The wait is over!
Introducing... 🥁
Bitcoin Quantile Model v2.
You’re going to want to bookmark this post—and follow for regular model updates.
After months of research and development, I’m very proud of this model—my flagship quantile framework.
I’m confident it’s one of the best—if not the best—long-term Bitcoin investment frameworks available.
As a full-time, unpaid Bitcoin researcher, I’m often asked how people can best support my free content.
Simply bookmark, repost, and comment on my posts :)
Thanks for all your continued support!
— PlanC
Key Features & Improvements:
1. Quantile lines never cross—mathematically impossible.
2. Cycle-length agnostic.
3. 133,000+ data points and 1,500 lines of code.
4. Fits and stores 999 quantile levels (τ = 0.001–0.999 in 0.001 steps) and identifies which level the last price is closest to.
5. Fits the two leading decay functions (stretched exponential decay & exponential decay) and selects the better fit via quantile-appropriate AIC.
Uses Akaike weights to identify the best-supported model.
Akaike weights (AIC-based):
Stretched exponential decay: 96.4%
Exponential decay: 3.6%
6. Piecewise Quantile Regression — Linear + Stretched Exponential Decay (Nonlinear).
A couple reflections on the quantum computing breakthrough we just announced...
Most of us grew up learning there are three main types of matter that matter: solid, liquid, and gas. Today, that changed.
After a nearly 20 year pursuit, we’ve created an entirely new state of matter, unlocked by a new class of materials, topoconductors, that enable a fundamental leap in computing.
It powers Majorana 1, the first quantum processing unit built on a topological core.
We believe this breakthrough will allow us to create a truly meaningful quantum computer not in decades, as some have predicted, but in years.
The qubits created with topoconductors are faster, more reliable, and smaller.
They are 1/100th of a millimeter, meaning we now have a clear path to a million-qubit processor.
Imagine a chip that can fit in the palm of your hand yet is capable of solving problems that even all the computers on Earth today combined could not!
Sometimes researchers have to work on things for decades to make progress possible.
It takes patience and persistence to have big impact in the world.
And I am glad we get the opportunity to do just that at Microsoft.
This is our focus: When productivity rises, economies grow faster, benefiting every sector and every corner of the globe.
It’s not about hyping tech; it’s about building technology that truly serves the world.