signs of bottom being in:
โข price stops going down on bad news (saylor selling millions into 58-60k & $BTC printing higher lows)
โข crypto native mobile apps starting to pickup real traction (pumpfun revenue up 20% week-over-week, fomo 100k+ users in a week)
โข institutional interest coming back (robinhood chain, PTJ publicly bullish BTC)
โข interest across social media trending again (kimchi 30M view post on @X, insentos tik tok video trends, @blknoiz06 +200k followers this month)
future confirmation of beginning of bull market trends
โข on-chain coins printing a subsequent higher high after first high volume top
โข holder count on most popular on-chain coins steadily increasing
โข mainstream news cycle starts to pickup again
โข devs experimenting on-chain w/ novel mechanisms
โข airdrops from successful protocols as stimulus packages for trenches
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which coins do you think will lead the next bull market?
last week was capitulation bottom on ai names/memory if not *very* close & mag7 very strong off back of strong $AMZN earnings pushing it into all time highs
biggest concern for crypto specifically was continued stocks weakness + saylor, & seems fears of both subsiding
up
thoughts on portfolio allocations in bull markets
70% high conviction plays
30% degen risky plays
very important to segment your portfolio this way, will help you maintain clarity and have funds to chase while also keeping long term exposure always
high conviction plays should be coins you are willing to hold for several months with a core fundamental thesis behind them and clear invalidations for when you are wrong
stuff like $BTC / $ETH / $SOL / $HYPE, but the best high conviction spots are the ones where you find a midcap and allocate aggressively towards it as consensus is forming around it, for me last cycle this was $SOL & $COIN around 10B market cap, they were not confirmed majors yet but i was able to see these trades before they were & did well with them, 2024 it was $HYPE before it was consensus, i am actively trying to find these trades for the upcoming cycle you likely are aware of some of the coins i think this could be for this cycle already
but this is where you should spend the most of your time and research for awhile and build your positions over time, if you have a 9-5 you should take some portion of your income and set aside for getting exposure to risk assets in this way, @X is honestly a great forum for research and finding people with good ideas
30% degen port is always critically important because it allows you to take on much more risk but also get exposure to coins that may return your entire portfolio, this is where you spend time trenching new pairs, buying innovative on-chain plays, longing coins on leverage w/ perps, trading memecoins developing momentum
you will lose with a much higher hit rate on these coins but you also have a much higher chance of hitting a 1000x, for people with small portfolios this is where you should spend the majority of your time, when you have a smaller portfolio you have to outwork the other traders in the market by being early to narratives on-chain before they are consensus and finding great spots
this part of the portfolio also helps you with not experiencing fomo, because if you already have capital set aside to ape the trend of the week then you dont end up selling your high conviction bags to do so & when you are right then you have even more capital to compound into your highest conviction bags later, it is understated how important it is to do this
i keep seeing people mad on the timeline that their coins are not moving and think a large part of their frustration is that they are not diversifying their portfolios in this way, you would not be mad at other coins doing well if you had capital set aside to chase things that are moving, even if it is a small amount, there are traders and holders in every market, imo we are entering the period where holders outperform traders, but only if you are in the right coins, & having an ape stack on the side guards you against the possibility that you chose to diamond hand some garbage instead of gems