allinonthechair

[allinonthechair @aiotcBitcoin]

This is a great site:

https://t.co/JtvMcFCD5o

[Frank @FrankAFetter]

bitcoin MACD is flipping positive. the market is due for a decent relief bounce here $btc

[Oz @AskCryptoWealth]

Another indication why this is so similar to 2019-20 mid cycle correction rather than a 2022 bear market.

The MFI has not reset to 20 or below which marks bear bottoms.. But here another big divergence is showing just as it did after the Covid crash..

[allinonthechair @aiotcBitcoin]

@moneyordebt

[allinonthechair @aiotcBitcoin]

@tomyoungjr Thomas Young everybody!

[David @david_eng_mba]

806 days after the halving, $BTC has never been this cheap at this point in the cycle.

At the 57% mark of every prior cycle, price sat at or above the power-law trend:

2013 cycle: +0.06σ
2017 cycle: +0.49σ
2021 cycle: -0.54σ
Now: -1.81σ

The "peak-risk window" arrived and there's no peak.

The 4-year cycle is dead, killed by ETF flows.

This is the cheapest mid-cycle entry ever recorded.

[Frank @FrankAFetter]

the downside hasn’t been as bad as in the past; i think it’s the number of perceived bottoms that has caused the apathy. fourth times a charm? $btc

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

The most bullish Bitcoin chart is the one that keeps grinding higher while everyone stares at the spot price.

The 4-year moving average of realized price is the market's smoothed cost basis.

It is the slow, load-bearing floor under the entire asset, and it is still compounding at nearly 30% a year after a full decade of adoption.

YoY CAGR of the 4Y realized price MA:

2014: $101.47 - baseline
2015: $173.33 - 70.82%
2016: $259.08 - 49.47%
2017: $576.40 - 122.48%
2018: $1,771.46 - 207.33%
2019: $2,954.45 - 66.78%
2020: $4,405.83 - 49.13%
2021: $8,876.68 - 101.48%
2022: $13,246.03 - 49.22%
2023: $17,064.55 - 28.83%
2024: $23,076.40 - 35.23%
2025: $30,521.35 - 32.26%
2026 YTD: $34,345.61 - 29.39%

Read the bottom cluster again.

Four halvings, three "generational" crashes, and roughly 9,000 obituaries later, the smoothed floor still compounds at 30% a year.

The explosive early-cycle numbers cooled off and the metric barely noticed.

Your savings account pays 4%.

The floor under Bitcoin compounds at 30%.

The volatility you keep flinching at is just the entry fee for that seat.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

I suspect that gold’s correlated behavior will be temporary as gold has fallen out of favor after it went vertical last year. The fast money used to be in Bitcoin, and then it left for gold, and now it’s chasing semiconductors. The chart below shows how gold’s real rate model fell apart in 2022 when gold became a proxy for global liquidity. With global M2 now slowing from a growth rate of 12% at the peak to 7%, gold is understandably weaker. But it’s too weak considering the modest deceleration in M2.

[David @david_eng_mba]

Bitcoin Flow Elasticity: 2.79x

Spot: $61.3K
Liquid float: 2.5M BTC
Liquid-float value: $153B

$61.3K × 2.5M BTC = $153B liquid float value

Base 1:1 float math:

$10B ÷ 2.5M BTC = $4,000/BTC

Measured elasticity:

$4,000 × 2.79 = $11,160/BTC

So:

$10B net absorption ≈ +$11.1K/BTC

That moves BTC from:

$61.3K → ~$72.4K

Why?

Price is set by marginal flow, not market cap.

Thin float turns small absorption into large repricing.

When net flows flip positive, Bitcoin moves fast.

[allinonthechair @aiotcBitcoin]

What do you think @Giovann35084111 — Fidelity posting on the Bitcoin Power Law.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

That same logic applies to Bitcoin as well. It’s getting closer to its power law support line. Again, I don’t see the catalyst yet for a reversal.

[Jurrien Timmer @TimmerFidelity]

That same logic applies to Bitcoin as well. It’s getting closer to its power law support line. Again, I don’t see the catalyst yet for a reversal.

[allinonthechair @aiotcBitcoin]

@dotkrueger @edstromandrew Sort of surprised Andy is resorting to baiting for attention. Didn’t see him as that type of person.

[Fred Krueger #BIP-110 @dotkrueger]

The key feature isn't simply that 2026 is "less bad."

It's that every time selling becomes intense, buyers step in much sooner than they did in 2022.

[allinonthechair @aiotcBitcoin]

@BitPaine @ODELLXYZ Remember when "blue check" scolded the less enlightened to "buy the real S*%#, not that fake S*&$"... did he realize that ten31 investing in his perception of a "pure Bitcoin company" with all it's counterparty risk isn't the "Real S*%#"?

[Frank @FrankAFetter]

bitcoin is down 50% from its all-time high price, yet the number of long-term holder coins is at an all-time high. this is also with half the supply sitting in loss. bullish.

[David @david_eng_mba]

52% of all Bitcoin supply is now underwater.

That means the majority of $BTC is now priced below its last on-chain transfer price.

This is capitulation.

The same loss-dominant zone appeared near major bottoms:

2015
2018
2020
2022

When the majority of supply is underwater, strong hands typically accumulate.

[Sminston With 👁 @sminston_with]

Similar results if you exclude the 2019-2020 'mid-cycle' bear:

[Sminston With 👁 @sminston_with]

These are Bitcoin's historical bear market trajectories of Long-term holder supply-in-loss, each ending with the price bottom.

The current LTH supply-in-loss share has SURPASSED the median between all past bear markets, excluding 2011, and would be the second highest overall.

[David @david_eng_mba]

$BTC rewards time in the market, not perfect timing.

From 2020–2025:

2020: Hold BTC = +303%
Miss best 10 days = +44%
Miss best 20 days = -25%

2023: Hold BTC = +155%
Miss best 10 days = +21%
Miss best 20 days = -26%

2024: Hold BTC = +121%
Miss best 10 days = -5%
Miss best 20 days = -42%

That is the core psychology of Bitcoin:

Most people do not lose because they misunderstand the long-term thesis.

They lose because they get shaken out before the few days that matter.

Even after removing the best and worst days together, the long-term structure still holds.

Volatility is the admission price.

The edge is not trading every move.

The edge is surviving long enough to capture the network’s compressed upside.

[Adam Livingston @AdamBLiv]

🔥MONSTER BITCOIN BOTTOM SIGNAL🔥

45.63% of Bitcoin's supply is in profit.

The last time we were at this level was November 13, 2022.

From that date Bitcoin went from $16,324 to:

$21,772 or 1.33x in 3 months
$26,777 or 1.64x in 6 months
$29,300 or 1.79x in 9 months
$36,748 or 2.23x in 12 months
$62,937 or 3.86x in 18 months
$90,422 or 5.54x in 24 months

If history rhymes, those same multiples correspond to:

3 mo: $78k Bitcoin
6 mo: $96k Bitcoin
9 mo: $105k Bitcoin
12 mo: $131k Bitcoin
18 mo: $226k Bitcoin
24 mo: $324k Bitcoin

Absurdly bullish.