David Brail

Portfolio Manager at Brail Partners. Focused on merger arb, contested deals, and event-driven equity and debt. Based in NYC. Nothing here is investment advice.

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

@A_May_MD I took a look at ABVX based on your tweets. Appreciate your work, led to a nice trade that i otherwise wouldn't have considered wouldn't have looked at. Thank you!

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

Pretty terrible outcome. Probably gives you all the information you need about what they were unable to sell. Given this took so long I got out thinking this type of failure was the likely outcome. They’re very vulnerable to a proxy contest. I would think I don’t know who would run it though.

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

@TrungTPhan Used to eat glass also. Look it up.

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

@MattJMcClintock @ProfPaulNary brutal

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

I wrote about the situation at length. We are short eBay.

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

Ryan Cohen's $125 hostile bid for eBay is being priced by the tape as if it's more likely than not to close.
It isn't. My firm is short EBAY.
Here's why the calendar, the math, and the board all sit on the side of the shorts. 🧵

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

Ryan Cohen’s 13D this morning discloses more recent purchases of eBay via derivatives. He now owns thru the derivatives about 6.9% of eBay, and paid as high as $115 for stock. This may explain eBay’s recent strength. He will convert his position to common when he clears Hart Scott antitrust review, which is a formality.

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

@ryeandbitters True but it’s up quite a bit on this.

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

Ryan Cohen's $125 hostile bid for eBay is being priced by the tape as if it's more likely than not to close.
It isn't. My firm is short EBAY.
Here's why the calendar, the math, and the board all sit on the side of the shorts. 🧵

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

I don't think this offer is sufficiently credible to put eBay in play. I think it can easily be ignored, daring Cohen to come with a more credible bid before having to worry about any threat to independence. And they would have plenty of time, 13 months, before any real pressure could be applied by Cohen.

$EBAY $GME
Brail Cap is short EBAY

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

@terraformedmind @AlexZarac @ryancohen https://t.co/TvIMUyNvua

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

Ryan Cohen's $125 hostile bid for eBay is being priced by the tape as if it's more likely than not to close.
It isn't. My firm is short EBAY.
Here's why the calendar, the math, and the board all sit on the side of the shorts. 🧵

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

@marketswithmay @JamesDrgme https://t.co/TvIMUyNvua

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

Ryan Cohen's $125 hostile bid for eBay is being priced by the tape as if it's more likely than not to close.
It isn't. My firm is short EBAY.
Here's why the calendar, the math, and the board all sit on the side of the shorts. 🧵

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

@terraformedmind @ruedaoj @42thumbout @AlexZarac @ryancohen https://t.co/TvIMUyNvua

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

Ryan Cohen's $125 hostile bid for eBay is being priced by the tape as if it's more likely than not to close.
It isn't. My firm is short EBAY.
Here's why the calendar, the math, and the board all sit on the side of the shorts. 🧵

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

@MrMojoRisinX https://t.co/TvIMUyNvua

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

Ryan Cohen's $125 hostile bid for eBay is being priced by the tape as if it's more likely than not to close.
It isn't. My firm is short EBAY.
Here's why the calendar, the math, and the board all sit on the side of the shorts. 🧵

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

@PhantomBlack699 https://t.co/TvIMUyNvua

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

Ryan Cohen's $125 hostile bid for eBay is being priced by the tape as if it's more likely than not to close.
It isn't. My firm is short EBAY.
Here's why the calendar, the math, and the board all sit on the side of the shorts. 🧵

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

@LiebermanAustin @ryancohen https://t.co/TvIMUyNvua

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

Ryan Cohen's $125 hostile bid for eBay is being priced by the tape as if it's more likely than not to close.
It isn't. My firm is short EBAY.
Here's why the calendar, the math, and the board all sit on the side of the shorts. 🧵

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

@ValueAddedRS @ryancohen https://t.co/TvIMUyNvua

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

Ryan Cohen's $125 hostile bid for eBay is being priced by the tape as if it's more likely than not to close.
It isn't. My firm is short EBAY.
Here's why the calendar, the math, and the board all sit on the side of the shorts. 🧵

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

@rogoswami @semafor https://t.co/TvIMUyNvua

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

Ryan Cohen's $125 hostile bid for eBay is being priced by the tape as if it's more likely than not to close.
It isn't. My firm is short EBAY.
Here's why the calendar, the math, and the board all sit on the side of the shorts. 🧵

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

@ProfPaulNary @ryancohen https://t.co/TvIMUyNvua

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

Ryan Cohen's $125 hostile bid for eBay is being priced by the tape as if it's more likely than not to close.
It isn't. My firm is short EBAY.
Here's why the calendar, the math, and the board all sit on the side of the shorts. 🧵

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

Base case over 6–9 months: $100–108.
Wrong only if a real bidder shows up, or Cohen makes the math close. Neither has happened in two weeks of public scrutiny.
EBAY looks to us like a $100 stock pretending to be a $115 stock.
Full piece: https://t.co/hIDi3QnOBe

Brail Partners is short EBAY. Not investment advice

[David Brail @DavidBrail]

Counter-argument: a real bidder shows up at $135.
Probability tree: in-play floor $98–102, Cohen-bid realizable $115, 30–40% interloper at $135 → $108–112.
To clear $115 the market needs both a higher interloper probability AND Cohen success. That's optimistic-on-everything.