Phạm Hoá

[Orbion @cryptorbion]

THE MARKET WILL CHARGE YOU TUITION WHETHER YOU ENROLL OR NOT

Medical school: $500K
MBA: $200K
Law school: $300K

You study for years. You pay for the credential. Nobody questions it.

But somehow trading is supposed to be different.

You're supposed to open Coinbase in May and be profitable by September.

That's not how this works.

The traders making real money now paid their tuition years ago.

Bad entries. Blown positions. Strategies that looked right and weren't. Capital that disappeared and taught them something no article ever could.

Years where nothing happens.
Then weeks where years happen.

That's not luck. That's compounding.

Skills compound. Experience compounds. Capital compounds.

The only question is whether you're still in the game when the compounding kicks in.

Most people aren't. They quit during the tuition phase.

That's the entire edge.

[Mark @Mark4XX]

BIGGEST ENERGY CRISIS IN HISTORY: $150 OIL IN WEEKS AS INVENTORIES PLUNGE TO RECORD LOWS

Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, delivered a sobering message in his Bloomberg TV interview. We are living through the biggest energy crisis anyone alive has ever seen — yet most of the world still has no idea what is coming. With Middle East production slashed by 14 million barrels per day, the safety buffer is gone and inventories are about to hit all-time lows.

THE UNPRECEDENTED SHORTAGE
➡️ Middle Eastern production is down a staggering 14 million barrels per day.
➡️ Already lost 650 million barrels of production — and that climbs to 1.5 billion even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens tomorrow.
➡️ The last ships that left before closure have now unloaded, leaving zero safety buffer.

THE INVENTORY COLLAPSE
➡️ US diesel stocks fell 4% in a single week while gasoline dropped 3% outside driving season.
➡️ Global oil inventories are heading straight to all-time record lows by the end of May.
➡️ Complacency rules because the human mind simply cannot grasp something this enormous.

THE INEVITABLE PRICE SPIKE
➡️ Demand must be rationed more severely than during COVID — and price is the only way to do it.
➡️ Expect oil well in excess of $150 per barrel in the coming days or weeks.
➡️ Physical markets are already trading at these brutal levels.

THE POST-CRISIS OUTLOOK
➡️ Nuttall went 100% oil weighted back in January — his fund is already up 44%.
➡️ Once the Strait reopens he still sees an $80 floor with demand boosted 40% from restocking depleted inventories and SPRs.

THE BOTTOM LINE
Eric Nuttall has spent 25 years in this market and calls this the biggest disruption of his lifetime. The world is sleepwalking into a supply shock that will force prices higher faster than anyone expects.
This is the calm before the storm hits hard.
#EnergyCrisis #150Oil #OilShortage #StraitOfHormuz #RecordLowInventories #OilPrices #EnergyShock

[FattyNatsu @FattyNatsu]

Want to live on crypto in Vietnam 🇻🇳?

Here’s what you need:

🏨 Travel + stays → https://t.co/Ie31tYmBLV
💵 Cash → https://t.co/WXBAqLJOvd
📲 QR payments + Gift cards → https://t.co/oGGfLkIZS7

No bank. No ID. Full freedom.

[Mente Sabia @Mente_Sabiaa]

7 maneras de hacer que la gente te RESPETE INMEDIATAMENTE:

1. Deja que tus acciones hablen MAS que tus palabras.

[Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy @Macrobysunil]

In 2020, Covid lockdowns became the perfect cover for massive monetary expansion.

People accepted it as “crisis management” because the fear was visible, immediate, and global.

Now the question is whether a similar playbook is forming again, this time through energy stress.

If supply chains destroys further, oil spikes, power shortages emerge, or energy rationing becomes normalized, governments and central banks may once again justify extraordinary spending and liquidity injections as emergency support.

Different trigger, same structure:

Crisis → restrictions → stimulus → money printing → asset inflation.

