Dan Tayman

Sports stats nerd, yinzer displaced in Cleveland. Data Science @CWRU

[Dan Tayman @Dan10900]

This model started with setting McDavid as the baseline at 100, and Robo at ~80 (I thought that was fair, but depending on contract that could change). So those two were very high compared to everyone else

[Dan Tayman @Dan10900]

Collected a bunch of mock trades to estimate what "the public" thinks is fair value for NHLers.

Obviously there wer a lot more trades for Werenski/Robo/Larkin (over 1k).

These are values based off estimating pick values (then reset so McD is 100)

[Dan Tayman @Dan10900]

They also have a lot of total games played last year, T1st again for Fs, and 3rd overall. This means even less I feel, but I had the #s so I figured I'd look at it

[Dan Tayman @Dan10900]

Pens have the T3rd most Fs that played at least 1 NHL game last year (19), and T1st most D men (12). Dubas loves his depth. Does this correlate to success at all - no. But it seemed like they had a ton of guys so I wanted to look into it (holy shit CGY too). Rosters as of ~7PM

[Dan Tayman @Dan10900]

In terms of guys who actually played last year, the pens have T1st Fs but only 6 Ds with 40+ GP. Still one of only 4 teams with 20+ NHLers on roster. Again, doesn't mean much, but they don't need to make trades to fill out the roster or rush rookies.

[Dan Tayman @Dan10900]

@jmarshfof Agreed, a move is almost certainly going to happen with RDs, but Dubas does love having tons of depth guys

[Dan Tayman @Dan10900]

People commenting on the pens 38 d men as if we don't also have 200 depth Fs, Robo, Dewar, Lizotte, Brazeu, Soderblom, McGroarty, Hayes, Broz, Hallander, Howe, Koivunen all potential "guys" plus Chinakhov/Kindel/Novak fighting for 2 top 6 spots

[Jesse Marshall @jmarshfof]

Gonna be the first team in NHL history to roll 9 D

[Dan Tayman @Dan10900]

@jmarshfof Fighting for bottom 6 spots, character limit, but I was just commenting that we have a lot of depth guys at both F and D!

[Dan Tayman @Dan10900]

I remember Dubas signing like a billion depth guys/older prospects I liked in TOR. Guess he's still doing that in PIT, hopefully a few more hit this year

[Dan Tayman @Dan10900]

@piexpri @trithart_ @j_a155 I'd be more worried about the limited retention spots than cap space for any potential Rust/Raks/EK deals (incredibly minor issue)

[Dan Tayman @Dan10900]

Don't understand the near universal hate on this deal. Korczak put up probably better defensive numbers, better offensive numbers (did not play with EK), is younger (and bigger) and signed to a reasonable deal vs Wotherspoon u potentially have to overpay right before he turns 30.

[Pittsburgh Penguins @penguins]

The Penguins have acquired defenseman Kaedan Korczak from the Vegas Golden Knights in exchange for Parker Wotherspoon.

Details: https://t.co/JDAkhmBVXH

[Dan Tayman @Dan10900]

@TopDownHockey @EDLAnalytics Tbf I do think there is a benefit in keeping him in at 7'1. Obv ur extrapolating the model, in this case, too high, but if u changed his height to 6'6 he's ranked ~1k. I do think there is benefit being 7'1 vs 6'6, enough to be ranked 110 prolly not, but to be worth pick 201, yeah

[Dan Tayman @Dan10900]

@NBI_Hockey Yeah, this covo just gave me an idea to look into the ~100 most similar prospect profiles to someone and look at what the 99th percentile outcome is, what the 1st percentile outcome is etc

[Dan Tayman @Dan10900]

@NBI_Hockey Yeah that's kinda what I was saying. I guess I read "potential" in the literal sense of the best that player could get/the 99th percentile outcome.

I think people also vastly overrate the chances a player hits said ceiling is the larger "issue" in online prospect discourse

[Dan Tayman @Dan10900]

@j_a155 And Galvas is probably going to come directly over.

I think the NCAA is the ideal path for most players anyway

[Dan Tayman @Dan10900]

Bc prospects never gain weight with NHL S&C coaches and meal plans.

I think skating and weight/strength are 2 of the easiest things to "fix" about prospects.

Plus these guys can score despite those limitations.

[Cam Robinson @Hockey_Robinson]

Have the Penguins just picked the skinniest crop of players ever?

Liam Ruck - 176lbs
Markus Ruck - 168lbs
Tomas Galvas - 168lbs
Pierce Mbuyi - 163lbs

[Dan Tayman @Dan10900]

@jmarshfof Gonna be Linn or Preston to WSH, has to be a dub guy

[Dan Tayman @Dan10900]

@jmarshfof Don't hate missing out on Klepov, he's a crazy hot head (in a good way)

[Dan Tayman @Dan10900]

@DanHoppOPS The WHL is the SEC of the NHL draft.