Decode

Bitcoin & Crypto Market Intelligence |

[Decode @decodejar]

DN26 | Hold The Line | A year of the Decode Newsletter, Bitcoin tests support, and are stocks ready to cool off?
https://t.co/Z9xCcdjykY

[Decode @decodejar]

Bitcoin finally tapped the 70s (79k) in this slow grind lower. When I said the local high was probably in at 87.4k and we would come down to 75k no one believed me. Question now is how much lower. Will my target get tested, or is this enough? Sentiment metrics are still neutral.

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@qazzaq_eth Because all they hear is the word cycle and don't think to question which one it is.

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A distinction I think a lot of people miss is that when I say we are mid-cycle, I'm not directly referring to Bitcoin, I'm referring to the business cycle.

Bitcoin's own cycle structure can be interpreted in a number of ways, a short cycle can be a left translated 4 year cycle for example, but in terms of what is driving it, I think the heating of the business cycle is why the low was shallow and a little shorter.

Crypto more broadly is perhaps at the start of a new cycle, having been in a 5 year downtrend due to challenging macro conditions.

Where all the analysis converges and agrees is that are heading into an uptrend and I think it will be a broad crypto bull market, but whatever happens, we need to be careful of allowing terminology to determine what camp we sit in, and instead focus on real signals like the business cycle, liquidity and capital rotation.

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So it was a mid-cycle correction.

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@azurexbt Yeah absolutely, it's a big problem on CT, there is a strong tendency to take a side.

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I think people are overestimating how quickly the crypto market is going to move up.

I don't think it will be easy initially because amongst other things I look at stocks and see another leg down.

Nothing drastic, but if it's enough to put Bitcoin back into the 70s, it might take a bit of time to reverse and come back up.

My view is still that Bitcoin is most likely in wave 2, and if that holds true, sentiment can get a lot worse.

Otherwise we need to see Bitcoin hold 80k.

[Decode @decodejar]

The recent new highs on the Nasdaq, since the lows at the end of July, have looked corrective to me for a while. A three wave swing B-wave high printed on bearish divergence that will most likely give way to a larger correction and that seems even more likely today.

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@dannycheng2022 @cantonmeow @GreatMattsby @gabz_investing @chad_ventures I see the same thing across both my X and Substack communities.

Accounts tagged here are all great btw.

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These videos are great. Highly recommend you follow @arikuschnir

[Ari K @arikuschnir]

🔴MARSx

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@chartzfukup I have Q2 to Q4 2027 for a short cycle.

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I think the macro conditions that these two lines represent are quite different, but I still think Bitcoin will do something that rhymes, because of the position of the business cycle and where we are in the rotation. I think we are getting closer to a strong upside move, but these things invariably take longer than everyone thinks.

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I'm not really a fractal guy, but this Bitcoin chart aligns will with my view that we will see a shorter cycle to peak this time around. Credit to @_Checkmatey_

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@0xjackson111 @_Checkmatey_ Shorter, and especially to the first peak.

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I'm not really a fractal guy, but this Bitcoin chart aligns will with my view that we will see a shorter cycle to peak this time around. Credit to @_Checkmatey_

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I've been talking to a lot of people about crypto the last few months, and the opportunity that I think is now right on our doorstep. Most agree that it's been down bad for a long time and can see my point of view, but don't have the ability to do anything about it. Cost of living, kids and family commitments, other investments like property, or even just at a point in their life where they don't have any appetite for the risk. There's always been this disconnect between CT and the real world. People with smaller pools of capital are less likely to make life changing gains, and the risk they take on is also far greater if they commit.

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@cdchester @chrono_chartist @nihkalowz @TXMCtrades @MatthewHyland_ @CredibleCrypto Haven't seen your articles in my feed, but keep doing what you enjoy 😎

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Shout out to a few accounts I've known for a long time, and this isn't about content or success, it's about people whose interactions are always respectful, genuine and come from the right place.

@chrono_chartist
@nihkalowz
@TXMCtrades
@MatthewHyland_
@CredibleCrypto
@StockmoneyL
@i_am_jackis
@cantonmeow
@lourenco_vs
@Osemka8
@_Checkmatey_
@BobLoukas
@therationalroot
@GertvanLagen
@TradersMastery
@TheRealPlanC
@sminston_with
@OnChainCollege
@AlemzadehC
@AssetsNorris

There are many more, of course I will forget lots and cannot list them all, but these are just the first 20 that came to mind. I follow more than 500 of you.

In addition there are many many many smaller accounts that I interact with regularly in the comments, you know who you are.

I wouldn't entertain a conversation with you if I didn't think you were part of the good culture on CT 👊

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@chartzfukup @chrono_chartist @nihkalowz @TXMCtrades @MatthewHyland_ @CredibleCrypto Good to have you around man, good chats always.

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@OnChainCollege @chrono_chartist @nihkalowz @TXMCtrades @MatthewHyland_ @CredibleCrypto Hope you're well brother

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@tech3000algo @chrono_chartist @nihkalowz @TXMCtrades @MatthewHyland_ @CredibleCrypto So many great people on here, and you too of course have been around a long time 🤝

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@AssetsNorris @chrono_chartist @nihkalowz @TXMCtrades @MatthewHyland_ @CredibleCrypto Always enjoy your content and our chats.

[Decode @decodejar]

@AlemzadehC @chrono_chartist @nihkalowz @TXMCtrades @MatthewHyland_ @CredibleCrypto Love how much you're grown coosh, great stuff