David D. Chapman

Author • Historian • Political Commentator • Host of 'The David Chapman Show' • Baseball Fanatic • DM for Contact • Opinions Are My Own •

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

My Final Senate Predictions.

Texas 🟥 Paxton by 2-3pts
Ohio🟥 Husted by 2pts
NC 🟦 Cooper by 5-6pts
Florida 🟥 Moody by 7pts
Georgia 🟦 Ossoff by 6-7pts
Nebraska 🟥 Ricketts by 6pts
Kansas 🟥 Marshall by 3-5pts
Michigan 🟦 El-Sayed by 2-4pts
Maine 🟥 Collins by 5pts
Iowa 🟥 Hinson by 3-4pts
Alaska 🟥 Sullivan by 2-4pts
Minnesota 🟦 Flanagan by 3-4pts

Final - Republicans hold the Senate.
🟥 52 (-1)
🟦 48 (+1)

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

Had fun with @cliffordesq today on his podcast.

We talked the midterms.

Go check it out.

[Merin Law, LLC @cliffordesq]

we are BACK--thanks to @DavidD_Chapman for joining today's podcast

https://t.co/9UlWbXWIly

[OSZ @OpenSourceZone]

If the polling patterns of GOP Overperformance from 2018-2024 continue, Republicans will hold the senate

🔴 Republicans: 52
🔵 Democrats: 48

Michigan: 🔴 Republican Flip
Texas: 🔴 Republican Hold
Alaska: 🔴 Republican Hold
Ohio: 🔴 Republican Hold

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

@sethjlevy @AF_Insight @KJVPopulist https://t.co/Do7FIMKPJx

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

🚨 Announcement 🚨

On Sunday November 1st at 8pm Eastern Time I will be live on YouTube and X for a pre-election show.

Three amazing guests will be joining me.
@sethjlevy @AF_Insight and @KJVPopulist

Tune in to get our final predictions.
Link to channel is below

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

@statsprovenutn There are 10 GOP seats that are lean dem or worse. (8 dem seats lean GOP or worse). That is net D+2 but 10 flips.
There are 16 GOP tossups.

26 Republican seats in danger.
Assuming 100% of GOP toss-ups flip, thats D+18 seats.

Like I said, 15 to 25 seats.

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

Preliminary House Predictions

🟦 Democrats 52% (+7)
🟥 Republicans 45%

Democrats pick up 15 to 25 seats.

Final prediction will come the day before election day.

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

@PpollingNumbers Its tied bro

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

Preliminary house prediction.

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

Preliminary House Predictions

🟦 Democrats 52% (+7)
🟥 Republicans 45%

Democrats pick up 15 to 25 seats.

Final prediction will come the day before election day.

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

My Final Senate Predictions.

Texas 🟥 Paxton by 2-3pts
Ohio🟥 Husted by 2pts
NC 🟦 Cooper by 5-6pts
Florida 🟥 Moody by 7pts
Georgia 🟦 Ossoff by 6-7pts
Nebraska 🟥 Ricketts by 6pts
Kansas 🟥 Marshall by 3-5pts
Michigan 🟦 El-Sayed by 2-4pts
Maine 🟥 Collins by 5pts
Iowa 🟥 Hinson by 3-4pts
Alaska 🟥 Sullivan by 2-4pts
Minnesota 🟦 Flanagan by 3-4pts

Final - Republicans hold the Senate.
🟥 52 (-1)
🟦 48 (+1)

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

On October 6, 2026 James Talarico had a lead in the RCP aggregate of 3.1pts.
Since than his lead has fallen to 1.9pts.

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

Wow! The Latest Fox News Poll has the Texas Senate Race tied.

Like I said.
Paxton by 2-3pts.

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

@fjdinardo Obama & Chris Murphy are campaigning for him.

They are all in

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

With the average RCP in Michigan, Rogers is leading by 0.5%

The fact still remains, Benson is still Sec. Of State and Detriot is still a Democrat Machine city.

0.5% is not enough to win beyond the margin of fraud.

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

I went back 3 MI Senate Races on RCP. 2024, 2020, & 2018.

The aggregate understates MI Democrats on average by 0.2pts.
It understates Republicans by 2.7pts.

With the new Marist poll added to RCP,
🟦El-Sayed 48%
🟥Rogers 46%

But with the average miss
🟥 Rogers 48.7% (+0.5)
🟦 El-Sayed 48.2%

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

I voted for this.

[Insider Wire @InsiderWire]

#BREAKING: Armed DHS agents are now going door to door asking about immigration and voter status.

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

In 2022 the Final Genric Ballot was R+2.7
Republicans gained 9 seats.

The Democrats only need a net gain of 3 seats.
The RCP aggregate is D+8.3 and the RCP Generic ballot has never missed by more than 3.7pts.
The average miss is 2.3pts.
Democrats are going to retake the house

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

@Peoples_Pundit @BIGDATAPOLL You are gonna delete this when the environment ends up being D+6 to D+7

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

I went back 3 MI Senate Races on RCP. 2024, 2020, & 2018.

The aggregate understates MI Democrats on average by 0.2pts.
It understates Republicans by 2.7pts.

With the new Marist poll added to RCP,
🟦El-Sayed 48%
🟥Rogers 46%

But with the average miss
🟥 Rogers 48.7% (+0.5)
🟦 El-Sayed 48.2%

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

Marist final 2024 Michigan senate Poll was Slotkin +6
That was a miss of 5.7pts.

[John Doyle @JohnDoyle]

There is no “to the Right” of Trump. It’s not real. It’s purely an exercise in abstraction.

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

@JasonCorley78 Food for thought.

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

I went back 3 MI Senate Races on RCP. 2024, 2020, & 2018.

The aggregate understates MI Democrats on average by 0.2pts.
It understates Republicans by 2.7pts.

With the new Marist poll added to RCP,
🟦El-Sayed 48%
🟥Rogers 46%

But with the average miss
🟥 Rogers 48.7% (+0.5)
🟦 El-Sayed 48.2%

[David D. Chapman @DavidD_Chapman]

I went back 3 MI Senate Races on RCP. 2024, 2020, & 2018.

The aggregate understates MI Democrats on average by 0.2pts.
It understates Republicans by 2.7pts.

With the new Marist poll added to RCP,
🟦El-Sayed 48%
🟥Rogers 46%

But with the average miss
🟥 Rogers 48.7% (+0.5)
🟦 El-Sayed 48.2%