Askara

Ex-founder. Learning in public about AI, markets, and human behavior: the tech, money, and psychology shaping what comes next.

[Askara @softmaxedx]

Turns out the beauty “bottleneck” I mentioned has more beauty inside than meets the eye.

Aerospace. Defense. Automotive. Electronics. Medical.

Recent signals:
1. ~€6M strategic aerospace/defense order
2. Compose MFG licensing + composite expansion
3. R-IDS / RTF platforms targeting high-performance thermoplastic composites

It is starting to look like an under the radar picks and shovels play on next gen lightweight manufacturing.

Does Roctool $ALROC remain a niche luxury/beauty tech provider, or does it scale into something bigger?

Let's find out 👀

[Askara @softmaxedx]

Imagine putting €10,000 into this small French company RocTool $ALROC just 6 months ago…
You’d now have €106,700 💰
+967% in half a year.

This company's tech helps make the premium bottles for Clinique / Estée Lauder better.

In this bull market, opportunities keep coming.

[Askara @softmaxedx]

@QuintenFrancois ask the fed for some of that green paper

[Askara @softmaxedx]

@dougboneparth There are some planets in the solar system where it doesn't rain cuz there is no atmosphere.

[Askara @softmaxedx]

One of the many reasons I respect Serenity's work:

The answer isn't always "buy now."

Sometimes it's:

"This matters, but it may take months before it shows up in company-specific results."

That's a much more nuanced way of thinking about markets.

Not every positive development needs to produce a green candle tomorrow.

Patience is a virtue.

TikTok attention spans are great for scrolling TikTok, not for understanding multi year investment theses 🤣

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

@spring_grandpa It's a structural long term tailwind for EU photonic players since its a regulatory framework.

Now that photonics is a new critical part of gov policy.

Not a massive one-day spike, would need to wait maybe a few months for individual companies to get namedropped for that.

[Askara @softmaxedx]

So I'll end where I started.

People, companies, markets, and incentives are usually more nuanced than they first appear.

When we don't understand something, our first instinct is often to classify it quickly: good, bad, real, fake, fraud, opportunity.

But sometimes it's worth pausing and asking:

Why does this look the way it does?
What am I missing?
What evidence would change my mind?

An open mind doesn't mean abandoning skepticism.

It means being willing to investigate before reaching a conclusion.

[Askara @softmaxedx]

This is why causal reasoning in markets and social media is hard.

Pump and dumps are real.
But one real fraud case does not make every visible stock thesis fraud.

Bad causal chain:
large account posts → stock goes up → a fraud case exists somewhere else → "same thing"

That is not evidence. That is pattern matching.
Let's look at some real evidence

Category 1: suspicion was correct.

Atlas Trading - Regulators alleged influencers promoted stocks online while secretly selling into the demand they helped create.

So yes, some online stock promotion is manipulation.
The correct response is not blind trust. It is evidence based skepticism.

Category 2: public bull thesis looked insane before working.

$TSLA: ARK's aggressive $TSLA thesis was public years before the massive move. The stock later suffered brutal drawdowns and was mocked heavily.
But "loud bull case + crazy valuation" did not automatically mean fake. Eventually, execution changed the conversation.

Category 3: public thesis did not instantly pump the stock.

$GME: Michael Burry/Scion publicly pushed a $GME buyback thesis in August 2019. It did not instantly become the 2021 mania. The later move was huge, but the original public thesis was not simply "post → instant pump."

Markets are messier than that.

Category 4: famous public bull thesis failed.

$VRX: Bill Ackman publicly backed $VRX/$BHC. It still collapsed, and Pershing eventually exited after a massive loss.

So famous investor + public thesis also does not guarantee success.

That is the point.

When someone says a stock has "pump and dump vibes" ask two things:

Where is the manipulation evidence?
And what do the fundamentals say?
If both are missing, it is causal insinuation.

The beautiful thing is that today, gathering evidence has never been easier.

Use LLMs.
Read filings.
Ask questions.
Research the company, the sector, the competitors, the customers, the macro environment, and the technology.
Challenge your own thesis.

Look for evidence that supports it.
Look for evidence that contradicts it.

