crypto

[麦克 @mk66623]

一有交易所倒闭，大家都把钱提到币安。

币安除了是龙头，还有一个无解的优势。

币安是双话事人。强如欧易，徐明星也进去过，结果群龙无首，U 价打五折，平台币暴跌。CZ 虽然也进去过，但因为币安是双话事人，何一能迅速接过龙头棍，稳定军心。

币安还有一个近乎无解的地方。很多人都说一山不容二虎，但在币安，这种问题反而不容易出现。CZ 和何一不��是事业伙伴，还有共同的孩子，这段关系因为多了一层家庭纽带，比纯粹的利益联盟更加牢固。

还有一点，就是他俩凡事都亲力亲为。多少人相信“专业的事交给专业的人干”，结果却赔得倾家荡产。

邹市明相信北大金融专业毕业的冉莹颖，让她打理 2 亿家产，结果不但赔光了，现在还要直播带货。想躺平，晚年还得爬起来重新支棱。

[Don Ricardo Salinas Pliego @RicardoBSalinas]

Thank you, Michael @saylor.

A lot of thought and effort went into making this list that you generously share with us.

The world would be a much better place if leaders took the time to be prepared by studying these books.

[退役赌徒_Ray @raysp500]

马斯克真的是目前最虚伪的人了。

马斯克前两天转发黄仁勋的公开信说"全力支持"。

我去看了一下签名名单。

英伟达签了，微软签了，Meta签了，IBM签了，Palantir签了，Y Combinator签了。25家公司白纸黑字。

SpaceX不在上面，马斯克旗下的xAI也不在上面。

"全力支持"但一个字都没签，嘴巴说I do，笔放在桌上没碰。

这种操作只有马斯克干得出来。

想一下他的处境就明白了。他自己做xAI搞的Grok是开源路线，站出来支持开源对他的叙事有利。但SpaceX刚从$225跌到$117蒸发了一万亿，8月6号还有9亿股解禁，这个时间点让SpaceX去签一封可能引发政策争议的公开信？风险太大。

所以他选了一个最马斯克的方式，个人嘴上全力支持收割一波流量和好感，公司层面不留任何把柄，进退自如。

你说他虚伪吗？也不完全是，他确实支持开源，Grok的代码确实开源了。

但"支持"和"签字"之间的差距，就是一个万亿市值公司CEO和一个推特网红之间的距离。

签了字的25家公司里，每一家都在拿真金白银赌开源这个方向，没签字但嘴上支持的只有一个人。

[mark @cherryPayment]

理论上你可以这样说：因为IQE 数字好 → 他们 wafer 出货增�� → 客户（SIVE）采购增加 → SIVE 应该也有好数字

但这样有几个漏洞：

第一 ： 时间的滞后性

IQE wafer 出货 → SIVE 收到 wafer （需要4-8周）→ SIVE 制造（又需要 4-8 周）→ SIVE 出货给客户

总延迟差不多2-3 个月

所以 IQE Q2 好数字 ≠ SIVE Q2 好数字

而是 IQE Q2 可能暗示 SIVE Q3/Q4 会好

但是你要去关注的还有 soitec的财报：

真实的供应链：

Wafer 层：
├─ IQE (InP)
└─ Soitec (SOI)

激光/光学芯片层：
├─ AAOI (制造激光)
├─ LITE (制造激光)
├─ COHR (制造激光)
└─ SIVE (制造激光)

集成/系统层：
├─ Ayar Labs (CPO)
├─ POET (CPO)
└─ Jabil (pluggable)

超大规模客户：
└─ Amazon/Microsoft/Meta/NVIDIA

IQE 和 Soitec 都是"第一层"（上游材料）
两者都在从同一个需求浪潮中受益

那soi的表现如何呢？

Soitec FY2026 总收入 €592M 下降 30% YoY，但是Photonics-SOI 收入超过 $100M，增长超过 30%

Soitec Q1 FY2027：总收入 €113M 增长 23% YoY，Edge & Cloud AI 收入增长 47%，Photonic SOI 翻倍 YoY

FY2027 Photonic SOI 预期超过翻倍 FY2026 收入，暗示全年收入超过 $200M

要注意整个流程不是一家公司说了算，这是一个整体的流动

[Jukan @jukan05]

There’s an interesting detail in Intel’s 10-Q.

