 美元，跌破按计划继续买（一分不多加），站回线上才加码；跌到 434 美元说明公司坏了，之前的分析全部作废。

5/ CoreWeave 有 1300 亿订单，他一股不买

1999 年的朗讯：借钱给客户，客户拿这钱买朗讯设备，朗讯记成自己的收入，客户破产后需求现原形。现在英伟达在 SEC 文件里同意租回 CoreWeave 到 2032 年租不出去的所有算力。结构上同一件事。

CoreWeave 上市才 17 个月，历史不够画阶梯，Brian 的整板表上这一行写着「站着看」。他强调：站着观望和持有是两码事。

6/ 优步是唯一不是 AI 赌注的一只，两个人独立算价只差 10 美元

每年约 100 亿美元自由现金，市值 1,500 亿，10 年最便宜的三分之一。有博主独立算的合理价是 120 美元，Brian 自己算的是 109 美元，两人从没看过对方的工作，只差 5%。现价 67 美元。

担心的事只有一件：无人驾驶要么抢乘客，要么逼它自己养车队。Brian 给到整张表最深的买入档。

Eisman 那句话值得再放一遍：“It's all just one trade。”

5 只股票，1 笔 AI 赌注。买之前先想清楚：这个赌注要是输了，你的组合里还剩什么。

[Star_OKX @star_okx]

首富这是来蹭热点了😂

都是行业老人，互联网是有记忆的。

自己的故事都讲不完，就别急着教育别人了。Full of bullshit.

[Desmond Shum @DesmondShum]

Apparently my X post about Bo Xilai / @BoKuangyi became part of a much bigger storm around Guagua. Millions of views have now been generated across related posts and YouTube content.

The following video was very well done, explaining the whole episode and laying out my views clearly. Too bad it’s only in Chinese.

妖妖酱这个video做得很好啊！把整个事件的来龙去脉都讲清楚了，也把我的观点阐述得很清晰。

但其实前半段的事情我根本不知道。我只是看到瓜瓜发了一个关于他爸的 X post，所以才写了我第一篇回应。

我的X posts基本上全是英文。我不想参与中文圈里面的打打杀杀、你来我往。对我来说，X更像是我的一个公开日记，记录我平日的一些观察、思考和随笔。

这次算是趟了一次浑水。

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Here's the angle I'm looking at $SIVE at:

Companies/CSPs have been going out of their way way to lock up any qualified CW laser capacity for optical transceivers.

So now, Sivers is coming into the industry with:

- Large capacity from Win Semi
- "tremendous capacity that is available now" from a new foundry (likely qualifications since 2024) since it's engaged "for a while"

And what excited me from this earnings was the "6 pluggable/module" engagements (which is an enormous amount).

The nuance I'm reading is:

- $COHR said it sees no near term ability to sell InP lasers externally because internal transceiver demand consumes all available
- $AAOI said the same about consuming laser capacity internally (wasn't a major merchant supplier before though).
- $LITE has been bottlenecked and been buying lasers off the open market

Your previous merchant players rerouted laser capacity internally.

So a lot of the bigger names (eg. Eoptolink/Innolight as just a random example) are probably looking to source more lasers.

And that kinda matches the quote "capable of very rapid qualification and ramp" (which would not match Series B startup)...

Lot of people are asking why aren't there LTAs to 2030 then?

-> You can't just randomly escape the qualification process that established players have already completed.

Why aren't the customers disclosed?

And as seen with the $MRVL + $POET engagement, you can't just disclose the vendors you're working with.

But the "$1.2B opportunity pipeline" almost doubled relative to the jump of $JBL + $GFS. So it's signals that the new pluggable engagements might be pretty substantial relative to Jabil.

So if $SIVE comes along with enormous amounts of CW DFB laser capacity during a supply shortage...

The industry conditions have changed in a major way that increases conversion rates of engagements.

And with the sheer size from all your ~est. customers jabil, globalfoundries, poet, aeva, lightium, ayar, (maybe lightmatter, celestial, lightelligence), 6 other pluggable players, and others.

I think Sivers is going to cook after connecting the dots.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$SIVE ER transcript just dropped, TLDR:

- 6 NEW pluggable players working with Sivers now.

