Play the long game based on data.
Closing in on 70,000 views and the 5th most-watched keynote from BTC Prague 2026. Worth a watch if you haven’t seen it yet.
@MrMPodcast@Giovann35084111 JR Willett discovered the Bitcoin Power Law in 2013.
Trololo was second.
I would then say Gio, @1basemoney , @sminston_with , @TheRealPlanC have done the most to advance the research. But none of them discovered it… Dacoinminster (JR Willett) did… full stop!
Remember to keep Bitcoin’s long-term path in mind.
This model captures the distribution of paths, bootstrapped and tracking the measurable trajectory defined by Bitcoin’s power law parameters, notably the exponent near 6.
Empiricism meets probability. 2034 median: $1.27M
Damage control. Most of Gio's arguments contain logical fallacies. Within the first few minutes, he relies on a non sequitur (specifically an appeal to irrelevance or obscurity). He argues that because it took 13 years for someone to find the post, it must not be important. Most people don't know how to spot these logical fallacies, which makes his narrative spinning work.
A 2013 forum post is circulating online as supposed proof that someone else discovered the Bitcoin Power Law first.
I sat down with @Giovann35084111 to examine the math line by line and show why fitting an Excel trendline on a semi-log chart is not a scientific model.
Damage control. Most of Gio's arguments contain logical fallacies. Within the first few minutes, he relies on a non sequitur (specifically an appeal to irrelevance or obscurity). He argues that because it took 13 years for someone to find the post, it must not be important. Most people don't know how to spot these logical fallacies, which makes his narrative spinning work.
Play the long game based on data.
Closing in on 70,000 views and the 5th most-watched keynote from BTC Prague 2026. Worth a watch if you haven’t seen it yet.
Play the long game based on data.
Closing in on 70,000 views and the 5th most-watched keynote from BTC Prague 2026. Worth a watch if you haven’t seen it yet.
My good friend Monte Carlo and I ran Bitcoin out to 2034. 5,000 times 🎲
Not one run ended below today's $80K.
The median finish: $1.48M 🚀
- - -
Each line on the chart is one run, and the pink curve on the right shows the final distribution in 2034. Even the bottom 5% finish around $464K, almost 6x from here.
He's very optimistic, and honestly so am I 😄
My keynote is the 8th most-viewed from BTC Prague 2026!
Every keynote ahead of it has been up 11 to 18 times longer.
Watch it here:
https://t.co/2ZbqRdzTlu