Server CPU ASPs Up 48% 👀

$INTC

[The Trend Sage @JonkooTrades]

Rosenblatt built a proprietary supply & demand model for the entire InP laser industry.

Buried in the table is the single most bullish $AAOI datapoint I’ve seen.

Every EML and CW laser for AI optics is made from indium phosphide, a rare compound so hard to grow that ONE 6-inch InP wafer costs thousands of dollars.

Only six names matter: $LITE, $COHR, $AVGO, Mitsubishi, Sumitomo, and $AAOI.

Their model’s findings:
▸ InP datacom supply exited 2025 running ~50% BEHIND demand
▸ The industry plans to scale capacity ~12x by 2030
▸ And even AFTER that 12x increase, demand is STILL ~50% ahead of supply exiting 2030
▸ Their words: an industry set to “grow in a non-cyclical manner well past 2030”

Read that again. A 12x supply expansion doesn’t close the gap. That’s how steep the demand curve is.

The kicker is that $NVDA asked the supply chain for a ~20x increase. The vendors agreed to ~12x.

The shortage is being locked in BY DESIGN, because nobody wants excess capacity.

Undersupply plus discipline equals pricing power for everyone who can actually make these lasers.

Now the $AAOI row of their capacity table (laser revenues):
▸ 2025 → $60M
▸ 2026 → $150M
▸ 2027 → $350M
▸ 2028 → $700M
▸ 2029 → $1.2B
▸ 2030 → $2.1B!!!
That’s ~35x growth, the steepest trajectory of ANY supplier in the model.

And separately, Rosenblatt sees AAOI roughly doubling its transceiver market share from under 5% to nearly 10%, while entering the ultra-high-power CW laser market for CPO.

This report is dated May 28, when $AAOI traded at ~$180. The model hasn’t changed. The stock is ~$100.

Execution decides everything. But when the axe on the sector maps a six-company oligopoly, a decade-long structural shortage, and puts your name on the steepest growth curve in the model… you pay attention.

Credits to @DjRusya for the image

[Askara @softmaxedx]

TL;DR:
$SIVE needs to LARP as $LITE.
Same layer. Similar arc.
AI go brrr.
Lasers go pew pew.

My take: use Sol 5.6 Max, do the deep research yourself, and come to your own conclusion. Otherwise you'll never sleep easy.

[mark @cherryPayment]

所以整个其整个路径就是：

IQE 制造 InP Wafer (原料)
↓
SIVE 将 Wafer 加工成 CPO 芯片（制造）
↓
AAOI 将芯片封装成激光模块（集成）
↓
Ayar Labs / Broadcom 做整合光学收发（系统）
↓
NVIDIA 集成到 AI GPU（应用）

