D&A Metropolitan

Micro/smallcap investor and board member at $BOF. Long term ideas on my blog below. Personal thoughts, not financial advice.

[D&A Metropolitan @DMetropolitan]

$CURI latest piece at link in bio.
Curiosity Stream is one of the largest documentary streaming platforms and is expected to double earnings through AI licensing deals and improvements in the core business. Despite this, the equity trades at a low 2.5x forward cash flows. 1/n

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

I'm launching a new newsletter about using AI tools to investing.

My first article on whether Citrini's Analyst #3 could use AI to reach similar conclusions is out now.

Please subscribe and let me know what you think.

Link in the comments

Thanks for @Uzocapital for convincing me to start this

[Dylan Marrello @ragingbullcap]

$DBO.TO if this update is underwhelming to you, I recommend reading it more closely and thinking through what the drivers of this thesis are.

1. To state the obvious (which the company repeats in every press release) the royalty business is driven by content and therefore quarterly comparisons (both sequential and YoY) are not instructive. What matters for the royalty stream is: 1) forward box office $'s (estimates for 2026 are well above last years); 2) how the change in royalties compares to the box office (outperformed again); and 3) systems growth (which drives royalty growth independent of "same store" growth.

2. That last piece is the only thing in their control topline wise, and they just had the best quarter ever in that department (all time high of 86)...active screen count up 5% sequentially.

3. Crucially. Cash increased by $6m in the quarter, but half of that is attributable to an in flow related to deferred revenue (balance jumped from 700K to 4.1m in three months). That suggests a meanginful wave of continued systems growth imminent, and apparently an increased customer financing component (which I need to confirm with mgmt, but that's my interpretation, and would be meaningful for cash flow dynamics and roics.)

4. Cost control. 61% operating profit despite 4% topline growth YoY. Opex increase $100K QoQ, but that was all driven by R&D and S&M (i.e. investment), while Admin costs dropped.

5. DTA recorded. I don't need to explain what that implies.

6. Note the language in the press release regarding the cash balance: "Our cash balance of $16.2 million provides the Company with the financial flexibility to continue its mission of expanding its operations and customer base in a strategic and methodical manner.”

There was no such language in prior press releases. Are they looking at financing structures for partners that want the format but lack the balance sheet to pay up front? Not clear, but see @JonCukierwar write up.

[Dylan Marrello @ragingbullcap]

Talked through $dbo.to thesis with @BobbyKKraft earlier this week.

[D&A Metropolitan @DMetropolitan]

@Uzocapital @Stocks_Stones @maxwellhouse99 You might be able to subscribe on https://t.co/ISITQCmXb6

[D&A Metropolitan @DMetropolitan]

Excellent writeup on $dbo.to. FY27 estimates have significant upside too given that royalty revenue per screen has grown significantly in recent years. If consumer adoption continues we could see an additional 10-20% tailwind to royalties. Long

[D&A Metropolitan @DMetropolitan]

$ZOMD.v Looks cheap but between management's reluctance to spend cash/provide guidance, feels like a value trap

[D&A Metropolitan @DMetropolitan]

$TRBR.V
Happy ending for Trubar shareholders with the company being sold for ~3x 2025 sales, although a little surprised they elected to sell the company this early

[taobanker @taobanker]

$TRBR being acquired for $1.64 in canadian monies

this is my crown achievement as a fake PM, with my Analyst Emeritus @DMetropolitan having sent me a pitch for feedback about 18 months ago

my feedback: goodco/badco is usually a terrible thesis, but this sounds great!

[D&A Metropolitan @DMetropolitan]

@SeattleTechie40 Ideally stock price goes over $11.50 and some warrants get exercised... worse solution is management sells some of their shares

[D&A Metropolitan @DMetropolitan]

Strong day from $AENT even with the market puking. Earnings were very strong with double digit topline growth. Margins were softer than I anticipated due to strength in gaming, but demand across all segments was exceptionally strong. Momentum should carry into Q2
Disc: Long

[D&A Metropolitan @DMetropolitan]

$AENT reporting after close. Not expecting anything exciting on the top line given tough comps and challenges in gaming segment, but looking for gross margins to hold 15.8% and commentary on new licensing deals.

[D&A Metropolitan @DMetropolitan]

$AENT reporting after close. Not expecting anything exciting on the top line given tough comps and challenges in gaming segment, but looking for gross margins to hold 15.8% and commentary on new licensing deals.

[D&A Metropolitan @DMetropolitan]

I'm long $DBO.to but wouldn't be surprised to see some profit taking after the recent rally. Quarter should be flattish/down slightly QoQ but with royalty revenue increasing at its current pace, we should start seeing smoother earnings and a very strong back half. Still cheap IMO with a long runway

[Nitin Gupta @nitininvests]

I'll be very happy to be proven wrong, but $DBO.TO $DBOXF will probably come in lower YoY and QoQ, mostly due to fewer new theatrical installs in August and September (though these appear to have picked back up in November).

Expecting the sim business to continue showing strength, with a good boost this quarter from the Vegas Arcade opening. Royalties should be flattish QoQ, a testament to how well the product is performing even with a light release schedule.

I have trimmed 25% of my position since the stock is up 120% in 5 months when the idea was shared. There is a possibility of an overreaction to the downside as the comps could look weak optically.

[D&A Metropolitan @DMetropolitan]

@Mike10947310 After the ATM debt is very manageable (1.5x-2x levered). Seems like market is still skeptical that the deal with $APLD materializes

[D&A Metropolitan @DMetropolitan]

@Mike10947310 Spoke to management recently and said they were looking for more volume before exercising the ATM

[D&A Metropolitan @DMetropolitan]

$AMPG It was clear that they wanted to raise capital which was clearly a drag on the stock. After this, the overhang should be gone although it may have been better to slam the ATM.
No position currently

[D&A Metropolitan @DMetropolitan]

@87_trades DMed

[Clark Square Capital @ClarkSquareCap]

Idea thread #2!

What's your favorite special situation? (Spin/m&a/etc any market cap).

Add a sentence explaining why you like it + valuation.

I will compile the responses and share them with everyone.

Please retweet for visibility. Thx in advance! 🙏

[Singularity Research @SingularityRes]

An interesting trade idea out now.

Checkout at the usual link

$GOOG

[D&A Metropolitan @DMetropolitan]

@SingularityRes First writeup I've seen on a prediction market play, interesting.