David Daoud

🇺🇸 Senior Fellow @FDD. J.D. in Int'l Law/Laws of Armed Conflict. Focused on the nexus of Israel, Hezbollah, and Lebanon. יהודי מהעדה הלבנונית.

[David Daoud @DavidADaoud]

"I have no data yet. It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts." - Sherlock Holmes, A Scandal in Bohemia

[David Daoud @DavidADaoud]

Your assumption seems to be that I don't understand Lebanon or that I view Lebanese as a monolith.

No. I understand Lebanon is a politically/ideologically pluralistic society. I also understand that some of that pluralism is pro-Hezbollah, and that the bulk of the anti-Hezbollah/non-Hezbollah segments of Lebanese society don't want anything to do with Israel -- for both legitimate and also insane/conspiratorial reasons.

What I'm trying to do is go beyond the generalities of the pie-in-the-sky talk of what "should" be done to what can be done given: 1) the composition of Lebanese society, 2) the leanings of each segment of Lebanese society, and 3) each segment's respective power and capabilities.

[David Daoud @DavidADaoud]

Arens understood what Sharon didn't: that there is no such thing as one Lebanon, let alone a "Christian Lebanon" created in the image of Bashir Gemayel. That wrong concept was the fatal error of the 1982 Lebanon campaign.

There were, and remain, many "Lebanons" and they have been vying for control of the country and for defining what it is since its independence.

Rather than an alien Iranian occupation of Lebanon, Hezbollah and its coalition are but one set of contenders trying to orient Lebanon and reformulate the meaning of Lebanese nationalism according to their preferences -- in this case, in alignment with the principles of the Iranian Islamic revolutionary ideology to which they adhere.

[Jacob Ben-David Linker 🇺🇸🕎🇺🇸✡️🇺🇸🕎🇺🇸 @JacobALinker]

Israeli Defense Minister in 1984:

"Being on good terms with Lebanon means being on good terms with the many ethnic and religious groups in Lebanon. It cannot mean just being on good terms with one particular constituent element."

Folks in 2026 still haven't learned this...

[David Daoud @DavidADaoud]

No, my raison d'etre is to make sure the US and Israel go into this will clear eyes -- not the rose-tinted blinders through which certain Lebanese activists want us to see Lebanon, to advance their own interests.

The funny thing is, honest Lebanese observers and analysts will agree with my premises, even if they understandably disagree with my prescriptions.

But hey, some faceless bot has spoken. Who needs anything else?

[FDD @FDD]

Israel Seizes Medieval Fortress in Renewed Effort To Defeat Hezbollah

New Policy Brief by @DavidADaoud:
https://t.co/srdmVwprPO

[David Daoud @DavidADaoud]

@JacobALinker Arens was a brilliant man.

[David Daoud @DavidADaoud]

How exactly is a group comprised of Lebanese, supported by significant swathes of the Lebanese people, “an enemy of Lebanon and of the Lebanese people?”

I know it doesn’t fit the narrative to admit that Lebanon and the Lebanese people — at least parts of them — are a significant part of the problem, but this is crossing a line into self-deception.

[Department of State @StateDept]

SECRETARY RUBIO: "Hezbollah is not just an enemy of Israel and an enemy of America, Hezbollah is an enemy of Lebanon and of the Lebanese people."

[Alex Ward @alexbward]

NEW: There were *TWO* tense Trump-Netanyahu calls on Monday. It was the second where Trump tore into Bibi, demanding Israel pull back from attacks on Beirut and that Bibi should listen bc Trump had kept him out of prison (as Axios first reported).

[Joe Truzman @JoeTruzman]

Tehran has strategized that Hezbollah’s long-term recovery can be best accomplished by incorporating a ceasefire in Lebanon into an Iranian-American peace deal. Iran does not want a return to the post-2024 ceasefire status quo, where Israel continued to strike Hezbollah due to the group's continued efforts to rebuild in southern Lebanon.