而根据Rosenblatt 的核心发现，我们可以知道：

├─ Wafer 缺货到 2030（支持 IQE 和 SIVE 的高定价）

├─ 已制造芯片缺货到 2030（支持 SIVE 的高出货量）

└─ 成品激光器缺货到 2030（支持 AAOI 的 35x 增长）

这也就说明了SIVE 或 IQE 在产能扩张上出现问题，那么整条链条都会断档。

所以目前的问题又转移到了：

IQE 承诺的产能增长能达成吗？（他们说 2x 到 2030）

SIVE 的 GlobalFoundries SCALE 和 Jabil 合作有进展吗？

如果 Wafer 成为新瓶颈，AAOI 的 35x 增长还能进行吗？

第二点和第三点我们不知道，但 $iqe呢？

IQE 预期 InP 解决方案在 2026 年及以后会是实质性增长驱动，支持数据中心和 AI 基础设施的光学光子产品

IQE 在 2025 年下半年经历了比预期更高的光子需求，反映了 AI 和数据中心市场的持续增长

所以如果我们用 IQE 和 Rosenblatt 做一个差异对比，我们能得到：

Rosenblatt 模型（采访 6 家供应商）：
├─ IQE 将把产能扩至 2 倍（估计）
└─ 整个 InP 产业承诺 12 倍扩产

IQE 自己的财报：
├─ "强劲需求，预期增长"
├─ "订购新设备（系统产能 4 倍）"
├─ "正在考虑 6 寸转向"
└─ 零具体承诺 （完成不了）

这意味着什么呢？

我们能发现 IQE 在说"我们有需求"，但他们不愿意承诺"我们会扩到多少"，这不就正好印证了 Rosenblatt 的逻辑：

供应商宁愿卖缺货产品，也不想过度扩产然后陷入产能过剩

那么对于 $sive 具体会怎么表现呢？

SIVE 依赖的 IQE Wafer ���货链条：

Rosenblatt 预期：IQE 会扩到 2 倍产能
Rosenblatt 供给侧模型：整体行业 12 倍扩产

但 IQE 财报显示：
├─ 新设备订单有限（不足以支持 2 倍扩产）
├─ 6" 转向还在计划阶段
└─ 没有给出明确承诺

那风险就很明显了： SIVE 的成长假设依赖"IQE wafer 供应充足"，但如果 IQE 产能达不到预期 → SIVE 的制造也会受限

换句话说： SIVE 可能从"IQE 缺货受益"
转变为"IQE 成为 SIVE 自己的瓶颈"。

[crypto @cryptoytc]

@ayuanuu 源儿你真的笑死我了🤣啊

[The Wave Analyst @the_waveanalyst]

$SIVE is doing exactly what the structure mapped.

Wave (2) ABC correction — nearly complete.

Entry Zone: SEK 25.80 (0.786 retracement). Price is knocking on the door right now.

This is the reload before Wave 3 launches.

Targets:
1.618 → SEK 203
2.0 → SEK 244

From SEK 25 to SEK 244. That's the mmWave semiconductor thesis playing out on a chart.

5G. Satellite. Defense radar. The demand doesn't disappear - it accelerates.

Are you watching the entry zone in $SIVE?

[Sancet @Million_Sancet]

I agree with this information

Setting aside that there is direct confirmation that Ayar Labs and $SIVE are partners

It is good to technically emphasize that this is the case for the most skeptical:

The 8λ O-band CW DFB laser chipset from $SIVE

An 8-channel side-emitting DFB laser array, CW-WDM MSA compliant, custom designed and supplied in high volume as a die for another company to integrate into its own module

The CTO of Ayar Labs cited this about SuperNova:

“Ayar Labs uses the DFB cell from $SIVE and has adapted it to create a module packaged laser array, with the lasers multiplexed and split into wavelengths”

An 8 or 16-port module, 16 wavelengths per port

Same wavelength architecture, same standard

$SIVE is a founding member of CW-WDM MSA, same business model

$SIVE sends the raw laser die, Ayar Labs packages it into its own finished light source

[revoAIution @revoAIution]

Just another piece of evidence showing the Ayar Labs and $SIVE connection is real. $SIVE's own product spec sheet against what Ayar Labs' CTO actually described, and the match is precise.

$SIVE's 8λ O-band CW DFB Laser Chipset. An 8 channel, edge-emitting DFB laser array, CW-WDM MSA compliant, custom designed and supplied in high volume as die for another company to integrate into their own module.

Ayar Labs' CTO's own words on SuperNova. "Ayar Labs uses Sivers' DFB cell and has adapted it to create a laser array packaged in a module, with the lasers multiplexed and split into wavelengths." An 8 or 16 port module, 16 wavelengths per port.

Same wavelength architecture. Same standard, $SIVE is a founding member of CW-WDM MSA. Same business model, $SIVE ships the raw laser die, Ayar Labs packages it into their own finished light source.

[revoAIution @revoAIution]

Looking at product ramps... On the Q1 2026 report $SIVE mentioned that their teir-1 telco vendor is in advanced integration and trials with a product they want to release end of 2026. I think its Nokia, many think its Nokia, and it's probably Nokia. $SIVE confirmed a $5.4 million chip development program for a next generation mmWave beamforming transceiver back in January 2025, product release targeted end of 2026, real revenue contribution expected 2027.

If it stays on track, expect some kind of announcement once it actually converts, $SIVE has put out a press release for basically every other real milestone this year, though they've historically kept these customers unnamed even then.

On timing for the financials, given the end of 2026 release date, the realistic window to actually see revenue show up is the Q4 2026 report on February 25, 2027, or more likely Q1 2027 once the ramp gets going.

[Pepe Invests @pepemoonboy]

I’m convinced that if you can withstand this market environment, you are invincible…

You will absolutely be successful in your life if you are able to push through this insanity and come out unscathed.

[revoAIution @revoAIution]

Dug into every possible optical linkage for $SIVE and MI500 after AMD's own executive confirmed optics will be used. MI500 launches 2027, and AMD confirmed it uses both copper and optical connectivity.

Here's is what I found from most to least likely.