Probably the biggest news of the entire ER next to new foundry allocations.

"3 are in alpha sample evaluation stage" and another 3 in technical engagement / supply assessment stage."

And now it makes more sense why their $1.2B revenue pipeline ballooned (since this was a bigger leap than Jabil).

- Initial production orders with $JBL expected in the first half of 2027, with the production ramp planned second half of 2027

LFG, Jabil is a massive hyperscaler supplier and finally got clear timelines on revenue from volume ramp.

- "new foundry partner who has brought on tremendous capacity that is available now"

This is what I wanted to hear. Apparently they've been in the works for this for awhile since it's "available now", and THIS IS VERY MATERIAL.

CW lasers are in a massive shortage and $SIVE brought on new supply outside of Win Semi (also de-risks).

As you hear with other qualified CW players (anything they make gets sold), so as Sivers partners finishes their qualifications, I'm expecting the same.

- "long-term capacity model where one-third of manufacturing capacity will be internal, while two-thirds will come from our foundry partners"

Lukewarm on this, it makes sense they need to be vertically integrated like $AAOI / $LITE eventually but implies more capex (better after NASDAQ listing).

As you see with ESMT + DDR2 bottlenecks, the operating income they get from just securing wafers during shortages and doing fabless models is incredible.

And it would make more sense to fund this with cashflow down the road.

- NASDAQ listing ongoing. CFO gave a very lawyer like answer, but on track as usual.

- "We do not see production capacity as a bottleneck at this point in time"

This is very meaningful since with their new foundry partners, implies $SIVE is coming online with a very material CW laser supply to a bottlenecked market.

TLDR:
- NEW substantial FOUNDRY ALLOCATION! (very, very material during CW laser shortage)
- 6 new pluggable players outside of $JBL
- Clear revenue ramp timelines from Jabil

Heavy focus on pluggables -> NPO -> CPO seems like the progression. Only lukewarm piece was building up internal capacity but it's long term positive.

Anyway, very happy after reading the transcript aside from potential capex prioritizing laser capacity (which is fine too during an industry shortage) over IP acquisition.

The 6 new pluggable players + substantial wafer allocation "available now" is a pretty insane disclosure.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

$SIVE earnings just got released:

$1.2 billion revenue opportunity pipeline growth up 268% from December (incredible growth).

Last ER: $799M (this was a surprise, likely linked to Jabil)

July 2026: ~$1.2B (hinting more either more customer engagements than what's announced or larger volume ramps within programs).

"Sivers continued to reallocate resources from NRE projects toward product ramp preparation.

Sivers expects the impact of this transition to become visible in Q4 2026 and accelerate through 2027 as multiple programs progress toward volume production."

Makes sense on timelines.

Current financials reflect a qualification-stage player before volume ramp:

- $5.64M in revenue (reducing NRE activity, shifting to volume ramps soon)
-$3.72M in adjusted EBITDA (what to look at given one-off charges, eg. social security accounting expense)

Key thing to look at is earnings call in 30 minutes, very excited so far.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I know everyone’s watching $NVDA earnings right now…

But did you know Landmark signed a 4 year CW agreement with US customer to ensure “sufficient supply”?

So now you have:

- $LITE (capacity gone)
- $COHR (capacity gone)
- Landmark (capacity committed)
- $AAOI (capacity for transceivers)
- $MTSI (not online)
- $SMTC (limited)

I remember saying earlier this year CW lasers would be the next optical shift and heavily bottlenecked by Nvidia?

So fun watching this play out, with players signing LTAs already to 2030 (signaling less availability for other players).

Implications for $SIVE / Win Semi are very material as one of the few remaining CW merchant suppliers with capacity (+ CPO-grade lasers).

Let’s see how they execute.

