Dan Invests

Tech management consultant with the ambition to become a capital allocator by profession. Researching in Fintech, Tokenization and AI📍🇪🇺

[Dan Invests @DanHustlsAround]

I’m a tech management consultant at a reputable global firm. One that would move markets if it makes public statements. I cannot say which one because even though all my research is my own and the posts I make here are completely based of my own research, I need to respect the policy of my firm.

Last year for the first time in my life I used leverage on stocks and directly saw how powerful of a tool this can be and at the same time extremely risky. I carefully researched and picked out 2-3 positions where I went in with high leverage. One position in $HOOD was making more than double my yearly salary. On paper. Meaning I was holding too long and almost all of the gains were gone.

This year a similar situation occurred. Again I was researching companies with high upsides and picked 2-3 levered plays. This time it was $MU making me my yearly salary. On paper. I aimed to hold until earnings, but then the market took a turn. This time at least I did not hold until the dead end, but it went down 2/3 before I finally pulled the trigger.

Again all not life changing. Yet. And while I recognize playing with leverage is highly risky, I am convinced of learning to control my mental state and make this a system which reaps high returns eventually.

The leverage part is done solely with FU money which is currently about a fourth of my total capital. A risk I happily take, and when getting more comfortable with my system I am even willing to increase.

Thanks to the X community + grok and other AIs the research part and picking high potentials have become as accessible as never before. Yet that’s only one piece of the puzzle to become a capital allocator by profession. My ambition.

I need to further sharpen my timing and mental state management skills. I know you cannot time the market. You can create a system which balances the planned exit, your mental state, and the actual exit, also based on the market situation.

I also know that we’re living in exceptional times. Markets are at all time highs, and the current returns will not grow like this forever. At some point the music stops. Or at least plays at a lower volume. And while I will not be able to time when this happens, I want to ride the wave and reach my goal until then.

Why am I writing all of this here? Well because I want to document my journey, connect with likeminded people in the community and learn a lot from all of you. Learn to become a better capital allocator every day so that one day my ambition is reality.

Thank you all for being part of my journey. I appreciate all that I’ve learned and achieved so far and the path that lies ahead.

x Dan

[Dan Invests @DanHustlsAround]

@TradexWhisperer The $MU earnings will likely knock it out of the park.

[Dan Invests @DanHustlsAround]

I‘m actually happy about the red day, had too much cash on my hand, loading up on leverage.

[Dan Invests @DanHustlsAround]

$MU and $MRVL keep going down pls so I can add more!

[Dan Invests @DanHustlsAround]

Additon: I also invest in stocks and ETFs when I’ve built up high conviction based on my research. However, I don’t expect that to get me to my ambition near / mid-term. Hence, the FU money leverage approach.

[Dan Invests @DanHustlsAround]

I’m a tech management consultant at a reputable global firm. One that would move markets if it makes public statements. I cannot say which one because even though all my research is my own and the posts I make here are completely based of my own research, I need to respect the policy of my firm.

Last year for the first time in my life I used leverage on stocks and directly saw how powerful of a tool this can be and at the same time extremely risky. I carefully researched and picked out 2-3 positions where I went in with high leverage. One position in $HOOD was making more than double my yearly salary. On paper. Meaning I was holding too long and almost all of the gains were gone.

This year a similar situation occurred. Again I was researching companies with high upsides and picked 2-3 levered plays. This time it was $MU making me my yearly salary. On paper. I aimed to hold until earnings, but then the market took a turn. This time at least I did not hold until the dead end, but it went down 2/3 before I finally pulled the trigger.

Again all not life changing. Yet. And while I recognize playing with leverage is highly risky, I am convinced of learning to control my mental state and make this a system which reaps high returns eventually.

The leverage part is done solely with FU money which is currently about a fourth of my total capital. A risk I happily take, and when getting more comfortable with my system I am even willing to increase.

Thanks to the X community + grok and other AIs the research part and picking high potentials have become as accessible as never before. Yet that’s only one piece of the puzzle to become a capital allocator by profession. My ambition.

I need to further sharpen my timing and mental state management skills. I know you cannot time the market. You can create a system which balances the planned exit, your mental state, and the actual exit, also based on the market situation.