Tehran wants a complete cessation of hostilities and Israeli troops out of southern Lebanon, all while ensuring that Hezbollah will rearm and recuperate from its losses during the ceasefire.

[David Daoud @DavidADaoud]

Hezbollah Political Council deputy chairman Mahmoud Qmati says Hezbollah didn’t agree to partial ceasefire and Hezbollah rejects the equation or “Dahiyeh = Northern Israel communities.”

[التلفزيون العربي @AlarabyTV]

#عاجل | بدء جولة جديدة من المحادثات بين لبنان وإسرائيل في واشنطن.. تغطية خاصة https://t.co/fPdtlw3vLK

[Marc Caputo @MarcACaputo]

“What the fuck are you doing?!” Trump lit into Netanyahu over the Lebanon bombing:

“You're fucking crazy. You'd be in prison if it weren't for me. I'm saving your ass. Everybody hates you now. Everybody hates Israel because of this."

@BarakRavid & I

https://t.co/b1lEZEmN6p

[David Daoud @DavidADaoud]

@manda_lani Nabih Berri

[David Daoud @DavidADaoud]

Hezbollah Ally Says the Iran-Backed Group Wants a New Truce With Israel https://t.co/2x7gKLZFvQ

[David Daoud @DavidADaoud]

.@mb_ghalibaf expressed his view to Berri that "Hezbollah and AMAL were defending their land and the Islamic umma, the immutable nature of the relationship between Iran and Lebanon, and that 'our blood and yours is one.'

Ghalibaf also said Iran's efforts during the past two days were focused on stopping Israeli attacks, warning that if the attacks continue, Iran will not only stop negotiations, but will confront the Zionist entity.

He added that Iran is determined to establish a ceasefire throughout Lebanon, especially in the south. He pointed out that any possible agreement to end the war between Iran and the United States would include stopping attacks on various fronts, especially in Lebanon."

[David Daoud @DavidADaoud]

Berri was meanwhile playing the Iranian side of the coin too. In a phonecall w/@mb_ghalibaf, Berri expressed his "appreciation for Iran's efforts to end Israel's aggression, stressing that Lebanon will not forget Iran's helpful positions during this sensitive period." https://t.co/2dzicllajU

[Reuters @Reuters]

When Israeli forces captured the 900-year-old Beaufort Castle in southern Lebanon, they returned to a strategic fortress they had occupied throughout their 18-year presence in the country's south https://t.co/nzJzFExerz

[David Daoud @DavidADaoud]

.@lebanondebate: A Qatari diplomatic source told Al Jazeera that Qatari officials have been acting as mediators since Sunday to help reach a ceasefire in Lebanon; President Trump informed the Qataris, after speaking to PM Netanyahu, that Israel had called off Dahiyeh airstrike.

https://t.co/sFXjhidhGkمصدر-دبلوماسي-قطري-لالجزيرة-مسؤولون-قطريون-قطريون-دخلوا-على-خط-الوساطة-منذ-الأحد

https://t.co/FJOGluHw7nمصدر-دبلوماسي-قطري-لالجزيرة-واشنطن-أبلغتغت-الجانب-القطري-بعد-اتصال-ترامب-بنتياهو

[David Daoud @DavidADaoud]

This is a near-identical pattern to the one that led to the April 16, 2026 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement. See my analysis in @LongWarJournal here.
https://t.co/LFP4AyV7Pa

[David Daoud @DavidADaoud]

"...a very good call with Hezbollah..."

What in the...

[David Daoud @DavidADaoud]

Anyone still thinking Trump isn't doing this under Iranian pressure is, at this point, delusional.

Let's look at the sequence:

-Israel escalates against Hezbollah
-Iran throws a tantrum -- Abbas Aragchi, Qalibaf, and an Iranian military spox make it clear Tehran is still linking its own ceasefire with the United States to a concurrent ceasefire in Lebanon.
-Iran stops negotiation messages with the United States
-Israel was planning a major strike in Beirut.
-the United States/Trump intervene -- the strike is called off, and apparently the war is over?