[TechFlow 深潮｜APP 已上线 @TechFlowPost]

$ETH 这两周虽然暴力反弹回到了 2,500 美元上方，但如果把时间线稍微拉长，大部分在今年高位被套的人，账面上依然难受。

而 作为以太坊最大的明牌巨鲸，@Fundstrat 和他的 BitMine 在过去 14 个月顶着一路阴跌狂买了 582 万枚 ETH，持仓量已经快到全网供应近 5%了。

哪怕买到今天账面大概率还在浮亏，Tom Lee 却丝毫没有减速的意思，甚至在最新的 Bankless 播客里直接放话：新一轮牛市 ETH 至少看 5,000 美元，1-2 年内轻松冲上 10,000 美元。

为什么越跌越买？这近 600 万枚砸不穿的底牌到底是什么？ 整场播客信息量极大，Tom Lee 拆解了几个极具启发性的实操细节：

1. 质押现金流彻底锁死抛压

很多人担心 BitMine 买成第一大持仓后，一旦资金链吃紧会成为市场最大的“达摩克利斯之剑”。

Tom Lee 直接给市场吃了定心丸：BitMine 每年靠 ETH 质押能产生约 3 亿美元 的收益，而他们发行的优先股（BMNP）每年只需支付 3,000 万至 3,500 万美元的股息。

质押现金流完全覆盖了负债成本，不仅零财务压力、绝不卖币，甚至还有余力拿剩下的未质押 ETH 去做生态布局。

2. 华尔街式的“无杠杆看涨期权”

BitMine 全程没有发行可转债，也没有高息借贷。 他们发行的 9.5% 优先股 BMNP，在 Tom Lee 眼里本质上是用极低成本锁定的一张 3 年期 ETH 平价看涨期权（正常在市场上买期权费接近 100%）。

只要 ETH 未来翻倍，质押收益就会远超股息，让股东享受到极大的资本杠杆。

3. 5% 只是观察哨，买入远未结束

买到 5% 之后还会不会继续买？Tom Lee 表示如果企业和机构开始把 ETH 视为长期资产，买穿 5% 完全合理，他们将在 2027 年正式评估扩容计划。

同时，公司最近 5 周已经开始回购股票，为的就是在价格起飞前集中每股的“含 ETH 量”。

4. ETH 是“土地”，AI 是其最大的下游买家

针对市场上“AI 抽干加密资金”的论调，Tom Lee 给出不同视角：加密是 AI 的下游故事。随着 AI 代理网络成熟，机器对机器的高频交易、链上结算与资产代币化需求将呈指数级爆发。

ETH 的核心逻辑不是生息债券，而是承载这些算力结算的“数字地产”。

尽管 Tom Lee 的个人财富与 ETH 深度绑定且利益相关，喊单难免带有屁股决定脑袋的成分，但现在的市场需要多头来提振信心，Tom Lee 的公开表态显然也能起到宣传效果。

[crypto @cryptoytc]

@FortuneCutie00 @ToBulaer @ToBuerma @KawasawaSen @BulmaList 可以看看玉足吗

[TechFlow 深潮｜APP 已上线 @TechFlowPost]

全网恐怕没几个人比 Michael Saylor更懂怎么买比特币了。

不光自己买，如何 CX 同一个甚至更高 Level 的人买，是一门学问。

刚刚微策略甚至发布了一份长达 21 页的《比特币投资指南》，本质上是一本写给华尔街“老钱”、家族办公室以及圈外保守投资者的“布道手册”。

如果你认识圈外老钱，或者想向传统投资者安利比特币，这份指南给出了极其高明的叙事重塑与实操框架：

1. 降维重估，聊聊“数字资本”
圈外人最爱问：“比特币买不了菜，有啥用？”
Saylor 给老钱们的科普极其直接：比特币根本不是支付货币，它是 21 世纪的“数字资本”（Digital Capital）。
目前全球房地产总值约 393 万亿美元，固收与股市各约 160 万亿美元，黄金 15 万亿美元，而比特币仅 1.55 万亿美元。
房子和黄金之所以贵，是因为它们承载了全球富人的“储值溢价”。
比特币不需要取代美元，它只要凭借极高的便携性和稀缺性，从这几百万亿的传统蓄水池里吸走一小部分溢价，价格就能呈指数级膨胀。

2.怕回撤，看看“四年法则”

传统资本最怕的就是大暴跌。Saylor 怎么打消他们的顾虑呢？用历史数据喂定心丸。

这份指南回溯了 2010 年以来的所有数据：在统计的 4,419 个滚动 4 年持有周期中，历史盈利概率为 100%。 哪怕是在历史最高点买入（2021 年 4 月至 2025 年 4 月），只要拿满 4 年，总回报率依然有 +32.6%，而中位数回报高达 +1306%。