Then make your decision.
Be inspired by smart people if you want.
But in the end, it is your money, your conviction, and your responsibility.
And if the thesis succeeds, it is also your dream that gets fulfilled.

[Nanalyze @nanalyzetweets]

@softmaxedx @aleabitoreddit It's not crazy hard to have a large account and pump stocks like $SIVE. It's crazy hard paying the fines when you get caught. Total Zack Morris vibes here. Buyer beware.
https://t.co/TFUqBwZ2rg

[Askara @softmaxedx]

I think that's a fair concern.

However, repetition alone doesn't tell us whether someone is researching a company or promoting it irresponsibly.

Some people repeatedly discuss a stock because they're trying to pump it.

Others do it because they've built a concentrated thesis and are continually updating it as new information arrives.

There's also the X algorithm. If your content fits a small set of themes and gets engagement, the platform rewards repetition.

So the distinction comes back to evidence.

Are they hiding compensation?

Are they making false claims?

Are they discouraging critical discussion?

Or are they presenting information, sharing their reasoning, and allowing people to disagree?

I personally prefer to judge the quality of the argument rather than the anonymity of the person making it.

Anonymity can hide bad incentives, yes.

But it can also protect privacy, reduce personal risk etc.

[Askara @softmaxedx]

I understand where you're coming from.
I grew up on the opposite end of that equation. There were periods where I was surviving on extremely little money and had almost no capital to deploy.

So I absolutely agree that capital matters. But I also think that knowledge compounds. Networks compound. Skills compound.
Opportunities compound.
And eventually those things become capital too.
Most dreams won't happen overnight.

But dismissing them entirely seems just as dangerous as blindly chasing them

[Askara @softmaxedx]

EU Chips Act 1 was about supply security.

Chips Act 2.0 looks more like market-building: demand accelerators, procurement, faster permits, strategic projects, AI/cloud/data-centre pull-through, and deeper support for photonics, advanced packaging, MEMS, specialty manufacturing and materials.

That maps well to parts of my EU semi basket:

$XFAB → specialty foundry / industrial chips / advanced packaging / SiPh-adjacent capacity
$SIVE → optical interconnects, lasers, AI data-centre photonics
$SILEX → MEMS foundry / sensors / specialty manufacturing
$RIB → MBE equipment for compound semis / photonics materials
$SMOL → more speculative, via advanced packaging / ultra-thin capacitor IP

None of this guarantees company-level success.

But the policy backdrop is becoming more favourable, especially for regional semiconductor ecosystems as geopolitics pushes supply-chain resilience higher on the agenda.

Having said that each company still has to execute: convert strategic relevance into customers, orders, margins, capacity, partnerships and cash flow.

Let's see how the future pans out but for now it seems bullish.

[Askara @softmaxedx]

@Bejewele_din_Fr GGs!! You finally got it right!! Congratulations!!

[Askara @softmaxedx]

@theragingbullX $SIVE 🚀🚀

[Askara @softmaxedx]

Hahahaha 🤣🤣

But jokes aside I think humans will probably do what humans have always done.

Fire, the wheel, farming, the printing press, calculators, assembly language, C, C++ (XD), Python, neural networks, LLMs.

Every major tool first threatens the existing order. Then people reorganize around it, build new skills, create new bottlenecks, and pivot.

AI may change everything but humans will still find a way.

Like they say in league, gg go next!

[Askara @softmaxedx]

@aleabitoreddit I sold $MRVL at $90 to increase my $SIVE positions at $25.
Missed out on 3x to get 4x. Liquidity problems.

[Askara @softmaxedx]

@deepaksirw Hello! Nice to make your acquaintance, and thank you for the kind words. I truly appreciate them.

I'd love to chat. Perhaps one day we can develop a few theses of our own by studying the humans behind the companies as much as the companies themselves🤝

[Askara @softmaxedx]

Thank you to everyone who followed me today.

I feel incredibly grateful and will do my best to earn each and every follow I received.

I'll keep sharing my research, rabbit holes, thoughts, mistakes, lessons, and whatever knowledge I can contribute along the way.

Having said that, the unexpected part of today was getting to see how much appreciation and love people have for Serenity.

The positivity was overwhelming.

It made me even more bullish on Serenity, $SIVE, and most bullish on humanity.