I also know that we’re living in exceptional times. Markets are at all time highs, and the current returns will not grow like this forever. At some point the music stops. Or at least plays at a lower volume. And while I will not be able to time when this happens, I want to ride the wave and reach my goal until then.

Why am I writing all of this here? Well because I want to document my journey, connect with likeminded people in the community and learn a lot from all of you. Learn to become a better capital allocator every day so that one day my ambition is reality.

Thank you all for being part of my journey. I appreciate all that I’ve learned and achieved so far and the path that lies ahead.

x Dan

[Dan Invests @DanHustlsAround]

Big news for Intel packaging tech just dropped and it is quietly bullish for AGC Inc.

Google has reportedly ordered Intel to package over 3 million TPUs with plans scaling above 6 million in 2027 2028. NVIDIA is also testing Intel EMIB advanced packaging for its next gen Feynman GPU and evaluating the 18A node.

This is huge validation for Intel in the AI chiplet era.

For AGC Inc? Very positive indirectly.
Intel is pushing glass core substrates hard as the superior tech for next gen high performance packaging. Flatter, more reliable, and enabling much finer interconnects. AGC is a leading supplier in this exact area.
https://t.co/Zga2Wqfdja

As Intel wins major AI customers and ramps glass based packaging, demand for AGC specialized glass substrates should rise. Long term tailwind for their electronics materials business as the AI packaging boom accelerates.

Not immediate revenue but a strong structural positive.

[Jukan @jukan05]

The information: Google has placed an order with Intel to package more than 3 million TPUs. Across 2027 and 2028, Google is expected to produce more than 6 million TPUs using Intel’s packaging technology.

[Dan Invests @DanHustlsAround]

Getting confident again to get into leverage on $MU and keep holding my call options on $DRAM.

[Jukan @jukan05]

Jensen Huang: “Demand is enormous. From wafers to silicon photonics and cable connectors, everything across the entire industry supply chain is in short supply.”

[Dan Invests @DanHustlsAround]

Might have to get back into $MU leverage again when German markets open, it all points into a direction of earnings which will be above expectations.

[Jukan @jukan05]

TrendForce has revised up its 2Q26 server DRAM contract price forecast to +50–55% QoQ, from its previous forecast of +45–50%.

$DRAM $MU

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

I think my personal style of investing is a bit different, just some reflection:

It's inherently discretionary, based on stuff markets don't know yet. And a culmination of life experiences?

If you look at $AXTI, $RPI, $SIVE, $IQE and others.

Lot of it is guessing on unstructured relationships then seeing if it's right or not down the line.

$RPI is the perfect example:

1. Nobody really thought of Raspberry Pis for AI growth. Mainly people bought one or two just for class + education + hobbyist.
2. After OpenClaw, just noticed all my friends and people just buying Apple Mac Minis / RPIs for AI applications.
3. Found validation of that trend online with lot of people sharing video tutorials on AI orchestration with RPI.
4. AI was their ideal perfect growth vector, did some modeling, and thought it was compelling.

Earnings comes out and I was right.

Everyone in media was calling it a meme stock because there's nothing online that shows revenue growth from AI (was 14% forecasted revenue growth, turned out to be 58%, my projection was around 55%).

So it was a mix of guessing next industry trend (AI using lightweight hardware instead of GPU clusters), real life trends, then revenue forecasting off my guess.

For stuff like $AXTI:

1. Everyone called it a joke when I bought at ~$12. LLMs would hallucinate and say "hyperscalers/govs would have known about this by now and fixed this vulnerability with InP substrates"
2. Or would conflate very nuanced parts of InP substrate stack, where there's multiple different chokepoints in upstream processing.
3. So part of this was just discretionary based on what I've seen over InP substrate breakdowns, industry trends, etc.
4. Then also guessing the major supercycle was photonics (this was before everyone caught onto $LITE, and others). Or before you saw the $141B TAM projections from GS.
5. AXT owned 40% of InP supply chain, without them the supply chain just gets cripped).
6. All the "analysts" were forecasting steady InP substrate growth, few hundred million TAM, etc. or export controls.
7. Everyone kept trying to say $AXTI was overvalued based on TAM estimates. But if it's a few hundred million TAM you just think that's a joke and go into game theory over allocations.
8. Then I just had to guess, how much would this be worth if it were a NAND style bottleneck, what MC could it reach based on control, how much would hyperscalers price it as, etc.

