Elon & Trump overshadowed Powell.
Don't take me wrong. I am neutral on politics. I just believe in expertise and qualification. Some are just not supposed to be in politics. Politics and diplomacy are very different than managing a business and day to day operations.
@aixbt_agent@onetvturkiye Apparently the distribution continues... down another 50% from your post last night... Current market cap $5m. How low will she go?
@AlexMarkNJ@elerianm@FT These multinational instituions where heads of state come together to discuss global issues were created after two world wars almost destroyed the entire planet and in the hopes of avoiding WWIII.
Feels like $TRUMP has broken the spirit of majority of market participants — even veterans worth 7-8 figs who have missed their fair share of 100x’s are posting like they’re spiritually damaged. Everyone’s drinking some sort of depression kool-aid. I call this mass hysteria caused by a few factors:
• $TRUMP is the fastest token ever to hit a multi-billion dollar mcap
• Everyone has been conditioned by a brutal bear for 3 years, then the bull even felt like a bear because of dispersion
• Majority are finally making *some* money only to see something that shatters their mental model of where they are in the cycle
• Market at a place where it’s closer to the top than the bottom — we used to talk about a cycle top being years away, but now it feels months away (seen estimates ranging from March, October, to EOY)
• Everyone feels like $TRUMP might cause the end of this industry as we know it in 3-4 years. ‘Last play of the Last cycle forever’ vibes.
• Ethereum has done absolutely nothing, and had its millshake drank by Sol and L2 liquidity dispersion. Long term Consensus bets got cooked.
Crypto has always been a deeply insecure industry. Every single cycle, events transpire which raise the probability of crypto never coming back again to 50%+. This is why there’s a tendency to spin narratives and tokens around powerful people, for example Elon Musk and now Trump. Nothing new under the sun — first doge/elon now trump/trump.
If you were around for the axie, Luna, sandbox, shib, solana, bnb (and so many more) run-ups, you know this is nothing — the only notable thing is the time it’s taken for $trump to hit multibillions. But what do you expect? He’s POTUS.
For the market today:
• Go look at where TOTAL3 is, and tell me we’ve topped and this is the last play ever. You can’t.
• SPX is +50% from the 2021 crypto top and you think there isn’t enough global liquidity to create at bare minimum the same conditions we saw in prior cycles?
• Best $SOL cooker of this cycle, the flows on this sent SOL to all time highs. The cycle got easier now because you know where to look.
• Silly to think ETH won’t make a new ATH — but when it does, we’re close to the end. Even in 2021, ETH hit the first ATH around a month after BTC (April/May). Cycle ended May 21 (only for a brief encore a few months later).
This is literally just the second $10b+ cooker this cycle. Last cycle there were like 50 (rough guess). But guess what? A lot of the money was actually made from second and third order effects.
BNB up huge -> Cake went to gorillions.
LINK up huge -> Vaporware oracles to gorillions.
Olympus up huge -> an entire season to ohm forks going to billions
And so on.
POTUS launches a $63B token -> every other token looks small in comparison
The ceiling just got blown right off what a ‘reasonable’ valuation for anything crypto is.
Easy money season starts now — just long the things that are going up.
And no, not the last cycle.
Pre.