Dan Graphel

Cycles, not candles. Made it in one cycle, lost it in the next. Now I journal every move in public. Multi-asset, rotated by the cycle. Not financial advice.

[Dan Graphel @DanGraphel]

1/ In 2021, my portfolio was up roughly 100x.
By the end of 2023, most of it was gone.
No hack. No scam. I just didn't understand cycles.
This is that story, and why this account exists. ↓

[Dan Graphel @DanGraphel]

@BobLoukas A losing streak this long is a fact about the weekly chart. The bigger question is what the monthly chart says. My own read is that BTC broke out of its sideways range in October, so this may be a pullback inside the early uptrend. I could be wrong.

[Dan Graphel @DanGraphel]

@biancoresearch Oversubscribed means demand for the shares is high. It does not show the AI businesses are profitable. A bubble breaks when the money behind the spending stops coming. That is what I watch, not the order book of one IPO.

[Dan Graphel @DanGraphel]

@solana Fitting guest. The 2019 paper that first named MEV, crypto's version of front-running, was titled "Flash Boys 2.0" after his book. Same game he described in 2014. The difference on-chain: every trade that cut the line sits on a public ledger, so the cost can be measured.

[Dan Graphel @DanGraphel]

My treasury stock rule fits in one number: 2.5.

mNAV = company value ÷ value of its coins.

$MSTR: 1.06x as of Nov. I start trimming above 2.5. Not yet.

I hold $MSTR, $BMNR and $FWDI. My own money, my own rules. Not financial advice.

Set the exit before greed does.

[Dan Graphel @DanGraphel]

@KobeissiLetter Concentration cuts both ways. Pension funds hold tech through index funds, so they buy more of whatever has already run the most. That works in an uptrend. In a drawdown, the same funds are the biggest holders at the worst time. Slow money gets hurt slowly, but it does get hurt.

[Dan Graphel @DanGraphel]

Position Log #0.

Five positions, one model portfolio. Entry, weight, exit rule for each in the image.

New: $WLD, with an exit tied to one event, the OpenAI IPO.

I don't buy the fall. I don't chase the run. I buy the quiet part in between.

I hold $LINK $MSTR $BMNR $FWDI $WLD.

[Dan Graphel @DanGraphel]

@NickTimiraos The circular financing point matters beyond tech. If AI financing is tied together, a hike hits borrowers and their lenders at the same time. That is how a rate problem turns into a credit problem. It is also why Bowman's caution may carry weight.

[Dan Graphel @DanGraphel]

@KobeissiLetter Odds are not a decision. Two Fed officials open the door to faster hikes, while the Vice Chair says the costs must be weighed. When the committee itself is split, market pricing can swing a lot before December. I'm watching how that split plays out.

[Dan Graphel @DanGraphel]

If you want the full picture, I walk through the whole chart in my first video: BTC's tops and bottoms across 2017, 2021 and 2025, then ETH, SOL and the mNAV table.
https://t.co/BOjSuJH96A

[Dan Graphel @DanGraphel]

1/
Bitcoin topped on 6 Oct 2025 at $126,210.

This week is month 13 after that top.

In the last two cycles, the bottom came about a year after the top. That's not a forecast. It's a calendar I keep next to my chart.

Cycle Journal #0.

[Dan Graphel @DanGraphel]

6/
What I'm doing: I buy a little every month from my salary and hold.

I hold $MSTR, $BMNR, $FWDI (model portfolio). My own money, my own rules. Not financial advice.

Impatience with actions, patience with results.

Full chart walk-through in my first video, link below.

[Dan Graphel @DanGraphel]

@solana @cpmontagano Sub-second settlement solves the speed part. The harder test is the weekend. When the main exchange is closed, the onchain book is the only place these shares trade, so market makers have nowhere to hedge. Weekend spreads will show if it can price a stock alone.

[Dan Graphel @DanGraphel]

@fundstrat @VitalikButerin Impatience is real, but so is the calendar. ETH has to earn each phase in order: sideways, then uptrend. Tokenization progress is steady and visible. Price often needs more time to catch up with it. Months & Years, not weeks.

[Dan Graphel @DanGraphel]

@BobLoukas Holding 50% cash through a possible Jan dip is the part most people skip. Cash is what lets you act on a plan instead of reacting to a candle. I could be wrong, but I read the cycle the same way: the long decline is behind us, and the path up may still be bumpy.

[Dan Graphel @DanGraphel]

@KobeissiLetter Worth noting: these are commitments, not debts due today. They only turn into cash needs if demand for AI keeps growing. If it stalls, the gap between promised spending and real revenue is where the stress would show up first.

[Dan Graphel @DanGraphel]

@solana @buffalu__ @jito The people who feel this most aren't users sending payments. It's market makers. When a quote settles in 150ms instead of a second, each quote carries less risk, so they can quote tighter. If it works, it shows up as narrower spreads on Solana order books.