After the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell in Congress, U.S. stocks began to celebrate the interest rate cut in September, breaking 5,600 points for the first time in S&P's history. The massive inflation data released tonight is expected to add another fire to this optimism.
On Wall Street, almost every analyst expects that the U.S. CPI will rise more moderately in June and inflationary pressures will continue to ease. If the CPI data meets or is lower than expected, the possibility of the Federal Reserve starting an interest rate cut cycle in September will be greatly increased. The U.S. Department of Labor will release the CPI data for June. According to the market consensus:
In June, the year-on-year increase of the overall CPI is expected to fall from 3.3% in May to 3.1% (the forecast range of 3.0-3.3% by 70 analysts), the lowest in five months; it rose 0.1% month-on-month, slightly up from the previous value of 0% (the forecast range is 0.0-0.2%).
The year-on-year increase of core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy) is expected to be the same as 3.4% in May (the forecast range is between 3.3-3.5%); a month-on-month increase of 0.2% (the forecast range is 0.1-0.3%), which is the same as in May, and is expected to be the smallest consecutive two since August next year. Monthly increase In general, Wall Street's expectations for inflation data in June are highly consistent. Of the 70 analysts surveyed by the media, 55 expected the core CPI to increase by 0.2% month-on-month, and only a few predicted 0.3% or 0.1%. Bank of America said that it is expected that "another weak inflation report" will give the Federal Reserve more confidence that inflation is on the right downward track, although the base effect may make it difficult for the annual rate to show much progress.
If the CPI meets our expectations, we expect that the September meeting will still be very active in the eyes of the market. Macroeconomic data has weakened significantly, and the macroeconomic surprise index has been at the lowest level since January 2016, which should drive inflation to cool down and re-synchronize macroeconomic and inflation.
Among the major investment banks, Goldman Sachs is relatively conservative about the rate of slowing inflation, and the overall and core CPI growth expectations are slightly higher than the general expectations of the market. Goldman Sachs emphasizes three key trends of inflation:
Second-hand car prices continue to fall with the auction price, and are expected to fall by 1.6% year-on-year in June. Now the auction price of used cars has fallen by 28% from the peak, while the price of used cars in CPI has fallen by 16%, indicating that there is room for further decline in the price of used cars in this report.
Car insurance prices will continue to rise, but the growth rate is lower than earlier this year. Goldman Sachs predicts that the auto insurance part will grow by 0.5%, compared with an average increase of 1.3% so far in 2024.
Housing inflation, which accounts for one-third of the CPI statistics, is expected to slow down compared with the previous month, and the gap between new leases and lease renewals is narrowing. Goldman Sachs predicts that rents will increase by 0.36% and OER will increase by 0.39% in June); by December 2024, overall housing inflation will increase by about 0.34% per month, and rent and OER will increase by 0.25% and 0.37% respectively.
How high can stocks go in 2024?
Last week, $GS boosted its year-end target from 5,100 to 5,200. Today, UBS boosted its target to 5,400, up from a prior call of 5,100. Read what's behind these bullish outlooks on https://t.co/xpAujlllJF
Tesla's decision to resume operations at Giga Berlin reflects its ability to navigate supply chain disruptions effectively. BUT concerns about slowing global EV demand underscore the need for strategic adaptation in the competitive automotive market
$TSLA confirmed this week it will restart operations at Giga Berlin following a production halt due to ongoing Houthi militia attacks on component suppliers using Red Sea transport routes. https://t.co/TUg7bZYdpI
It's interesting to see Microsoft's potential rise in market cap, driven in part by its involvement in the AI boom and backing of OpenAI. Meanwhile, Apple faces challenges with concerns about iPhone sales. The dynamics of tech companies' market positions can be quite dynamic. 📈
It's concerning that the @SECGov X account was compromised, leading to an unauthorized post. The SEC's stance on the approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded products remains unchanged – not approved for listing and trading.
The @SECGov X account was compromised, and an unauthorized post was posted. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of spot bitcoin exchange-traded products.
Tesla is recalling nearly all of the vehicles it sold in the U.S., more than 2 million across its model lineup. The recall covers models Y, S, 3 and X produced between Oct. 5, 2012, and Dec. 7 of this year. https://t.co/PouXv9Fg3q
BREAKING: Bitcoin prices hit $43,000 for the first time since April 2022, up 180% since November 2022.
Over the last year Bitcoin has added a massive $470 BILLION of market cap.
The entire crypto market has added $750 billion of market cap since November 2022.
