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I've gotten a lot of very uninformed replies today about how the U.S. cannot do this because Iran will X, Y, Z.
This is childishly ignorant.
Iran has been attacking the Saudi oil industry with drones, rockets, and ballistic missiles for years. They've barely made a dent.
Iran has been committing piracy against oil vessels in the Gulf, Strait, and Red Sea for years. There were similar surges in 2020, 2023, and 2024.
The recent slow in OPEC production is because storage capacity is filling up. Its filling up because the ships won't move. The ships won't move because they are scared.
None of this is actually because of damage Iran can or has caused. The fear of the thing is worse than the thing itself.
Estimates are that Iran has placed less than two dozen mines in the Strait. Hazardous, sure, but not impassible. The ships are waiting because they are enormously expensive and so is insurance.
We're subsidizing insurance and have offered escorts, but risk assessment is up to the Captains, ultimately, and they've mostly decided to try to wait. They will move once a clearing operation can proceed; that clearing operation is probably on hold while some more littoral defenses are destroyed.
(By the way, if the Captains were worried about this becoming a protracted conflict, they wouldn't be staying in the Gulf. They'd have taken the offer for an escort and hauled ass. They're sitting tight because they expect this to be over soon.)
Yes, even the damage at GCC oil facilities is essentially superficial. None of it is actually substantively reducing their output capacities.
Iran is not "holding back." They are firing everything they can. This is what they can muster. They failed to mine the Strait in time because Khamenei was too committed to his chihuahua act to pull the trigger—if he had done so, it would have guaranteed destruction of his governmental system. By the time it became apparent that was the actual objective, he was dead and no one was around to give the order.
Now the IRGC's Navy is either in port, in tunnels underground, or at the bottom of the Gulf. They may be rationing drones and missiles, but they aren't holding back some massive barrage when we cross a red line or something.
We killed the Supreme Leader. We killed the Assembly of Experts. We killed their commanders. We've sunk their ships, destroyed their planes, and allegedly even blew up a school—they aren't holding back. There is no greater escalation on their part. There is no red line that we have not crossed.
I seriously implore you to have some measure of self-reflection and awareness to know that you don't know what you're talking about on this subject. For the sake of your own dignity, at least.
The only thing restraining the United States from returning Persia to a 19th Century state is our own objectives and interests. There are reasons we may not want to do this, but they are our own; not something imposed by the effectively non-existent resistance of the Iranian state.
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