The market should watch energy very closely. Because if energy becomes the next lockdown narrative, the next liquidity cycle may already be preparing in the background.

[DurdenBTC @DurdenBTC]

reserve risk just printed 92.

in a 0-100 long-term-holder conviction index.

reserve risk has only crossed 90 four times in bitcoin's history. each time, a major bottom landed within 6 months.

[Jason Pizzino 🌞 @jasonpizzino]

Bitcoin is repeating the 12-year-old pattern of rallying on low volume to the 200W MA.

What followed in all prior bear markets was another correction on INCREASING volume which is a great sign the bear market is coming to an end and beginning it's final transition.

[ThuanCapital @ThuanCapital]

7 LÝ DO BITCOIN CÓ THỂ CHƯA CHẠM ĐÁY

1- Chu kỳ 4 năm vẫn chưa hoàn tất theo lịch sử

Theo các mô hình chu kỳ, đáy thường rơi vào khoảng tháng 10–11, tức ~12 tháng sau đỉnh. Nếu lịch sử lại lập lại, thị trường vẫn còn một giai đoạn điều chỉnh phía trước, cho dù có hay hay không có thiên nga đen.

2- Chưa kiểm tra vùng chuẩn đáy dài hạn (SMA 200W)

BTC trong lịch sử luôn chạm hoặc xuống nhẹ dưới SMA 200 tuần để hoàn tất giai đoạn đầu hàng. Giá hiện vẫn đang cao hơn vùng này (~59-60K)

3- Tín hiệu MA 50W / 100W chưa xác nhận đáy

Đường MA 50 tuần vẫn nằm trên MA 100 tuần. Trong các chu kỳ trước, sự giao cắt hoặc nén chặt giữa hai đường này mới là dấu hiệu kết thúc bear market.

3- RHODL cao có thể phản ánh thiếu demand mới

Mức 4.5 vẫn thấp hơn các đáy trước (5–7). Điều này có thể cho thấy thị trường chỉ đang nguội đi, chứ chưa thực sự bước vào pha tích lũy cuối cùng.

4- Đợt hồi hiện tại có thể chỉ là relief rally

Cú bật từ ~$60K lên ~$78K có thể là nhịp hồi kỹ thuật trong xu hướng giảm lớn. Nếu không có breakout rõ ràng kèm volume, xu hướng chính vẫn chưa thay đổi.

5- Áp lực từ chính sách “cao và lâu hơn” của Fed

Lãi suất cao kéo dài tiếp tục làm giảm thanh khoản và tăng chi phí, tạo áp lực lên các tài sản rủi ro như BTC.

6- Rủi ro “risk-off” từ địa chính trị, thuế quan và thanh khoản

Nếu căng thẳng địa chính trị leo thang, giá dầu tăng mạnh hoặc rủi ro thuế quan quay trở lại, thị trường có thể nhanh chóng chuyển sang trạng thái giữ tiền mặt là ưu tiên. Khi đó, dòng tiền sẽ rút khỏi tài sản rủi ro và BTC vẫn có thể bị bán để bù đắp margin hoặc giảm rủi ro trong danh mục.

7- Rủi ro dòng tiền ETF đảo chiều

Hiện tại BTC đang được hỗ trợ mạnh bởi dòng tiền từ ETF. Tuy nhiên, nếu dòng tiền này chậm lại hoặc chuyển sang net outflow, lực cầu chính của thị trường sẽ suy yếu. Khi đó, giá BTC có thể mất điểm tựa và điều chỉnh mạnh hơn.

[On-Chain Mind @OnChainMind]

Almost every major decision in Bitcoin comes down to one thing: profit and loss.

Right now, Bitcoin is sitting in one of the most important profit-and-loss zones in years.