这告诉圈外人：不要去交易它，只要把资金久期拉长到一个减半周期（4年），时间就能抹平绝大多数的波动风险。

3. 保命的仓位管理
散户入场想的是“能赚几倍”，机构入场第一件事是算“怎么才能不死”。

对于完全不懂比特币的高净值人群，指南给出了一个极其清晰的建仓公式：

最大持仓比例 = 投资组合能承受的最大总亏损 ÷ 预设的比特币极端跌幅

如果你总资产只能承受 2% 的回撤，且预设大盘会经历 75% 的深熊暴跌，那你买比特币的仓位上限就是约 2.67%。用严格的数学纪律切断情绪梭哈，让传统资金可以毫无心理负担地完成初始配置。

Saylor 也发帖让大家学习这个指南，仓位决定发言很正常。

但好处在于，他不仅自己在买，还在为整个传统金融圈建立一套可以自洽的买入逻辑与风控体系。

这波牛回，BTC 还有 Saylor， ETH 还有 Tom Lee 喊单；而有些人已经因为高杠杆和赌徒心态，却把自己提前洗下牌桌了。

[Jealousy 尼卡 @eastweb3eth]

做美股几个你应该重点关注的账号

1. @aleabitoreddit
白毛股神，估计不少人都听说过。除了她推的具体票，我感觉对普通人最有用的其实是她的选股方法——卡脖子理论：在大公司的供应链里，找那些能卡住脖子的关键环节。现在 AI 产业链正火，等下一波风口来了，这套方法照样能用。有时候学大佬的“打法”，不如学他的“心法”。

2. @jukan05
黑毛股神，很有自己风格的投资大神。目前也是分享关于AI领域的信息和见解。他的 $AAOI 基本是买在这个阶段的底部了。

3. @xiaomustock
川沐老师我是多次推荐了，从去年开始就关注AI及相关领域的投资大神，但是不知道为什么川沐老师好几天没更新了，上次更新还是21号。

4. @qinbafrank
Frank 大佬，我之前同样推荐过，见解独到，而且他的推文经常会分享自己的深度思考，非常值得点上小铃铛。

5. @JinYu762
金鱼老师，最近刚崛起的账号，分享的美股信息价值很多，而且很多推荐很有自己的想法。特别是一些内容很适合美股新手观看。

6. @eastweb3eth
最后推荐一下我，经常分享美股的内容和工具，尽自己所能把内容做好~

[总裁简报 CEO Briefing @CEOBriefing]

俞敏洪此前直播连线任泽平，聊到许家印。任泽平说，“许家印是一个比较有企业家精神的人，我在恒大建言降负债，开会竟被批评格局不够”。最近出现一件怪现象：一些社交网络大V，居然在给许家印和恒大的系统性财务造假与失职进行洗白。中国证监会已明确认定，恒大地产在2019年和2020年期间通过提前确认收入，虚增收入达5641亿元，并据此虚增利润并违法发行债券。许家印并非单纯的“政策受害者”。在恒大高度负债、造假维持的期间，许家印等人通过高额分红套现数千亿元，并利用“技术性离婚”、海外信托等方式转移和隔离资产。他将巨大风险甩给社会，自己却享有了天价分红。

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Good question, it's mainly third party commentary + actions around $SIVE.

Ayar probably speaks volumes to me most removing $LITE / $MTSI from their supply chain section of their site. Then just featuring Sivers by itself for the laser suppliers.

VP at Ayar also said Sivers was ... "essential to powering our optical I/O solution", which is pretty high signal commentary.

Then you have $JBL that built a 1.6T LRO after selecting Sivers, which is very rare. And bragged about their technological moat at one of the fireside chats.

Then $GFS choosing Sivers as the reference laser too and featuring them in their presentations...

Feels like all your leading players are moving forward with Sivers for some reason? And I'd assume these leading companies did their DD

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Lot of misinterpretations flying left and right around the $600m ATM. I'm still bullish on $AAOI and I have large positions (which is why I care more).

What I've been consistent with is not being a fan of overusing ATMs/dilution for financing. I've said this before with $IREN + $POET.

