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$FLY is running $NVDA compute from the moon and down 53% since May?
Firefly has long been my favorite space stock and looks very attractive at $27/share ($4.5B MC).
One of its slept on superpowers is monetizing the vast data it collects, and this capability is being highlighted on the $NVDA blog.
Blue Ghost 1 sent home 120GB of raw lunar data that scientists are STILL processing a year later. NASA even issued a $10M follow on order to buy more data than they originally negotiated.
On Blue Ghost 2 this year, Firefly's Ocula imaging service runs $NVDA Jetson directly in lunar orbit. First time edge AI has ever operated around the moon.
Instead of dumping raw data down to Earth, Ocula runs the inference ON ORBIT and beams back only what the customer wants, in near real time.
Firefly's own SciTec AI software sits on top of the Jetson chain. Its Elytra spacecraft stays parked at the moon for a FIVE YEAR mission running it.
This is the high margin AI/software engine hiding inside a "space stock".
- Map landing sites for the next wave of lunar missions
- Detect minerals like ilmenite for future lunar energy
- Track objects and operations across cislunar space
Data processing in space feels like the near term opportunity for orbital AI until full on data centers get built there.
Hot take: $HTZ is the one name to be long if you think oil prices will stay higher for longer
Hertz just broke out of a year-long falling wedge. At $6.32, it combines a completed fleet turnaround, multi-quarter road-trip demand from sustained jet-fuel disruption, and undervalued AV optionality.
Iโm long 15k shares and here is why I think itโs positioned to 2-3x shortly.
Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed ~40 days post-Iran escalation. Ship traffic still <10% of normal. Jet fuel spiked 86โ132% (Argus index hit $209/barrel). IATA says normalization will take months.
Result: airfares exploding, flights cut. https://t.co/FaeutKA4hN traffic +15% in late March. 33% of current rentals are now road trips/driving vacations. Company pushing one-way/last-minute deals. Shift looks sticky into summer.
Fleet turnaround is done:
DPU hit $300 target in 2025 (down 44% YoY from $418)
Youngest fleet in nearly a decade
Model Year 2026 secured at target prices/volumes
Manheim Index (March 2026): 215.3 (+6.2% YoY) โ highest since summer 2023. Higher residuals = lower future depreciation.
Q1 early read (April 6): mid-single-digit revenue growth, positive RPD, stable utilization. Earnings May 7.
Beyond rental: CEO Gil West (Q4 call): โWe are one of just a limited number of companies that have all the necessary ingredients to be a major player in AVs.โ Four-pillar platform (Rent-a-Car + Hertz Car Sales + Service + Mobility with largest rideshare fleet + AV pilots) already scaling. Market prices zero optionality.
Valuation still cheap vs peer $CAR (stock did a 3x in the last 30 days):
P/S = 0.24x (CAR 0.90x)
EV/Revenue = 2.35x (CAR 3.32x)
CAR has cleaner balance sheet (net corp debt ~$5.55B vs HTZ ~$18.5B). Both have negative equity (CAR โ$3.13B, HTZ โ$459M) and negative FCF โ normal for fleet capex.
Technicals confirm: clean weekly breakout, green Hull Suite MA support at $5.80โ$6.00, bullish MACD across frames. Short interest ~49% of float, ~9 days-to-cover.
Risks: high debt and negative equity (de-risking with EBITDA growth). If Hormuz normalizes faster, demand tailwind moderates, but IATA forecasts months of pressure.
Updated targets:
Base: $12 near-term
Bull: $30+ (AV priced in)
Tail: $80+ (dominant AV fleet platform)
2โ12x upside from here with real catalysts.
May 7 earnings is next catalyst. Would be awesome to hear thoughts from @BillAckman on this!
@perry_lin1@ConvexDispatch When you think about $500+/month for maintenance per vehicle and hundreds of thousands of vehicles itโs no longer nickels.
@FrontRangeHQ@jrouldz@ConvexDispatch@StockSavvyShay $htz wants to change their current financial model from rentals only to the following,
- Autonomous vehicle fleet management and services.
- Retail direct to consumer online sales (Carvana style) $cvna
- Traditional Rentals
@FrontRangeHQ@jrouldz@ConvexDispatch@StockSavvyShay It was announced on the last call, so I think they are in the process of building the service based on what the CEO has said. Uber also is a likely partner. No details have been released yet.
@jrouldz@FrontRangeHQ@ConvexDispatch@StockSavvyShay In the earnings call they mentioned they are planning to provide services to robotaxis which is separate to consumer EVs. Hertz wants to contract the services they need, from tires, brakes, cleaning, etc. They want to use the existing $htz infrastructure to handle this. Massive.
@FirstSquawk $Htz has mentioned they are gearing towards performing all of the maintenance on these types of fleets. This is very bullish to see progress this fast. I assume an announcement from Hertz should come out soon about this.