Dataherder

Rambling into the void

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

A new speculative mania is a matter of time

There’s always a reason, maybe it’s financial nihilism, maybe AI agents spending on crypto rails narrative

Or simply because prices go up high enough to cause a fomo tidal wave

We cannot help ourselves

It is coming

Stay strong

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

GEN Z TURNS TO CRYPTO AND BETTING FOR WEALTH

Many Gen Z investors are turning to high-risk assets to reach financial goals, according to a study by Northwestern Mutual.

The survey found 80% of Gen Z feel financially behind and believe speculative investments can help them build wealth faster than traditional strategies.

About 32% are invested in or considering crypto, while a similar share are participating in sports betting and prediction markets.

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

On climbing the wall of worry and early 2023 parallels

The emotional rollercoaster that is CT is a great way to study market psychology in real time

When we moved up swiftly in August on the back of the Treasury flinching, many market participants were slow to adjust and remained clinging to bearish narratives (4 year cycle, AI/memory bubble, rising yields)

Now that we're consolidating above the 50W and correcting a little, old fud is coming out of the woordworks again combined with a potent new and hard to categorically refute cryptography threat

2023 vs 2026

The current spot of the crypto market reminds me a lot of our situation in early 2023 when we were going through the aftermath of FTX, the SEC's chokehold on crypto was suffocating and literal banks imploded, causing USDC to depeg

All of these cataclysmic events caused $BTC to spike sharply lower, faking out below the previous low and then continue upwards. If we were to repeat this same pattern, that could take us down to as low as 68k, although I'd argue that we really don't want to go below 72k risk management wise and that you want to see a sharp reversal in that area to remain bullish

Why fear is bullish

The thing to remember about early 2023 is that none of those worries were resolved when price turned upwards again. The SEC only got more aggressive, the banking stress dragged on for months, and BTC still went from sub 20k to 30k in about a month

Most walls of worry are scary in the moment, but in the end risk takers and eternal optimists need people to be scared to hold or buy when things look wonky. If everybody is already in, who's left to buy our bags higher up?

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

Final post on kinetiq:native S2

Still feel severely misled about the decision and methodology of the team but I'm obviously speaking from a biased active S2 participant perspective

Several things stand out: (lack of) communication & price of 'claim' combined with the claim period (!)

I completely would've understand if the team would've communicated from the start that this is how S2 would be conducted, but everything pointed towards S2 being a 'normal' aidrop

Obviously the team is aware of this and have actively decided to prioritize token holders and investors over their actual user base who provided them with hefty fees throughout the course of S2, arguing that this decision benefits the protocol most (there were several other more community aligned options to do so as well)

The argument that only farmers participated and would've dumped instantly is easy to make but would the token really would've dumped more than it currently did if they did a 5% drop or a 2.5% drop/2.5% raise? Personally I'm not a whale by any means but managed to rake up over 100k points by intensely using Markets this past year. My plan was to hold my airdrop to a dollar and beyond because I believe(d) in the potential of Kinetiq and I know many people who had the same vision and mindset

A lot has been said about price pumping before the airdrop, thereby increasing the 'claim' price. I will not pretend to know if this was part of the plan or simply a result of people getting bullish on Kinetiq (very possible). Fact is that current price is only a few cents above claim price which makes the arb quite insignificant comparing to fees (and time) spent on S2

The claim period however is something that the team could use to be somewhat forthcoming towards their loyal user base of this past year. Most people who participated in S2 did so because they believe in the protocol and think prices will be higher in the future. Extending this claim period to a year will give the community an actual valuable option, instead of having to gamble a big part of our portfolio in current wobbly market circumstances for a few cents market price difference

Truly hoping the team can see this perspective as it wouldn't hurt the protocol and token price when community members claim the remainder of their option spread out throughout the coming year & more money would be raised this way as well. Personally this would definitely remove some of the sour taste in my mouth this whole affair has left me