And I'll be consistent with my own positions like AOI.

However, the reason I'm still overweight on AOI vs. the rest (looking at you Poet):

Is that AOI is actually capacity constrained with high demand visibility.

In terms of timing:

- AOI should have waited until completion of 1.6T qualifications (expected in the next few weeks)

- Could have used other structures like convertible notes above market prices.

But they did it on the drop from $220 -> $130, and it's likely there will be short term structural overhang whenever they want to tap into it.

I don't have to support every single business decision to remain long.

[Annie 所长 @web3annie]

渣打加密主管：

1. 机构抢筹
很快会出现单日暴买超 10 亿的史诗级流入，本周美股 ETF 已经狂吸 15 亿美元，但真正的买盘其实还没完全发力。

2. 年底目标：稳稳冲破 10 万美元大关
美财政部信号明确，流动性支持直接翻倍，这是宏观局势扭转的最高指示。就像上次从 2.5 万涨上来一样，今年年底前 $BTC 必定站上 10 万大关。

3. 宏观趋势
熊市周期彻底结束，中长期价格还会高到离谱。比特币本质就是给投资者避开中心化机构割韭菜的避风港。只要央行和财政部搞小动作，加密货币的冰封期就彻底结束了，中长期目标价只会远超预期。

[lidang 立党 （劝人卖房/学CS/买SP500/纳100/OpenAI/Anthrop第一人） @lidangzzz]

我为什么坚持骂了宇树科技和具身智能整整两年？

https://t.co/ro5SibvR57

[crypto @cryptoytc]

@ayuanuu @AllisonFor95588 童颜巨乳

[crypto @cryptoytc]

@7TTks0422 @GetXBot

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Since people are having fun speculating on $SKHY CPO roadmap supply chains.

I'm gonna do my own guess and say SK Hynix is evaluating Celestial/Ayar. Then doing heavy evaluation into microLEDs past first-gen deployments.

Both have been kinda working on it for awhile.

- Ayar shown up in SK hynix's own website in the context of optical <-> memory links.
- Marvell is actively working with SK Hynix in custom memory solutions (and guess who owns Celestial now).

Celestial/Ayar are both also cited in SK Hynix's linked Nature Paper, which helps a bit with technical relevance:

(121): Stojanovic, V. A UCIe optical I/O retimer chiplet for AI scale-up. In 2025 IEEE Hot Chips 37 Symposium (HCS) 1–22 (IEEE, 2025)

- This is Ayar reference (Ayar’s teraphy optical I/O chiplet), Stojanovic is Ayar Lab's co-founder btw.

(123): Winterbottom, P. Photonic interconnect for accelerated computing celestial AI photonic fabric module (cough cough Celestial)

There's more breadcrumbs out there, but wanted to keep this relatively short-form.

For more upstream beneficaries:

-> I still think $SIVE is the cleanest read through since they're likely supplying to both Celestial/Ayar.

The interposer/packaging IP layer... People were speculating $POET, but Marvell probably vertically integrated players them out this year after the announcement.

Given they've had their own SiPH interposer tech/integration IP before Celestials acquisition (eg. presented a silicon-photonics interposer back in 2023)

-> AMS Osram (which I don't own), seems like they're co-developing in this area given they randomly went out of their way this year to say HBM <-> optics was a TAM increase for them.

TLDR: I see Ayar/Celestial as candidates for SK Hynix's CPO roadmap, then microLEDs being commercialized past gen-1 maybe 2029. (this is all speculation)

Just to throw a bone to quantum dot bros, this got cited like 5 times.

[Sancet @Million_Sancet]

Serenity (who mapped out the entire supply chain for $SIVE) speculates on potential supply chain partners in $SKHY CPO roadmap

Focused on optical interconnects for memory and processors, pointing to Celestial / Ayar Labs as top candidates

In the upstream segment, $SIVE stands out as the cleanest play, being a manufacturer of InP DFB lasers and laser arrays that likely supplies both companies as an external light source for their optical engines and optical I/O chiplets

Yet another speculation to add to the $SIVE bucket

With so many coincidences pointing toward $SIVE

Not saying all of them will, but many will end up being confirmed