DannyDyer

Community Leader @Polyfactual

[DannyDyer @DannyDyerBase]

Closed beta test for @factsdottrade is starting this week, and all I can think of is how many users will be happy they waited for public release.

@polyfactual is always cooking.

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

Prediction markets are getting their own hedge funds.

This Friday at 6 PM EST we're joined by @polyfund.

They're building vault infrastructure that lets anyone get exposure to top traders like @holy_moses7 and @MEPPonPM

Don't want to miss, live on X.

[DannyDyer @DannyDyerBase]

@polyfactual @KairosTradeX @a16zcrypto @GenevaTrading Looking forward to this one!

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

Our next stream we'll be joined by @KairosTradeX. Thursday, 5pm EST on X.

Kairos is building some of the best trading infra in the space.

Backed by big names like @a16zcrypto and @GenevaTrading

With Kairos public launch is fast approaching. You won't want to miss this!

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

How @robinmarketsxyz raised their first $400K from top crypto VCs.

@0xFudrick shares:

> What actually works
> What doesn't
> Valuable takeaways

This is gold for prediction market builders and founders.

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

How High Will Inflation Get in 2026?

＞Global bond markets sold off sharply last week.

＞30-year US Treasuries spiked as high as 5.20% last week - the highest level in nearly 20 years.

＞Long-term yields in the UK and Japan also hit multi-year highs.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces an extremely tough challenge.

Inflation is already accelerating:

- April CPI +3.8% YoY (energy +17.9% due to Iran conflict)
- Cleveland Fed May nowcast - already 4.18%

Trump said yesterday that rates will be cut "very quickly"

Economists are warning in unison: easy policy and major energy shock - repeat of the 1970s

Current Polymarket odds:

＞Above 4%: 98%
＞Above 4.5%: 75%
＞Above 5%: 36%

Many economists and traders see significant upside risk.

Which bucket are you on?

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

TODAY: We’re going LIVE on X with @lex_node, founder of @MetaLeX_Labs

We'll be discussing ACE, a new vehicle in the ICM space that gives token holders exposure to real equity in the company behind the token.

Join us at 4:30 PM ET.

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

Polymarket figured out something powerful:

News + engagement + financial incentives = one of the most addictive information primitives on the internet.

Great conversation with the founders of @PolyFundr.

[DannyDyer @DannyDyerBase]

@polyfactual Could be yuge. 👀

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

https://t.co/Y5cmbDPpcG

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

“Many prop traders print in simulation, then underperform the moment they know they’re trading live capital.”

Our convo with @FundingPredicts on why switching traders between A-book & B-book can actually hurt performance.

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

Will the Fed Cut Rates Even Once in 2026?

57.8% of traders say no - zero rate cuts for the entire year.

Latest Wall Street forecasts:

＞Goldman Sachs just pushed their forecast for the first cut to December 2026
＞Bank of America removed all cuts for 2026 - now expects them only in H2 2027

The core problem: stubborn inflation.

＞Core PCE is stuck near 3% (Fed target: 2%).
＞The Fed has held the rate at 3.50-3.75% for several meetings straight.

On May 15 the Fed Chair position changes:
Jerome Powell's term ends and Kevin Warsh steps in as Chair.

But even Paul Tudor Jones was blunt:
"No chance" Warsh starts cutting rates. He might even have to raise them.

Your thoughts?

＞0 cuts all year?
＞Or 1-2 under the new Chair?

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

🚨Fresh Wallets Predicting YES on "Hormuz Back to Normal by May 15"

But Can It Really Happen?

68 days into the crisis. The Strait is still basically paralyzed.

Current Situation:

＞Last 24 hours - only 2 vessels (3.3% of normal)
＞7-day moving average - stuck between 10-15 transits

Fresh Iran move:
Tehran launched the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority"

To pass now you must:

＞email for permission
＞pay fees in Iranian rials
＞use only "Persian Gulf" terminology
＞follow IRGC corridors

Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and other majors are still refusing to play by these new rules.

Market Rules:
YES = 7-day MA on IMF Portwatch hits ≥60 vessels/day at least once before May 15

Jumping from 5% to full normal in 8 days is physically, logistically and politically impossible.

Even if a ceasefire is announced tomorrow, demining, insurance and shipowner confidence will take months.

When do YOU think normal traffic actually returns?

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

JUST IN: Today we're launching Factscan🚨

https://t.co/ltXeZPFq4V
Track political scandals in real time:

> Corruption heatmaps (by country)
> Political finance flows
> Court filings, charges, citations
> Reddit leaks & rumors
> AI-generated profiles of key figures
> Linked Polymarket events

Just in time for election season. Product is still in early testing phase, but people are welcome to try it.

Of course, feedback is welcome. Enjoy!

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

"This could be one of the most volatile markets this week” from our talk with @prophet_notes

Trump China visit (May 15):

> US aircraft spotted in Beijing
> Market pricing in 90% chance
> But rising global tensions could derail it fast

We’ve already seen this meeting get pushed once…
Don’t assume it’s a lock.

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

LIVE with @prophet_notes, who runs the top Prediction Market Newsletter https://t.co/lUihLr71cG

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

TODAY: We're going LIVE on X at 6pm EST with @FundingPredicts, @BagCalls & @drippy_eth.

Funding Predicts is the leading prop firm for prediction markets, funding traders with up to $100,000 after passing evaluation.

We’ll break down:
→ How to start trading with them
→ The rise of PM prop firms
→ And much more

Don’t miss it!

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

https://t.co/7VWZcVBvZC

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

TOMORROW: Going LIVE with @prophet_notes at 10AM EST.

Prophet runs the largest Substack in prediction markets, followed by major traders and protocols.

We’ll break down the latest geopolitical markets, Iran, oil, and where odds may be mispriced.

[Polyfactual @polyfactual]

NEW round of U.S.–Iran peace talks is back on the table for Thursday.

Factsbase flagged earlier that the IEA warns the Strait could impact markets within days.

Meanwhile, concerns remain over potential U.S. naval vulnerabilities in the region.

Odds on the Iran US war ending by April are at 62%

[ionicXBT @theionicXBT]

I told you

when I say something

I mean it

if you’re not listening

that’s on you