CurryorNothing

[CurryorNothing @CurryorNothing]

@BiasedHouston The warriors should use this for the rebuild while giving Curry one last run.

Fox + Castle + all the picks --> Stephen Effin Curry

[Alex 👋 @Dubs408]

Spurs the first ever team to lose a series 4-1 and could of been 5-0

[CurryorNothing @CurryorNothing]

@SloppyDave Putting Andre in as CEO is a wild take. Andre was the one who backed all the overpriced M&A to begin with! This company is a total mess. Their best hope is to sell it to larger player.

[CurryorNothing @CurryorNothing]

@kab604 @ValueNotDeadYet That's why I flipped on $FOUR.
I don't need to pay for past mistakes (they were def mistakes). I just need to trust they won't make any new stupid ones.

Put half the FCF to debt paydown, 5% organic growth, by 2032 this is $1B FCF, unlevered. 85m diluted shares. $100/sh

[CurryorNothing @CurryorNothing]

@kab604 @ValueNotDeadYet They had a crap ROIC before GB.

[CurryorNothing @CurryorNothing]

@tembelvitesi @rodrigoaan @ValueNotDeadYet @kab604 @JohnDoeKnowsGuy @CarioCapital Debating $KPG.AX. Not sure if fully puked yet. If AI kills accounting, it'll be a dog. If not, its going to be a multi-bagger. Massive runway.

[CurryorNothing @CurryorNothing]

@kab604 @ValueNotDeadYet You're doing the equivalent of telling me how someone is doing all kinds of things to improve their 3 point shooting...

But then he goes and shoots 30%.

End of the day, they earn 11%. Thats $MET level. $CSU.TO does almost 25% (!). $IBP does > 20%. $KPG.TO is > 25%.

[CurryorNothing @CurryorNothing]

@kab604 @ValueNotDeadYet You're just speaking narratives.
They earn 11% ROIC. They should NEVER do a deal like that again. Unless they pay half what they paid.

[CurryorNothing @CurryorNothing]

@kab604 @rodrigoaan All-in cost incl integration, fees, salaries (to staff up in'tl sales) is going to be ~$3B. Easily double what they should have paid.

[CurryorNothing @CurryorNothing]

I think $FOUR just had its final puke. I'm switching sides. Going to buy in heavy.

Mgmt seems to have learned the tough lesson. M&A isn't about stories, it's about ROIC. Period.

I think the risk of them screwing up again ala GB is off the table.

[CurryorNothing @CurryorNothing]

@kab604 @rodrigoaan I can guarantee you, PE math doesn't work in corp. These guys are used to flipping assets (buy for 6x, sell for 7x). You don't have an exit in corp.

You acquire something for 10x, you're gonna own an asset that earns 7% after-tax. Its not a good return.

[CurryorNothing @CurryorNothing]

@kab604 Not at that price.

[CurryorNothing @CurryorNothing]

@kab604 @rodrigoaan Reverse DCF is the most powerful tool in finance. And nobody does it. It'll help you avoid a LOT of mistakes.

[CurryorNothing @CurryorNothing]

@kab604 @ValueNotDeadYet You're doing the equiv of counting interest income without the write-offs!

Yes, they had some homeruns. They've also had a lot of (big) duds. That's why the ROIC is low teens, and not 20% like $IBP.

[CurryorNothing @CurryorNothing]

@kab604 @ValueNotDeadYet Now that can be interesting. If $FOUR uses GB as a platform to sell restaurant software, great.

I don't buy it. There's a reason software doesn't sell well overseas: economics don't make sense vs manual labor.

And y'all keep forgetting time value of money.

[CurryorNothing @CurryorNothing]

@tembelvitesi @rodrigoaan @ValueNotDeadYet @kab604 @JohnDoeKnowsGuy @CarioCapital $FOUR is a bag of turd that might be trading for half a bag of turd. At some point the levered stub was way too asymmetrical. Wednesday looked like a complete final puke.

See you all at $80.

[CurryorNothing @CurryorNothing]

@casque @ValueNotDeadYet @kab604 Thats cope.

[CurryorNothing @CurryorNothing]

@kab604 @ValueNotDeadYet NA restaurants is from cross-sells. That well is going to run dry. (backlog dissipating).
Stadiums / GB dominate markets, but now saturated. Growth is going to slow dramatically.
Int'l seems to have nice tailwinds. All-in don't count on much more than 5% > 2028.

[CurryorNothing @CurryorNothing]

@XaviercMiller Fox + Harper for Steph Curry.

[CurryorNothing @CurryorNothing]

@kab604 @rodrigoaan It doesn't matter if GB doubles. Or triples. It matters over how long. Its a bust b/c of the NPV of cash flows on GB is crap, compared to $3B upfront cost (banker fees, financing, overhead, new hires, integration, etc.).