What's left is the question if this S2 decision actually benefits the protocol. It might very well be since they have been able to raise cash and take away some token overhang, but it's also very possible they have alienated their core user base with this decision and reap the bitter fruits of that later, I'm honestly not sure

From my perspective this whole affair has caused pretty severe aura loss to Kinetiq & the team tho and it all feels kinda gross to me as it stands right now

Learned a painful but valuable lesson, I have little hope that the team will change the claim period but tagging some people anyway in case they're receptive to this idea

@0xOmnia @ericonomic @0xmagnus @herbgreenberg
@jords (as Kinetiq affiliate who I respect and who has commented on this situation as well)

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

@0xOmnia @Kinetiq_xyz At least consider extending the claim period to a year or something

Price to ‘claim’ compared to current price is laughable considering the amount of time and fees your community spend during the past year using Markets

Hope you and your team can see this as well

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

@koolkrypto223 @HyperliquidEco @0xOmnia Not everybody is a whale

Took a lot of time, effort and fees for smaller members in the community to rake up points which they did because of a believe in the project and team

This result feels incredibly misleading

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

@0xOmnia @koolkrypto223 S1 was good. Whole communication around S2 has simply been incredibly misleading

Im obviously coping hard but feels like a stab in the back of loyal users who’ve been using Markets this past year and paying handsome fees for that

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

@tonix_C 10% base case, hoping for more

https://t.co/mMIHizdMLY

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

kinetiq:native

S2 Speculation

How much supply will be dropped AKA how much is 1 kPoint worth?

Data & Factors

- S2 consists of 46 weeks in which 800k points were dropped weekly = 36.8M points in total
- Current circulating supply is ~276M out of a total supply of 1B - 30% of total supply is reserved for Protocol Growth & Rewards
- Too much supply overhang from this basket creates uncertainty (see HL S3/no S3 chitchat)
- Founder has demonstrated alignment to Hyperliquid's airdrop & community building ethos - Kinetiq's @Markets_xyz mobile app is being pushed hard and trading on Markets has been rewarded generously in kPoints

Season 2 has been flying under the industrial airdrop farming radar because of several factors (bear market, slightly disappointing S1 due to massive competition & Variational imo)

Kinetiq therefore has an opportunity here to actually reward its loyal users handsomely with a big fat kinetiq:native stimmy, cement it's community focused image & gain Markets app/Elysium L2 advertisement in the process

Now on to the percentage drop for S2

- 5% airdrop of total supply feels low (only ~15M in current $ terms)
- 10% is an amount which would leave ample reserves for future seasons and protocol growth rewards, while dropping serious numbers to loyal Markets users
- 15% would be half of the Protocol Growth fund, which seems slightly risky from a future-oriented perspective

Prediction

- My base case is that 10% of total supply (100M kinetiq:native) will be dropped to kPoint holders & adjacent communities (Hypurrs)
- The timing (right before the bull & launch of @Enter_Elysium) couldn't be better and Kinetiq team has proven they want to leave their mark and reward their loyal users

- If 1 kPoint = ~2.5 kinetiq:native it would distribute 92M coins and leave 8M left for other (community) allocations

Only one more week of kPoint distribution left after last Tuesday's snapshot

GL and don't forget to HF

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

@MadelonVos__ @grok klopt dit, waar komt deze claim vandaan en is dat geverifieerd

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

@thesogle_ Lmao I appreciate the ingenious mental gymnastics and hope you’re right

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

@mr_Smith_Econ @grok fact check dit, geef per claim aan of het klopt en geef de bron

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

@AlphaWolfPRMR 10%

https://t.co/mMIHizdMLY

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

kinetiq:native

S2 Speculation

How much supply will be dropped AKA how much is 1 kPoint worth?

