Dan Gamarnik

@UCSB PhD in PoliSci | @UChicago MA |prev @nsfgrfp Fellow | Studying IR conflict | Some jokes | Are RTs endorsements? Who can say

[Dan Gamarnik @DanGamarnik]

@JohnHolbein1 And that's just the supplemental online appendix

[Dan Gamarnik @DanGamarnik]

made a semi-fun, deep dive into the fate(s) of IR realism in academia: The Strange Fate(s) of IR Realism

[Dan Gamarnik @DanGamarnik]

@myopiniondog @LizHurra Are you sure?

[Dan Gamarnik @DanGamarnik]

for the link: https://t.co/vNqdRi40zh

[Dan Gamarnik @DanGamarnik]

made a semi-fun, deep dive into the fate(s) of IR realism in academia: The Strange Fate(s) of IR Realism

[Christopher Derick Varn @TheRealVarnVlog]

"I survived on"

I was homeless twice. Even after I graduated from college, went through three different careers before working in education and publishing, I have never even imagined living in NYC because of the rent costs, even when they are half of what they are now. In the first recession of the aughts, I literally fed two people on 50 dollars a week. Now that is 20 years, so that is probably about 100 dollars today in purchasing power. My account was in the red, and my wife was laid off a lot at the time for two years. Together, we netted less than 40k as a household for most of our marriage (one year we both had decent jobs and hit like 60k that year as a household, but then 2008 happened).

I literally left the States to get started saving money. I got into Emory and couldn't go. I had NO health insurance at all until I was 27. Do not play that game with me. I am "upper middle class" now. But rare for a "red" I know, but I am upwardly mobile. Despite that, I couldn't and still can't replicate my parents' lifestyle, who were formally a lower class rung than me by liberal accounting.

If you PhDs want to poverty-porn each other, go ahead. I would NEVER ask anyone else to live that way.

[Matt Duss @mattduss]

Actual diagram from Gorka's dissertation.

[Dan Gamarnik @DanGamarnik]

It's like poetry it rhymes - George Lucas

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Well how about that

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

Iran’s new Supreme Leader may make this war more dangerous than the one he replaces.

History shows that when leaders are killed at the start of conflicts, their successors often escalate to prove authority.

It’s a pattern I call the Harder Successor Problem.

A thread.

[Dan Gamarnik @DanGamarnik]

@myopiniondog @LizHurra Have you noticed that oil’s gone up the past few days after Iran closed the strait?

[Dan Gamarnik @DanGamarnik]

@myopiniondog @LizHurra Take a guess

[kev joon @never_oppressed]

Apocalyptic scenes from Tehran tonight. I’ve never seen something like this.

[Omar García-Ponce @o_garcia_ponce]

Just read a fascinating new paper by @Giammacco, Soliman, & @juanf_vargas on how a supply shock of cocaine traveled through global trade networks and left violence in its wake.

See brief post on my Substack.
https://t.co/Sd2FWWw49F

Link to paper https://t.co/Z8MXE2B5r4

[Dan Gamarnik @DanGamarnik]

Why is everything a monarchy now

[Reuters @Reuters]

JUST IN: Iran indicated it had chosen Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba as his successor https://t.co/XDYfWsYeAP

[Dan Gamarnik @DanGamarnik]

I've written on this before but there are huge limits to AI running regressions https://t.co/0erVlzbcpD

[Alexander Kustov @akoustov]

11/ Qualitative research will increase in relative value. If AI can synthesize literature and run regressions, the premium shifts to what it cannot do: fieldwork, interviews, archival work—generating new data from hard-to-reach contexts that did not previously exist.

[Stephen Wertheim @stephenwertheim]

Feb. 2017: "Trump is no isolationist, whether caricatured or actual. Rather than seeking to withdraw from the world, he vows to exploit it. Far from limiting the area of war, he threatens ruthless violence against globe-spanning adversaries and glorifies martial victory. In short, the president is a militarist." https://t.co/0vAttONpUp

[Dan Gamarnik @DanGamarnik]

btw Goldman Sachs estimates we'll get $100 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is shut down for 5 weeks. JP Morgan thinks an extended war could reach $120 a barrel

h/t @bwreedbgr

[Dan Gamarnik @DanGamarnik]

Oil is around ~$75 a barrel right now btw

[Dan Gamarnik @DanGamarnik]

btw Goldman Sachs estimates we'll get $100 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is shut down for 5 weeks. JP Morgan thinks an extended war could reach $120 a barrel

h/t @bwreedbgr

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

BREAKING: Jim Cramer says the oil market is signaling the Iran war won't spiral, and that's bullish for stocks, per CNBC

[Dan Gamarnik @DanGamarnik]

For sources: https://t.co/9SZ5vzx5Zs