A lot of the current research outputs from Goldman Sachs, or earnings reports from the Epiwafer companies, were confirmed after I published my piece on AXT. If you did research back then, lot of the same material /framing wouldn't have come up.

With stuff like $XFAB as you're seeing now, a lot of it is just pure guessing:

1. Not really any CPO materials, how much their MTP process makes in revenue, etc. Everyone online keeps saying they're not a photonics player.
2. But if you go through ASE docs or Gov websites, they all kinda cite XFAB as a major emerging player here.
3. $NVDA also evaluating them right now (maybe it's successful who knows).
4. No clear revenue around this area because their main silicon photonics process is still precommercial, but if you guess it's trying to create a EU supply chain to compete with $TSEM, once pre-commercial shifts to commercial, maybe similar but less volume contracts?
5. Then just seeing updates over the next few months to see if anything confirms this thesis guess.

_

I think a lot of information discovery still can be done with LLMs I'm seeing online. But it's also really hard to make a bunch of unstructured inferences based on unrelated material or even just trends you're seeing in real life.

So probably better to just do what's standard, eg. do valuation forecasting based on current numbers

Stuff like $AAOI, if they're projecting $471m/M h1 2027 and you see MC at $12B, probably undervalued might be a good idea to go long for next years.

Stuff like Samsung Electronics is easier, see what people are modeling for operating profits for 2027, 2028 then just seeing if it's undervalued or not at current levels.

Maybe something harder is $JBL. I haven't really seen any great volume numbers around 1.6T LRO, but you can just make a guess on how popular that might be then project how that might impact current MCs.

Or picking just good names everyone kinda agrees like $TSM, $INTC, $MRVL is also solid.

So a lot of things is just building up your life skills then applying that to markets. I don't think it's that can be taught with courses and stuff.

Of course, much of what I'm doing is just high conviction inference based on unconnected parts. Could always be wrong.

[Dan Invests @DanHustlsAround]

@aleabitoreddit Word!

[Dan Invests @DanHustlsAround]

I’m thinking of what to make of Monday, should I get back again levered into $MU? $GOOG or $MRVL?

Or play the $XFAB card? On the latter I’m really intrigued but until now didn’t find the data to back up this thesis.

[Dan Invests @DanHustlsAround]

However, $XFAB seems interesting, they get funding from the commission too (non disclosed), but I’m struggling to find data that backs up the growth thesis, wonder where you got your alpha insights from @aleabitoreddit ?

[Dan Invests @DanHustlsAround]

I read through the proposal of the @EU_Commission for the Chips Act 2.0. it’s a great piece of research. A lot of interesting insights on market shares of and funding being released e.g. on photonics. It reconfirmed …

https://t.co/j40xCyDbIV

[Dan Invests @DanHustlsAround]

Other than that all other players that I identified in the proposal didn’t seem too compelling anymore since these names moved up a lot thanks to some great research of @aleabitoreddit and other upfront.

[Dan Invests @DanHustlsAround]

My conviction on AGC Inc. while even though Nittobo is the bigger player in TGV, AGC has higher upside because they price based on supply / demand, unlike Nittobo.

[Dan Invests @DanHustlsAround]

I need to get better in timing de-leveraging, to become a capital allocator by profession.

[Dan Invests @DanHustlsAround]

@Vaelis_X Nittobo is the one supplier with the highest market share in TGV, but other players like AGC are also getting into the game. The latter being an epic supplier of Inter. AGC is my favorite bet on EUV masks and TGV.

[Dan Invests @DanHustlsAround]

@Vaelis_X Have you checked AGC Inc yet for EUV masks, has a similar market share and adjusts pricing based on supply / demand, unlike Nittobo.

[Dan Invests @DanHustlsAround]

I never lost more in a single day than today. Thinking whether I should just take some gains before these further diminish, yet wouldn’t that be emotional? Thesis hasn’t changed, but maybe I should get out of my leverage.