Data & Factors

- S2 consists of 46 weeks in which 800k points were dropped weekly = 36.8M points in total
- Current circulating supply is ~276M out of a total supply of 1B - 30% of total supply is reserved for Protocol Growth & Rewards
- Too much supply overhang from this basket creates uncertainty (see HL S3/no S3 chitchat)
- Founder has demonstrated alignment to Hyperliquid's airdrop & community building ethos - Kinetiq's @Markets_xyz mobile app is being pushed hard and trading on Markets has been rewarded generously in kPoints

Season 2 has been flying under the industrial airdrop farming radar because of several factors (bear market, slightly disappointing S1 due to massive competition & Variational imo)

Kinetiq therefore has an opportunity here to actually reward its loyal users handsomely with a big fat kinetiq:native stimmy, cement it's community focused image & gain Markets app/Elysium L2 advertisement in the process

Now on to the percentage drop for S2

- 5% airdrop of total supply feels low (only ~15M in current $ terms)
- 10% is an amount which would leave ample reserves for future seasons and protocol growth rewards, while dropping serious numbers to loyal Markets users
- 15% would be half of the Protocol Growth fund, which seems slightly risky from a future-oriented perspective

Prediction

- My base case is that 10% of total supply (100M kinetiq:native) will be dropped to kPoint holders & adjacent communities (Hypurrs)
- The timing (right before the bull & launch of @Enter_Elysium) couldn't be better and Kinetiq team has proven they want to leave their mark and reward their loyal users

- If 1 kPoint = ~2.5 kinetiq:native it would distribute 92M coins and leave 8M left for other (community) allocations

Only one more week of kPoint distribution left after last Tuesday's snapshot

GL and don't forget to HF

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

@AlphaWolfPRMR @Kinetiq_xyz This is going to be a massive cook

10% drop is my base case, reasoning below

https://t.co/mMIHizdMLY

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

kinetiq:native

S2 Speculation

How much supply will be dropped AKA how much is 1 kPoint worth?

Data & Factors

- S2 consists of 46 weeks in which 800k points were dropped weekly = 36.8M points in total
- Current circulating supply is ~276M out of a total supply of 1B - 30% of total supply is reserved for Protocol Growth & Rewards
- Too much supply overhang from this basket creates uncertainty (see HL S3/no S3 chitchat)
- Founder has demonstrated alignment to Hyperliquid's airdrop & community building ethos - Kinetiq's @Markets_xyz mobile app is being pushed hard and trading on Markets has been rewarded generously in kPoints

Season 2 has been flying under the industrial airdrop farming radar because of several factors (bear market, slightly disappointing S1 due to massive competition & Variational imo)

Kinetiq therefore has an opportunity here to actually reward its loyal users handsomely with a big fat kinetiq:native stimmy, cement it's community focused image & gain Markets app/Elysium L2 advertisement in the process

Now on to the percentage drop for S2

- 5% airdrop of total supply feels low (only ~15M in current $ terms)
- 10% is an amount which would leave ample reserves for future seasons and protocol growth rewards, while dropping serious numbers to loyal Markets users
- 15% would be half of the Protocol Growth fund, which seems slightly risky from a future-oriented perspective

Prediction

- My base case is that 10% of total supply (100M kinetiq:native) will be dropped to kPoint holders & adjacent communities (Hypurrs)
- The timing (right before the bull & launch of @Enter_Elysium) couldn't be better and Kinetiq team has proven they want to leave their mark and reward their loyal users

- If 1 kPoint = ~2.5 kinetiq:native it would distribute 92M coins and leave 8M left for other (community) allocations

Only one more week of kPoint distribution left after last Tuesday's snapshot

GL and don't forget to HF

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

Took a position in $NET

Am very bullish on Robinhood chain, but like Stonk’s reflection model more than RH’s Long

Netnet has the best ponzinomics on RH and I think people are going to be looking for the best ponzi once again during RH’s next leg & later mania

Keep it simple

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

kinetiq:native

S2 Speculation

How much supply will be dropped AKA how much is 1 kPoint worth?