Bitcoin is now up ~45% in 6 weeks since speculation of Bitcoin ETF approvals began.
What a run for an industry with an unprecedented number of setbacks.
Is this the most resilient market of all time?
i love openai, and everything i’ve done over the past few days has been in service of keeping this team and its mission together. when i decided to join msft on sun evening, it was clear that was the best path for me and the team. with the new board and w satya’s support, i’m looking forward to returning to openai, and building on our strong partnership with msft.
BREAKING: Donald Trump's historic testimony devolves into an utter disaster as Judge Arthur Engoron repeatedly trashes him for his nonstop bad behavior — and Trump completely falls apart.
This is a complete mess and it's GLORIOUS.
True to pathetic form, the disgraced ex-president started off by whining that the New York attorney general and U.S. attorneys are "all haters."
As he always does, Trump then went on to ramble ceaselessly and senselessly while responding to straightforward questions so that the judge had to call him out for it.
"Some of your answers have not been in response to the question. I would like to move this along," said Engoron.
Trump went on to whine even more, claiming that Judge Engoron will inevitably "rule against me because he will always rule against me."
"You can attack me all you want, but just answer the question," said Engoron.
Trump attacked the entire court as well, taking issue with Judge Engoron's fraud ruling that came before the trial began.
"He called me a fraud and he didn’t know anything about me," said Trump.
“Read my opinion perhaps or for the first time,” the judge responded.
"I think it’s fraudulent, the decision. The fraud is on the court, not on me," said Trump.
Trump's remarks then went so far off the map that Engoron had to address his attorneys directly—
"This is not a political rally," he said. "Maybe you need to have a talk with him right now."
"In addition to the answers being non responsive, they're repetitive. We don't have time to waste. We have one day with this witness," the judge added."
Things then devolved even further...
"I beseech you to control him if you can," the judge said to Trump's attorneys at one point. "If you can't, I will. I will I excuse him and draw every negative inference that I can."
Enough is enough. Donald Trump clearly does not respect our legal system and thinks that he is above the law. It's time for the judge to slap him with every punishment in the book.
Please retweet and ❤️ to demand that Trump be punished for his behavior — and consider joining the growing exodus to Tribel, a “woke” new Twitter competitor that is exploding in popularity because it banned Trump for life and because Elon Musk banned Tribel’s Twitter account — but he forgot to ban this link to download the new Tribel app: https://t.co/HnJzSKjCwX
BREAKING: FOX News gets devastating news as the FCC(Federal Communications Commission) announces that it’s launching the preliminary process of stripping FOX News of its broadcasting license in Philadelphia over its pushing of Trump’s Big Lie.
But it gets WORSE for FOX News…
It all started last July when media reform activists petitioned the FCC to revoke Fox News’ local broadcast license in Philadelphia over its rampant election fraud propaganda, which is a clear violation of the “character clause” embedded in the Communications Act that the FCC uses to determine if a network should earn and maintain its broadcasting license.
Today, the FCC announced that it is moving forward with its investigation by opening up an “evidentiary hearing” in which citizens and advocacy groups can comment publicly and provide evidence of FOX News’ election lies.
FOX News and its army of lawyers adamantly opposed the hearing, but the FCC took the “rare step” of deciding to move forward with it, sending FOX News’ lawyers spiraling into a frenzy.
To make matters worse for FOX News, experts say that if Philadelphia activists are able to get FOX News pulled from the air, it could “be replicable” in other cities and markets all across America.
This could be the beginning of the end of FOX “News” as we know it…
Please retweet and ❤️ if you think that FOX News MUST lose its broadcasting license and be pulled from the airwaves — and consider joining the growing exodus to Tribel, a woke new Twitter competitor I launched that banned Trump for life and is exploding in popularity because Elon Musk banned Tribel’s Twitter account — but he forgot to ban this link to download the new Tribel app: https://t.co/0c9FDbByU8
More homebuyers are turning to adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, as the rate on the most popular fixed-rate home loan remains at 23-year highs.
The volume of ARM applications jumped 15% last week from the previous one. https://t.co/E9vRMcE5Fq
Oct 4th they're gonna ring every phone, computer, tv and radio with a "special sound" nationwide for 30 minutes. Don't know about you, but I don't like it one bit.
https://t.co/sPzqEBqylh
MAJOR victory today 🎉
In 2021, we proposed the Climate Corps and launched a massive inside-outside organizing effort to win it.
Today, the American Climate Corps has finally come true.
Thank you to @POTUS and the countless communities and organizers who made this a reality💪🏽