But my favorite part was this tweet.

We are all dreamers.

We all have places we want to go, things we want to build, people we want to help, and lives we hope to create.

There is something genuinely beautiful about seeing someone else's dream come true.

So let's keep dreaming.

And let's keep helping each other get there. ❤️

[BK201 @BK201201]

@aleabitoreddit @softmaxedx We really need to say a lot of thank you!

Far more than the mean comments!

I always dream about going to japan have a holiday with my family, it is really close now!

[Askara @softmaxedx]

@Path21Mil I just noticed, even $XFAB rebounded. What a day

[Askara @softmaxedx]

@NinjaT8964 @aleabitoreddit Hahaha thank you so much!!
I don't think I'm worthy of a "-sama" yet 😅
But I truly appreciate the kindness.
Let's all keep learning and dreaming and growing together 🙌🏼

[Askara @softmaxedx]

While we celebrate $SIVE's move today, I want to say something about @aleabitoreddit. Our very own Serenity sama.

Looking at this chart today, everything feels obvious.

The contracts.
The partnerships.
The management.
The photonics story.
The AI narrative.
All the pieces seem to fit perfectly.
But that's hindsight.
The difficult part is seeing those pieces when the share price is 3 SEK, not 100 SEK.

Researching a company is one thing.
Believing your own research is another.
Putting your own money behind it is another.

And then publicly sharing that conviction with thousands of people — for free — while being told you're wrong, delusional, pumping, or wasting your time?
That's a completely different level.

I don't think people fully appreciate/realize how much conviction, persistence, and emotional resilience that requires. Personally I can't comprehend. I am out of words to describe how crazy hard this is.

So all I really want to say is thank you.

Thank you for the research.
Thank you for the transparency.
Thank you for continuing to share your work despite the criticism.

I generally dislike fan following culture.
But in this case I have to make an exemption. I am in awe of the person. I am a fan.

[Askara @softmaxedx]

@hgng64167455 That's fair.
I personally prefer sharing both the opportunities and the risks.
I'd rather give people information than tell them what to think.

[Askara @softmaxedx]

$SIVE 🤝 $GFS
Can you guess the connection anon?

[Askara @softmaxedx]

When I look at a “speculative” semiconductor small cap, I ask one simple question:

Do the people around the table have the experience and credibility to execute?

Last time for $SIVE, I looked at the CEO.

This time, I am looking at Bami Bastani, Chairman of the Board.

PhD in Microelectronics.
Executive Chairman of Sivers Semiconductors Inc.
Board member at $IQE.
Former SVP/GM of Mobile and Wireless Infrastructure at $GFS.
Former President/CEO/board member at Meru Networks, Trident Microsystems, and ANADIGICS.
Former board roles across Aquantia, GSA, Nitronex, SkyCross, and others.

For $SIVE, this matters.
The company is trying to scale across mmWave, SATCOM, photonics, external light sources, and AI datacenter optical infrastructure.
You do not execute that with a nice investor deck alone.

You need people who understand customers, foundries, qualification cycles, strategic partnerships, capital markets, industry networks, and the painful gap between prototype and production.
Bastani is one of the stronger credibility signals here.

He can potentially help with strategic direction, US semiconductor ecosystem access, customer/partner conversations, M&A/strategic options, and credibility with RF/photonics/compound-semiconductor investors.

Does this guarantee success?

No.

A strong chairman cannot magically solve gross margins, cash burn, reporting quality, or production ramp.

But it gives me another reason to keep digging.

Underneath the risk, $SIVE does not look like vaporware to me.

It looks like a technically credible semiconductor scale up with people around it who have actually seen what real semiconductor execution looks like.

Now the question is whether they can convert that credibility into numbers.

What do you think? Can Bastani's guidance help $SIVE enter its next era?

[Askara @softmaxedx]

@enochtalent @aleabitoreddit I'll have to deep dive to fully understand the tech. But it looks interesting, thanks for sharing.

[Askara @softmaxedx]

@Mouthinsugar @aleabitoreddit

[Askara @softmaxedx]

@michaelcra39982 @aleabitoreddit thank you 🙏
today I learnt the phrase "good egg" I will use it now in my conversations, thanks for sharing 🤣🤣