kab60

I like stocks that go up. Change my mind quickly. Try not to do dumb shit.

[kab60 @kab604]

Goldman initiating on $AUTO.L with a 'buy'... Anyone with the report?🥸

[kab60 @kab604]

Activist coming in and pushing for 700m in capital returns. Sounds very sensible given they should run with leverage! $AT.L/Autotrader already buying back at a rate of ~13% annually, which suggest mngmt is listening. Easy to see Apax come in as well: https://t.co/0N8nGmCtBm

[kab60 @kab604]

What about 'Barnacles as a Bottleneck'? Ashtead Technology rents out equipment for cleaning of offshore structures... https://t.co/LXTt5HDA0B (I own $AT.L and don't get the recent selloff - on a more serious note, recent TechnipFMC call is good re deep subsea outlook)

[kab60 @kab604]

This one is for all the value bois who missed the AI trade - $LEGH trades at TBV (receivables mostly) and is a play on Mobile Homes as a Bottleneck (MHaaB):

[kab60 @kab604]

@BrownMarubozu @muddywatersre Could be. But it's not a guarantee that reserves are sufficient, not least if inflation picks up. Nor that float won't shrink if pricing gets worse.

[kab60 @kab604]

@BrownMarubozu @muddywatersre Not sure what the difference is. To me it's just about risk/reward and opportunity cost.

[kab60 @kab604]

@MontviewX @BrownMarubozu The important stuff takes very little time to understand... It's a very easy investment in my book.

[kab60 @kab604]

@BillBrewsterTBB @returnoncap @manofsteel12_11 What did he use before? Most of these agreements are pretty sticky, because they come with early termination fees but Shift4 also bundles software for free/cheap to get further ingrained.

[kab60 @kab604]

@Chappietx @AnonValue @SFarringtonBKC Yes... There's obviously value here, Q is how long it takes to realize... They've been selling shares piece-meal, but it's all a bit lackluster... Churning CFO's, buybacks meh, ROE won't command a high mkt value, Americasa venture litigated almost before it closed lol

[kab60 @kab604]

This one is for all the value bois who missed the AI trade - $LEGH trades at TBV (receivables mostly) and is a play on Mobile Homes as a Bottleneck (MHaaB):

[kab60 @kab604]

@AnonValue @SFarringtonBKC So yeah, vs. private credit (and/or a lot of credit alternatives), it's not bad to buy the receivables AND get 3 manufacturing plants thrown in on top... But there's also governance concerns etc, and for me, most of all, there are more interesting alternatives

[kab60 @kab604]

@AnonValue @SFarringtonBKC Yeah, it's not that bad, but it's also hard to get excited given they stuff every penny into loans... Manufacturing biz obv depressed, but that loan book also just making ROE trend lower

[kab60 @kab604]

It's cheap and possibly surprising to the upside, but stuffing all that equity into receivables makes ROE a bit 'meh'. But since the founders kicked out a young investment-banker-turned-CEO and took over the biz again, conference calls have become much more entertaining.

[kab60 @kab604]

This one is for all the value bois who missed the AI trade - $LEGH trades at TBV (receivables mostly) and is a play on Mobile Homes as a Bottleneck (MHaaB):

[kab60 @kab604]

@SFarringtonBKC I'm not laughing, I'm completely serious! These guys should print cash after some very lackluster years

[kab60 @kab604]

Anyone with UBS' initiation on US franchised car dealers?🙏

[kab60 @kab604]

@one_foothurdle @stonkmetal They're extracting a ransom (insane take rate) in a niche where they're completely reliant on the goodwill of governments (tax advantages). Of course things have changed for the worse if/as everybody is starting to push back.

[kab60 @kab604]

Chile wants to fine Pluxee 40m $plx. Pluxee has some Blue Chip Stamps-vibes to it, which makes it intriguing, but everybody seems to hate them and their crazy take rates, so why bother when the whole payments sector is bombed?

[kab60 @kab604]

@one_foothurdle @stonkmetal Despite a massive tailwind from inflation, higher rates and +1.5B in M&A, net income growth has been rather pedestrian.

[kab60 @kab604]

@one_foothurdle @stonkmetal Benefit is captured in EPS growth. The mkt isn't missing anything. Buffett made sure everybody understand the value of float. But it's only wonderful as long as the float grows.

[kab60 @kab604]

@one_foothurdle @stonkmetal I haven't seen anyone pitch these stocks without mentioning the negative WC and float dynamics. Everybody understands that.

[kab60 @kab604]

@one_foothurdle @stonkmetal Yes, it's basically a form of tax arbitrage reliant on the goodwill of governments, and increasingly everybody seems pissed that this French cartel extracts a massive ransom. Add in piss-poor M&A/capital allocation and I just don't see why one would bother.