We can see who’s trapped, who’s capitulating, and whether this pain marks the bottom… or just the beginning 👇🏼

[سعد الغنامي @1_saad]

🚨🚨دهون الوجه تخليك تبان أكبر في السن أكثر من التجاعيد نفسها..!,

وهذي طرق علمية تساعدك تتخلص منها (احفظها بتحتاجها):👇

[Mike @MarketMike]

This might be the most important chart nobody is paying attention to right now.

S&P 500 on top, yield curve in the middle, Fed Funds rate on the bottom. Nearly 30 years of data.

Before every major decline over the last three decades, the same pattern played out. New all-time highs. The yield curve inverts and then un-inverts. The Fed starts cutting rates.

The Dot Com bubble. The Great Financial Crisis. The Pandemic.

Currently, S&P 500 is near all-time highs. Yield curve recently came out of an incredibly long and deep inversion. Fed cutting rates from the highest level since 2007.

I don't pretend to know what's going to happen. I just find interesting patterns in the market. As Mark Twain once said, history doesn't always repeat, but it often rhymes.

But if something bigger does play out, we're all going to look back at this chart and wonder how it was so obvious.

Then again… I know, I know. "This time is different." It always is, right?

[Valor Mental 🧠 @valormental]

26. La proteína es el macronutriente que más sacia. Come proteína primero para evitar comer en exceso.
27. Consume entre 0,8 y 1 g de proteína por libra de peso objetivo para una saciedad óptima, crecimiento muscular y pérdida de grasa.
28. Los carbohidratos no te hacen engordar: el exceso de calorías sí.

[Zoe Gutiérrez @ZoeGutier]

11. Encuentra un lugar oscuro. Sé uno con él. Disfrútalo. Quédate allí 6-12 meses.

12. Los maníacos son increíbles. Te enseñan lo que el esfuerzo y la obsesión pueden lograr.

13. Evita estar ocupado. Significa que no sabes cómo enfocarte y es una señal de bajo estatus.

[Zoe Gutiérrez @ZoeGutier]

Tengo 36 años. Si estás en tus 20 o 30, lee esto:

1. Cuando cumplas 35 verás la diferencia entre los que tomaron riesgos y los que no.

2. Tener hijos no es el fin de la libertad, es el comienzo. Te dará un propósito que alimentará tu grandeza.

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

Spicy day on markets with everything selling off except utilities, energy, consumer defensive and real estate.
Typical late cycle behavior (recession).

The energy shortage is similar to July 2008 but this time it's 10x worse because the supply has been cut off for almost 30 days.

The impact of the supply cutoff hasn't fully hit yet because the ships are still on the water and oil supply hasn't been drained yet. The real impact will hit late April, when suddenly the narrative goes from "the war is only affecting the Middle East" to affecting the entire world.

Then we have the secondary effects of food shortages this fall. Lockdowns / rationing 2.0? Not long to find out.

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

Japanese Yen is increasing in value at 153:1 USD.
If it continues this collapses the Yen carry trade, sucking liquidity out of U.S. markets.

If history is any indicator, this is suggesting we're about to see a volatility event next week, which would line up with OpEx & Iran.

[Rajat Soni, CFA @Rajatsoni]

If you bought $100 of Bitcoin every week since the November 2021 ATH (Bitcoin reached $69,000 for a few minutes), you'd own ~0.55 BTC

You would have spent $22,200

Your Bitcoin would be worth ~$37,000

You would be up 67% even though Bitcoin is down 2.2% 🤯

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

@NunoMeloSimes1 Remember, they need to get rates down to 1% in the next 30 days to roll over the U.S. debt.

You can't accomplish that unless you have a flash crash crisis like March 2020.

https://t.co/HyhyMvqjIY

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

The U.S. invasion of Iraq 1.0 began on Wed Jan 16, 1991
The 2nd invasion of Iraq began on Wed Mar 19, 2003

Both were timed two days before Options Expiration (OpEx).

VIXpiration is Wed Feb 18, 2026 with OpEx Fri Feb 20, 2026.
The 2020 flash crash began on OpEx Fri Feb 20, 2020.