Data & Factors

- S2 consists of 46 weeks in which 800k points were dropped weekly = 36.8M points in total
- Current circulating supply is ~276M out of a total supply of 1B - 30% of total supply is reserved for Protocol Growth & Rewards
- Too much supply overhang from this basket creates uncertainty (see HL S3/no S3 chitchat)
- Founder has demonstrated alignment to Hyperliquid's airdrop & community building ethos - Kinetiq's @Markets_xyz mobile app is being pushed hard and trading on Markets has been rewarded generously in kPoints

Season 2 has been flying under the industrial airdrop farming radar because of several factors (bear market, slightly disappointing S1 due to massive competition & Variational imo)

Kinetiq therefore has an opportunity here to actually reward its loyal users handsomely with a big fat kinetiq:native stimmy, cement it's community focused image & gain Markets app/Elysium L2 advertisement in the process

Now on to the percentage drop for S2

- 5% airdrop of total supply feels low (only ~15M in current $ terms)
- 10% is an amount which would leave ample reserves for future seasons and protocol growth rewards, while dropping serious numbers to loyal Markets users
- 15% would be half of the Protocol Growth fund, which seems slightly risky from a future-oriented perspective

Prediction

- My base case is that 10% of total supply (100M kinetiq:native) will be dropped to kPoint holders & adjacent communities (Hypurrs)
- The timing (right before the bull & launch of @Enter_Elysium) couldn't be better and Kinetiq team has proven they want to leave their mark and reward their loyal users

- If 1 kPoint = ~2.5 kinetiq:native it would distribute 92M coins and leave 8M left for other (community) allocations

Only one more week of kPoint distribution left after last Tuesday's snapshot

GL and don't forget to HF

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

@VikingoDigital_ @Kinetiq_xyz Have little over 100k points now

Some good ol' (k)Points speculation here

https://t.co/eQeZTUIljE

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

kinetiq:native

S2 Speculation

How much supply will be dropped AKA how much is 1 kPoint worth?

Data & Factors

- S2 consists of 46 weeks in which 800k points were dropped weekly = 36.8M points in total
- Current circulating supply is ~276M out of a total supply of 1B - 30% of total supply is reserved for Protocol Growth & Rewards
- Too much supply overhang from this basket creates uncertainty (see HL S3/no S3 chitchat)
- Founder has demonstrated alignment to Hyperliquid's airdrop & community building ethos - Kinetiq's @Markets_xyz mobile app is being pushed hard and trading on Markets has been rewarded generously in kPoints

Season 2 has been flying under the industrial airdrop farming radar because of several factors (bear market, slightly disappointing S1 due to massive competition & Variational imo)

Kinetiq therefore has an opportunity here to actually reward its loyal users handsomely with a big fat kinetiq:native stimmy, cement it's community focused image & gain Markets app/Elysium L2 advertisement in the process

Now on to the percentage drop for S2

- 5% airdrop of total supply feels low (only ~15M in current $ terms)
- 10% is an amount which would leave ample reserves for future seasons and protocol growth rewards, while dropping serious numbers to loyal Markets users
- 15% would be half of the Protocol Growth fund, which seems slightly risky from a future-oriented perspective

Prediction

- My base case is that 10% of total supply (100M
kinetiq:native) will be dropped to kPoint holders & adjacent communities (Hypurrs)
- The timing (right before the bull & launch of @Enter_Elysium) couldn't be better and Kinetiq team has proven they want to leave their mark and reward their loyal users

- If 1 kPoint = ~2.5 kinetiq:native it would distribute 92M coins and leave 8M left for other (community) allocations

Only one more week of kPoint distribution left after today's snapshot

GL and don't forget to HF

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

@Whynotyou The one who endures the rape deserves the rip

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

@Cortes @grok fact check of Volkskrant dit echt gepost heeft en in welke context/vorm

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

@MoonOverlord ATEHUN

It is inevitable

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

@AlphaWolfPRMR @variational_io Yes

https://t.co/XX3Hh55Onu

[Dataherder @DataherderX]

Have a strong feeling that focusing all my attention on Kinetiq S2 over Variational will turn out to be one of the best financial decisions of my life