David Barwick (Econostream)

Editor in Chief at Econostream Media, reporter on ECB, other European central banks and debt issuers

[David Barwick (Econostream) @DB_Econostream]

It is hardly inevitable that the European Central Bank Governing Council will put the hiking on pause in September, but the ECB’s latest consumer expectations survey could significantly bolster the doves' case.

https://t.co/CjRakS7Ct5

[David Barwick (Econostream) @DB_Econostream]

@xadarcy You will be missed. All the very best for all your future undertakings.

[David Barwick (Econostream) @DB_Econostream]

ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus tells Econostream that the ECB could consider early next year picking up the pace of QT, and says that 'at this point, the risk of doing too little is still higher than the risk of doing too much.'

https://t.co/SaEkqljV83

[David Barwick (Econostream) @DB_Econostream]

ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras tells Econostream that new data showing economic weakness cast doubt on whether the ECB’s central economic scenario is materialising and underscore the tentative nature of any further monetary tightening.

https://t.co/HskF1lnA0u

[Xavier D'Arcy @xadarcy]

Exclusive: I spoke with the ECB's Mário Centeno in Sintra, who said policymakers should be 'careful' about committing in advance to a July hike, which went 'against the strategy' of the ECB https://t.co/VGSTFIKygF

[David Barwick (Econostream) @DB_Econostream]

ECB Governing Council member Mārtiņš Kazāks tells Econostream that he is in no hurry to start active ECB asset sales and that "there’s no need for any changes to the PEPP reinvestment at the moment", as this is "also important for flexibility reasons".

https://t.co/di5clQRYA9

[David Barwick (Econostream) @DB_Econostream]

ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann tells Econostream that ‘we need to go beyond a 4% interest rate’ to fight inflation and that at such a level ‘we could more easily decide about the PEPP’, though involving the PEPP in QT ‘won’t be an easy ride.’
https://t.co/MmU6eflGKj

[David Barwick (Econostream) @DB_Econostream]

A review of individual ECB Governing Council members' likely stand on May’s policy decision confirms that a 25bp hike is the leading option, but also suggests that the call is fairly close, leaving data yet to be released in the driver's seat to the end.
https://t.co/lCf6r2NvVq

[David Barwick (Econostream) @DB_Econostream]

ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch tells Econostream that ‘erring on the side of a robust rate increase that will keep inflation under control makes sense’ and ‘that we are very close to the terminal rate, I honestly don’t read that from the data’.
https://t.co/7pnGu797MP

[David Barwick (Econostream) @DB_Econostream]

ECB Governing Council member and Central Bank of Malta Governor Edward Scicluna tells Econostream in an interview that there are ‘no indications that we’re seeing’ the light at the end of the inflation tunnel yet.
https://t.co/imC0cRJR8d

[Xavier D'Arcy @xadarcy]

Happy ECB decision day to all those who celebrate! 🇪🇺 Whilst a 50bp hike looks like a dead cert later on, there's still plenty at stake today. For more, check out our @EconoStream ECB preview ⬇️https://t.co/JwYAIZS9cz

[David Barwick (Econostream) @DB_Econostream]

The ‘dilemma’ ECB Council member Yannis Stournaras referred to in an op-ed piece on December 25 – how big a hit to growth can policymakers tolerate? – is being resolved in favour of more rate hikes by the area's economic strength, an ECB insider tells us.
https://t.co/oGATFJwPru

[David Barwick (Econostream) @DB_Econostream]

ECB Governing Council member and Banco de Portugal Governor Mario Centeno tells Econostream in an interview that if the ECB hikes interest rates to above neutral levels, ‘it is very important to underline’ that this can only be a temporary situation.

https://t.co/evcYHH4Ak4

[David Barwick (Econostream) @DB_Econostream]

ECB Governing Council member and prominent monetary policy hawk Robert Holzmann told us today that as things now stand, he'd prefer a 75bp rate hike next month, but that he could accept 50bp if November were to bring a “major reduction” in euro area HICP. https://t.co/mx5uWu6YHs

[David Barwick (Econostream) @DB_Econostream]

A review of ECB Council members' potential stand on a 75bp hike in September suggests a move of such unusual magnitude for the euro area could well prevail, though the call is closer than in July.
https://t.co/4JZlwXlKxy

[David Barwick (Econostream) @DB_Econostream]

A review of ECB Council members' potential stand on 50bp in July suggests such a hike could stand a decent chance based on the numbers, unless new data argue against it, leadership quashes it or the anti-fragmentation tool doesn’t even convince the ECB.

https://t.co/GVJKQHacZf

[David Barwick (Econostream) @DB_Econostream]

A concerted attempt by the European Central Bank to support the euro via verbal intervention, let alone policymaking, is unlikely, according to ECB insiders who spoke to Econostream recently on the subject.

https://t.co/OPgZnRYuXF

[David Barwick (Econostream) @DB_Econostream]

The addition to the ECB’s toolkit of a new tool to counter financial market fragmentation retains its attractiveness for some, but ECB insiders who spoke to Econostream generally downplayed the subject or regarded it as downright unnecessary ex ante.

https://t.co/qXN5PsqVC2

[David Barwick (Econostream) @DB_Econostream]

ECB President Lagarde took care not to show much bias in any direction, but as in March, the message came though that Russia’s aggression against Ukraine was not standing in the way of policy normalisation.

https://t.co/NQu6zTK6FF

[David Barwick (Econostream) @DB_Econostream]

Although ECB President Lagarde is likely to be reticent about the programme the Eurotower is working on to keep sovereign spreads in check, the facility may face a rocky road when it comes to internal approval, Econostream understands.

https://t.co/uQnYmDsjcY