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[Matt @Mattplayerprops]

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Natisha Hiedeman over 14.5 points

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Posted hours early in Discord. Analysis⤵️
Natisha Hiedeman is in a great buy low spot tonight against the Sky, a favorable matchup at home. Chicago has not been a good defense overall they rank below average giving up 89.9 ppg (5th most in WNBA).

Hiedeman is coming off of 2 poor games in a row against NY and POR, they rank 4th and 2nd in pick & roll handler defense this season. The Fire specifically trap on ballplayers, so it wasn't all that shocking that Natisha struggled.

This spot vs CHI is much better, the Sky rank 9th of 15 teams in pick & roll handler defense, this is her most dominant scoring playtype. They are also a below average Transition defense, Hiedeman also thrives in this area.

I like the this game to have a nice pace and be higher scoring. Sky play at the 2nd fastest pace in WNBA, the Storm are 7th but that's up to 3rd in their last 10 games. We have a solid 178.5 game total and it should he very competitive with a 1.5 point spread, a great game environment.

This line was routinely closing at 15.5/16.5 pts for Hiedeman, now we get a buy low opportunity just due to low scoring games in tougher matchups and slower paced teams.

She often sees low to mid 30's mins in close games. With 28+ mins and Malonga IN vs non top 5 pick & roll ball handler defenses, Natisha averages 18.9 ppg going over this line in 9/10 games.

There is also more upside for this play given the fact Flau'jae, Ezi, and Samuelson are questionable. Flau'jae rolled her ankle bad last game and given SEA rough record, they could opt to just be cautious.

That would be a nice boost considering Hiedeman has a 23.1 USG with Flau'jae on the court compared to a 26.5 USG with her off the court.

At home with 28+ mins when SEA avoids losing by more than 10 pts (1.5 pt spread), Hiedeman avg 18.8 ppg going over in 9/12. 3 misses vs top 5 PnR handler defenses. Sky are 9th of 15 teams in PnR handler defense.

Widely available on DFS sites and sportsbooks. Best line currently -110 on Hard Rock.
#WNBA #Gambling𝕏

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Happy with most of the reads here. Taj and Mabrey were very strong ones, sweat free. Webb ends with 7 hits, I knew he would have a very long leash here and that came to fruition. Got some luck on our side with Grayson exiting early. He was pulled with 0 ER in 3rd inning, bullpen came in and almost blew it but we escaped!

Appreciate all of those who show the support and positive vibes as always. We keep pushing forward, always focusing on the long run but a nice start to the mid summer months. We had grwat success this time of year last season, pushing for the same. Feeling good with the value we've gotten for both MLB+WNBA. Let's keep it rolling now 🚀

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