Econostream

Independent news agency delivering exclusive interviews and sharp, analytical reporting on Eurosystem central banks and global debt issuance.

[Econostream @EconoStream]

🚨 OUT NOW: ECB EXCLUSIVE

We spoke to ECB Governing Council member @martinskazaks about the outlook for interest rates, inflation and the next steps for monetary policy.

Some of the key headlines from our interview 👇

[Econostream @EconoStream]

ECB Tone Meter: Both Indices Now in Hawkish Territory

Both indices of Econostream's ECB Tone Meter have now crossed into "hawkish" territory (+2.5 to +5), up from "slightly hawkish."

Both were still only slightly hawkish when the ECB hiked in June and September.

The difference now is that more policymakers seem to be on board with further tightening, and their signals are becoming increasingly explicit. It looks like it would take some pretty good news between now and December to avoid another hike.

[Econostream @EconoStream]

🗣️ ECB Comment Recaps

What have Governing Council members been saying since the last ECB monetary policy meeting?

Ahead of each new meeting, we bring together their key public remarks, organised by topic, to provide an overview of the different views within the Governing Council on inflation, growth, interest rates and other policy issues.

🔗 Last ECB Comment Recap: https://t.co/XnkzX2tDK2

[Econostream @EconoStream]

Beyond our regular ECB news coverage, a quick reminder of some of the other ECB content we publish at Econostream:

📊 ECB Tone Meter: Tracking how hawkish or dovish Governing Council members are, and how their views evolve over time.

📰 Weekly ECB Tone Meter Updates: Summarizing the weekly changes in our ECB Tone Meter and the comments driving those moves.

📋 ECB Survey: Polling economists ahead of ECB policy meetings on their rate expectations, the economic outlook and other key policy questions.

🗣️ ECB Comment Recaps: Bringing together the key comments from Governing Council members since the last monetary policy meeting, organized by topic.

[Econostream @EconoStream]

📋 ECB Survey

Ahead of each ECB monetary policy meeting, we survey economists from major financial institutions on their expectations for the upcoming decision, the future rate path and other key policy questions.

We publish the main findings ahead of each meeting, alongside a full report with detailed results.

🔗 Last survey: https://t.co/HsRStsPXr8

[Econostream @EconoStream]

🚨 New ECB #exclusive interview coming out very shortly.

Keep an eye on https://t.co/g7yULgdBjz

[Econostream @EconoStream]

Lane had been among the more cautious voices on the ECB's Executive Board, even as several Governing Council members became increasingly explicit about December.

His latest remarks bring him much closer to those who seem comfortable with further tightening.

[Econostream @EconoStream]

We noticed a change in tone from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane in just a few days.

On Friday, he was defending the October pause, noting that the ECB needed to wait for more data. Today, he explicitly endorsed a December hike if the economic outlook remains unchanged.

Let’s take a closer look 🧵

[Econostream @EconoStream]

Just a few days later, Lane said this today:

"If the information set we have in December is exactly the same as the information set today, then I think it would be prudent indeed to hike."

He is no longer just keeping December open, as he now says that the current outlook would justify another increase.

[Econostream @EconoStream]

🫂 A measured farewell from Isabel Schnabel.

Her final speech as an ECB Executive Board member offered no clear hints on near-term policy, even as several colleagues are openly pointing to a December hike. With her departure approaching, she may be choosing her words more carefully to avoid moving markets.

📈 Schnabel's comments today were hawkish, but less so than some of her colleagues. Given her weight in our #ECBToneMeter, her remarks pulled down both the Executive Board and Governing Council indices.

[Isabel Schnabel 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @Isabel_Schnabel]

Tomorrow (5 November) at 9:05 am, I will deliver my final speech as a member of the @ecb's Executive Board, giving my personal reflections on what the past seven years have taught me about monetary policy. The session will be livestreamed on our website.

[Econostream @EconoStream]

Counterbalancing voices emphasized tighter financial conditions:

🇮🇹 Panetta: further hikes could be necessary, but higher long-term yields are already tightening financing conditions
🇫🇮 Rehn: defended the October pause (stable underlying inflation, moderate wages, disinflationary effect of higher borrowing costs)
🇫🇷🇨🇾 Moulin & Patsalides: limited inflation spillovers

Full Tone Meter breakdown: https://t.co/Fe4nQqqUV7

[Econostream @EconoStream]

‼️ ECB tone turned sharply more hawkish last week, and President Lagarde was the single biggest driver.

#ECBToneMeter:
🔹Governing Council: +0.85 → +1.68
🔹Executive Board: +0.66 → +1.75

Excluding her remarks:
• Governing Council would have been +1.50
• Executive Board only +0.60

What changed and who else pushed or pushed back 🧵

P.S. How high do you put the odds of a December hike after this week’s comments? 🧐

[Econostream @EconoStream]

Others also opened the door to a December move:

🇭🇷 Žigman: decision on another increase could come as early as next meeting
🇱🇹 Šimkus: inflationary pressures point toward higher rates
🇮🇪 Makhlouf: seriously considered October hike; ready to act in December if warranted
🇦🇹 Kocher: policy response may be needed if inflation risks don’t ease

[Econostream @EconoStream]

‼️ Sharp hawkish spike in our #ECBToneMeter following Lagarde's press conference.

Her repeated assertion that the direction of rates is "clear" barring "major developments" suggests another hike is now the baseline expectation.

Her more hawkish tone lifted both indices:
🔹 Governing Council: +0.81 → +1.27
🔹 Executive Board: +0.60 → +1.70

[Econostream @EconoStream]

👉 Well positioned:

📌 October 29: "The Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the current elevated uncertainty."
📌 September 10: "With today’s decision, the Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the conflict."

[Econostream @EconoStream]

‼️ The ECB holds rates steady at 2.5%, as expected.

Let's check the language of its statement today vs September 10: What changed and what stayed the same on its monetary policy statement?

Find out in this #thread 🧵

[Econostream @EconoStream]

👉 Implications of the war:

📌 October 29: "The increased magnitude and duration of the energy shock, as well as the implications for indirect and second-round effects, are likely to drive up inflation and lower growth."
📌 September 10: "In relation to the energy shock, the updated scenarios put together by staff illustrate the broad range of outcomes for how growth and inflation would evolve under different assumptions about its intensity and duration, as well as its indirect and second-round effects."