Daniellie Grey

Thinking Life barefoot. Life, Geopolitics - Tech- Engineering - Energy & Sports" To live is the rarest thing in the world. Most people exist" -

[Daniellie Grey @DanielieGrey]

Don't admire the flying bird before you know the pain of flapping.

[Daniellie Grey @DanielieGrey]

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[Russian Oil & Gas Monitor @RusOilGasExpert]

The waiver on Russian crude? It will definitely have a time limit, but I could see it getting 1-2 more months. No oil has left the Persian Gulf just yet. It will take months for the global tanker fleet to get back into a regular delivery schedule, and the refill of various storage facilities and Strategic Petroleum Reserves will take more months. In other words, every barrel will be needed for a while.

[Kyle Chan @kyleichan]

The irony is China is being cited as a key factor on both sides of the debate:

These export controls are good because they keep advanced American AI models out of China’s hands.

These export controls are bad because they slow down the US in the AI race with China.

[JH @CRUDEOIL231]

Really good take. Must read.

[Daniellie Grey @DanielieGrey]

@TheNavroopSingh The question I have how will foreign government negotiate or build strategic reserves or hedge moving forward. Delhi must show strategic strength for its own sake moving forward

[Daniellie Grey @DanielieGrey]

@anasalhajji Spot on. Peace and blessings. Q: when can we expect the next space post MOU signing among no interruptions?

[Anas Alhajji @anasalhajji]

أحد أكبر خبراء الإعلام النفطي في العالم يثمن دور أوبك في دورها الإعلامي، خاصة في وسائل التواصل الاجتماعي... 👇👇👇👇

[Navroop Singh @TheNavroopSingh]

Absolutely 💯

[Daniellie Grey @DanielieGrey]

This is going to be an interesting watch considering the news of the Iran deal or MOU. @RusOilGasExpert I've seen variance of analysis stating price levels are to remain elevated. What are your thoughts on revisiting the waiver if Iranian oil now floods to market. In conjunction with crude quality

[Russian Oil & Gas Monitor @RusOilGasExpert]

➡️ Very interesting. We thought that India, a price-sensitive buyer, only took Russian oil for the deep price discounts, and that the US, knowing that crude had to be in market somewhere, only grudgingly gave its tacit approval.
➡️ The takeaway: US sanctions waivers for "on-the-water" Russian oil expire in a few days. The first two times the expiry date arrived, the State Department made a show of letting them lapse, only to renew them with 48 hours. If the US was really that pragmatic from 2022 (admittedly under a different administration), then the market should only price in a small chance of the waivers being allowed to fully lapse while the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
#oott #Russia #India

[Russian Oil & Gas Monitor @RusOilGasExpert]

➡️ There are a lot of interesting details in this article. Here are 3:
1⃣ Key takeaway is in the title "Russian seaborne crude exports show little signs of slowing". We agree, and note refined product exports were more robust than we expected, given everything.
2⃣ "Russian seaborne diesel exports fell to 740kbd, 26% lower y/y", o/w ~110kbd is due to "close to no diesel cargoes exported from Tuapse in May" after repeated strikes in late April. It is Russian diesel exports that should concern barrel counters. Even reduced, 740kbd is still a lot of supply at risk as drone strikes continue, and as the government mulls a diesel export ban.
3⃣ "Six refineries attacked in May went into full outage, reflecting a total of 1.5mbd of CDU capacity affected." We come up with a slightly different sum, and including Tuapse (which went offline in April), the total was 1.65mmbpd. However, a number of these plants have subsequently restarted, according to data from Seala.
#oott #Russia

[Russian Oil & Gas Monitor @RusOilGasExpert]

➡️ We could be mistaken, but we think pipeline pump stations are not easy targets.
➡️ This is the latest of a number of attacks on Russian pumping stations. However, we have no reliable information if there was any reduction in volumes for any meaningful period of time, as such information is tightly held.
➡️ In contrast, the near-nightly attacks on refineries has contributed to regional shortages, falling fuel volumes traded on St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIMEX), bans on the export of gasoline and jet fuel, and reports the government is considering a ban on diesel exports.
#oott #Russia

[Qasem Al-Ali @AlaliQasem]

“Open to all” politically ≠ “oil flowing” physically. Three massive operational gaps stand between the announcement and normalized flow:

•Mine clearance in the Strait: ~6 months
•Stranded vessels exiting and repositioning to reload: 2-3 months
•Regional production ramping back to pre-war levels: ~3 months

[Eric 𝕏 @WorldStrategist]

What they are missing is that open source will stay for the rest of the world except for the US :)

And China will likely take the lead in that.

With France catching up at some point probably

[Eric 𝕏 @WorldStrategist]

Some People are gullible

[Daniellie Grey @DanielieGrey]

@FinEconGlobal Call me a skeptic, but you don't move that many assets and boots in the region to then sign a concept of a deal. Their either delaying to mow the lawn or the Iranians dumb enough to think Uncle Sam admits defeat.

[Daniellie Grey @DanielieGrey]

@FinEconGlobal Peace is not profitable for these folks and anyone thinking it's much lived , I have a bridge to sell you. To much business too many interests.

[Anas Alhajji @anasalhajji]

⭕️Trump threw the Venezuelan opposition under the bus

⭕️Trump threw the Iranian opposition under the bus

⭕️Trump threw oil call options holders under the bus

[Daniellie Grey @DanielieGrey]

@HNadim87 Define Win?

[Daniellie Grey @DanielieGrey]

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[Giovanni Staunovo🛢 @staunovo]

Americans should expect elevated oil and gas prices through late summer even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, Rapidan Energy President Bob McNally said today.

“The shock absorbers that the global oil market has benefited from in March and April and May are starting to wear off,” he warned during an appearance on ABC News’ “This Week.” https://t.co/1n9MJr7d9A

[Anas Alhajji @anasalhajji]

A must-watch. Here's why: Some people are highlighting the contradictory statements as a sign of no deal. Well… listen to this👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼

[Anas Alhajji @anasalhajji]

This is from january 29.... 🔥🔥