David Papell

Professor of Economics, University of Houston

[David Papell @DavidPapell]

@Jon_Hartley_ @UTAustin Welcome to Texas!

[David Papell @DavidPapell]

@Jon_Hartley_ @StanfordEcon @I_Am_NickBloom @DuffieDarrell @JohnHCochrane @HannoLustig @HooverInst Congratulations!

[David Papell @DavidPapell]

@ElaineLiuEcon The profession was much smaller and homogeneous. I was junior, mostly received requests from editors whom I knew, and didn’t feel that I could say no. I don’t know how the process worked with more senior people.

[David Papell @DavidPapell]

@SophiaKazinnik Just turn yourself into an AI agent.

[David Papell @DavidPapell]

@Jon_Hartley_ Taylor/Woodford/Calvo

[David Papell @DavidPapell]

@jasonfurman The problem is the SEP. The FOMC has to signal a path of rates. The best that Powell can do is to downplay the signal.

[David Papell @DavidPapell]

@gunsnrosesgirl3 We had the pacifier fairy come. She’s a friend of the tooth fairy. Each night, a pacifier gets replaced by a present until they are all gone.

[David Papell @DavidPapell]

@Jon_Hartley_ @LHSummers Don’t they know by now that they need security?

[David Papell @DavidPapell]

@Jon_Hartley_ @Stanford @EconomicsOne @StanfordEcon For perspective, look at John Taylor’s first Economics 1 blog post. Just as relevant today as it was in September 2009.

[David Papell @DavidPapell]

@WSJopinion @jasonfurman This is what John Taylor has been saying for the past 30 years, including his proposal for policy rule evaluation.

[David Papell @DavidPapell]

@DavidBeckworth Why should one have anything to do with the other?

[David Papell @DavidPapell]

@GunjanJS @michaelsderby @WSJmarkets This is politics disguised as economics. If you take out the sharp drop in GDP with Covid from Trump and the subsequent increase in GDP during the Covid recovery from Biden, the slopes of the two lines are identical.

[David Papell @DavidPapell]

@jeannasmialek Congratulations mixed with regrets! Your articles have been very helpful for both my research and teaching and I will miss them.

[David Papell @DavidPapell]

@Jon_Hartley_ Is this a trend or a cycle? My impression is that the number of economists on the FOMC has gone up and down, but I don’t know for sure.

[David Papell @DavidPapell]

@DavidBeckworth @HannoLustig The FOMC’s r* in the SEP was 0.5 in December 2023, 0.6 in March 2024, 0.8 in June 2024, and 0.9 in September 2024. I would wait for at least two consecutive equal numbers before using the word “settle”.

[David Papell @DavidPapell]

@dlmillimet Why did you fly from Albany instead of Newark or LaGuardia?

[David Papell @DavidPapell]

@DavidBeckworth No. I was responding to what he posted on Friday. In accord with his and others response to the BlS explanation.

[David Papell @DavidPapell]

@DavidBeckworth Makes complete sense now that we know all of the increase in unemployment came from an increase in unemployment in Texas caused by Hurricane Beryl.

[David Papell @DavidPapell]

@ericwallerstein Excellent post. Do you think that the people who criticized the FOMC for not raising rates last week or (not including Claudia Sahm) posted that we are in a recession because of the Sahm rule will now retract their posts?