Remember, even if the Atlantic hurricane season ends up being below to near normal, it only takes one storm in your community to make it a bad hurricane season for you. Prepare this year like you would any other!
Confidence continues to increase on an expansive major winter storm impacting much of the southern and eastern portions of the Country Friday through Sunday. Key Messages are updated.
Good morning,
Most communities are currently without electricity,as a result you might be unable to get through to your families. We are hoping they will be able to send through calls and messages soon.
🎥: Fyffes Pen, St.Elizabeth
The satellite derived wind field really puts the storm scale into prospective. Around half the Jamaica will see #hurricane force winds from #Melissa, but several parishes (Westmoreland, Saint Elizabeth, Manchester, Saint James, Trelawny) will see extreme winds over 95kts/110 mph.
With the model guidence showing more agreement this afternoon, it confirms that Tropical Storm #Melissa will produce near-historic amounts of rainfall and flooding for Jamaica, Hispanola, and eastern Cuba when it makes landfall as a major #hurricane.
Hail is very non-uniformly distributed around the world.
For much of the world, you almost never see hail large enough to damage solar panels. The central USA does have some issues though.
https://t.co/LB3lohEdRn
Google DeepMind has been extremely impressive this year - these stats are consistent with what I've seen in some individual storm analyses. A few thoughts:
1) Beating NHC for track is quite impressive. AI could be a major tool to help track forecasts keep improving.
2) Given a lot of the AI intensity is basically bias correction, I expected it to be similar to SHIPS/LGEM. But it's actually much better and competitive with HAFS already.
3) We still probably need better, high-resolution training datasets to take these models to the next level.