Most likely = $GFS. TechPowerUp reported back in April that AMD is returning to $GFS specifically for CPO manufacturing on MI500 by name. $GFS's own SCALE deck lists AMD as an OCI MSA founding member alongside $AVGO, $NVDA, Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI. The official June 2 $SIVE and $GFS press release confirms $SIVE laser arrays are integrated into reference designs on $GFS's silicon photonics platform, available in the SCALE platform for CPO and linear pluggable optics. No other laser company is named anywhere in that official announcement.

Second = Ayar Labs. AMD directly invested in Ayar Labs' Series E funding round. Ayar Labs joined Nvidia's NVLink Fusion ecosystem in June and already demonstrated a full CPO scale-up rack with Wiwynn at OFC in March. $SIVE has been Ayar Labs' confirmed laser supplier since 2022. No confirmation this specific relationship is tied to MI500 by name yet though.

Least likely, Lightmatter. Also joined NVLink Fusion, making them a direct competitor to Ayar Labs in that same ecosystem slot. One unverified source claims AMD backing here too. This wouldn't touch $SIVE at all, so would be the worst outcome. Lightmatter builds its own proprietary laser in-house.

Other real players in this space with no confirmed AMD connection. Celestial AI, now owned by Marvell. Intel Photonics. Nubis, Xscape Photonics, Ranovus, Scintil. $LITE and $COHR, both with confirmed $2 billion investments from Nvidia specifically, not AMD.

Recap.

Most likely, $GFS, $SIVE is the confirmed reference laser.

Second, Ayar Labs, $SIVE is the only laser supplier.

Least likely, Lightmatter, no $SIVE laser involved, bad outcome for the thesis if this is the one that wins.

[Sancet @Million_Sancet]

This isn't particularly bullish for $AAOI but it is extremely bullish for $SIVE ,let me explain

Basically, contrary to what the Rosenblatt note from June 30th stated
$AAOI seems to have a slight/moderate delay regarding CPO

This is understandable, but the reality is that out of the photonics plays, $AAOI is the one that benefits the least from CPO in the short/medium term

It isn't overly concerning

The interesting part is that this leaves three specialized players for $AMD and other companies in the market

$LITE ($57B MC) $COHR (54B MC) and $SIVE ($1.1B)

If you see this and realize that only these three companies are going to handle the CPO demand on a broad scale

And you don't see $SIVE having a massive asymmetry, then you're missing something

It's simply ridiculous that a company over 50 times smaller is on the same battlefield as $LITE and $COHR

[Daniel Romero @HyperTechInvest]

MI450 is a game changer

At the same rack power, MI450 delivers 10–15% more performance than $NVDA Vera Rubin NVL72

$AMD also expects Helios racks to deliver up to 30% more tokens per dollar than Vera Rubin

[Sancet @Million_Sancet]

Looks like $AMD is beating $NVDA at this shit

But guess who doesn't care who does it better?

Exactly, $SIVE

If $NVDA wins through Ayar Labs, $SIVE is integrated into their ecosystem

If $AMD wins through $GFS , $SIVE is integrated into their ecosystem

It's a win-win no matter how you look at it

What great connections this company has, what a bright future awaits us

[crypto @cryptoytc]

@ayuanuu 能举腿吗？

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Not exactly for $AAOI (they're working on CPO too, just a little further behind in commercialization).

There's a podcast that featured the $SIVE CEO recently called: "Market Insights: Photonics & AI".

Most interesting take was:

"Pluggables will be around for the next 10 years".

There's a lot of CPO + RNG/MRC optimization TAM cannablization arguments for pluggables recently, but looks like it's here to stay.

And that there's going to be multiple architecture paths going forward (CEO also NPO alongside CPO as an major opportunity in the next 5 years).

As for challenges: Vickram stated manufacturing capacity + availability of raw material is the main bottleneck. Likely referencing the existing bottlenecks with upstream CW laser ramp.

From the podcast, seems like a large focus was on pluggable markets due to larger near-term TAM (which is understandable with $JBL + other players), with CPO being the north star.

So it might be interesting if $SIVE M&A ambitions were to acquire more pluggable optical transceiver IP, like what $LITE did with Cloud Light.

But TLDR:

Lot of different paths moving forward, pluggable here to stay, CPO seems like North Star for where industry is heading.

Feels like there's room for every qualified laser supplier given the industry demand is growing faster than what they can all collectively make.