Danilift

need moar liquidity can I hav urs

[Danilift @Danolift]

@aymane_eth 😭😭😭

[marintrades @marintrades]

bitcoin:native Morning Prep Oct 7th Wednesday

Overnight we flushed HARD from 85.6k into 83.5k - 2.4% range expansion.

On the footie you can see: OI down $222M CVD −168M, and around $5.8M in longs liquidated against only about $1k in shorts.

This was margin driven exits and liquidations.
The only real initiative on the way down was one large short opened around 84.6k, which is now the session POC and current resistance you wanna play off of.

We stopped at 83.52k, front ran both previous weeks naked POC and vPOC rather than trading into them. Two nPOCs have been tested on the way down, and two are still left unmitigated below.

Since the low price has recovered 1.4% with OI up $194M and CVD up only 67M - new longs are opening in a nice manner and volume is picking up, but the bounce is positioning mostly.
On the aggregate side, OI is back at +1.15σ on the 7.5D Z score while perp CVD has barely recovered - it's pretty obvious that fresh leverage is building under a lower high.

Structurally speaking we lost the monthly VWAP which also sits at the range VAH.
A rotation back toward it is likely because that flow just needs to be repriced sooner or later but for shorts the play is pretty simple: you don't want to see price get back past the actual VWAP , along the same lines, the z score topping candles from the flush need to hold. The worst outcome for the bearish case is those candles getting fully repriced and closed above.

The play I'm watching is a rejection from the LVN above. If price can't build value inside that LVN, the only logical destination is the unmitigated POCs below, where people have shown they're willing to transact. We're already spending time lower - we just need more time to see proper session volume behaviour at these important levels.

@backquant Terminal Analysis
Funding has reset to 0.07 bps ( Z -1.28σ ), so theres no crowded long to squeeze, and DVOL has bled back to 35.8% after the flush spike.
Net GEX is long at +$31.6M, ( dealers sell rips and buy dips ), and the regime is mean reverting.
The 0DTE put wall is 83.6k which lines up with the monthly and quarterly open.
The 0DTE call wall is 84.8k.
Negative gamma sits at 84.5 to 84.75k right around where that large short was opened so acceptance above it could force a squeeze into 85.2 to about 85.3k and the monthly VWAP basically.

Options flow: 150 contracts of 84k Oct 16 puts were bought for near term protection.

Levels for me:
85.29k: monthly VWAP and range VAH, short invalidation
85.0 to 85.2k: LVN and liquidity band
84.6k: session POC, largest short opened
84.8k: 0DTE call wall
84.0k: gamma pin and dVAL
83.6k: 0DTE put wall, monthly and quarterly open
83.5k: weekly low, front run of prior nPOC/vPOC
82.6k: London ATR low

El Plan: I'm looking for a rejection from 84.6 to 85.0k and then failure to build value in the LVN targets 83.6k and then the unmitigated POCs below.
On the contrary acceptance above 85.29k with the flush candles repriced invalidates the idea and I'd close my charts until NY AM.

Verdict/TLDR
Whoever controls 84.6k likely controls the day.

[Danilift @Danolift]

@olivercharts 😭😭😭

[Danilift @Danolift]

@skepticalxbt Ngl that spot cvd is meeeeeeeee

[Danilift @Danolift]

@marintrades why did i drink my coffee without a marin outlook today

[Danilift @Danolift]

@StevenErtelt @bit0ii @skepticalxbt @olivercharts

[goyim @aymane_eth]

how to spot a trapped trader

short in this case

- negative delta
- OI increase
- candle closing above it

[Danilift @Danolift]

@marintrades @bit0ii wet dream

[Danilift @Danolift]

@ZEALZdotfun @stripe GZEAL

am uk based but cant get a quote, wont let me switch currency either, just goes to select currency and the only option is usd

[Piv○t @Pivot922]

To my followers

If you have a moment to take out sometime to help one of my GC members with his cancer treatment I would highly appreciate it

Any amount you can give would help him

Much appreciated for the followers who do send some monies

I am not requesting from my followers something I have not done already myself

I hope the trust I have built on this app can help my fellow GC member out

We flash wild PNL's on this app and I would hope a slither of that can go to a gud cause

[Danilift @Danolift]

@aymane_eth @swingsonly could also cut through the sps but front run MO or just run from here

big week ig

[Danilift @Danolift]

@aymane_eth @swingsonly some fresh oi to test conviction if we do drop

cb seems sell too tho binance spot is bid, beracles on binance perps so expect fuckery

[Danilift @Danolift]

@fraxyusd @Pivot922 I hate you

[Danilift @Danolift]

@Pivot922 @fraxyusd

[Danilift @Danolift]

@gxexe_ @AgentChud

[JACKIS @i_am_jackis]

A 92,5% probability of a rate hike today. The last time there was a >90% probability on the day of the decision and the FED kept rates unchanged was in 2007

Additionally, there is now about 1% basis point hikes projected in less than a year (looking at the yield & oil market likely to be more)

Each of the past four projected hiking seasons resulted in an SPX bear market or pro-longed correction of -27% or more

The yield & oil market has to top immediately in order to revert this trajectory.

[Danilift @Danolift]

@skepticalxbt How do I become friends with Bit0i

[Danilift @Danolift]

@bit0ii thank you.