Deep Fried Real Estate

[Deep Fried Real Estate @DeepFriedRE]

The fatal move is treating your return target as the fixed thing and the risk you take as the variable.

[Deep Fried Real Estate @DeepFriedRE]

When you’re optimizing what exists you’re not creating new value. You’re more at risk and exposed than you think.

Capped ceiling, duration risk, spread expansion, leverage risk, over-optimization/underinvestment, inherent disruption risk.

[Deep Fried Real Estate @DeepFriedRE]

Markets experience structural shifts due to:

1. Risk appetite changes
2. Capital volume flows
3. Volatility

Always ask, “Is this capital betting on growth or optimizing yield—and why?”

[Deep Fried Real Estate @DeepFriedRE]

The missing middle.

[Deep Fried Real Estate @DeepFriedRE]

2026. Nothing to see here.

[Deep Fried Real Estate @DeepFriedRE]

When people talk JVs. Most people obsess over the waterfall.

The real power in a JV often sits in:

🧨 Who controls the exit, when is it triggered, and at what price.

A waterfall only exists if liquidity happens.

[Deep Fried Real Estate @DeepFriedRE]

Credit investing is the inverse of VC.

In VC, 99 losses can be offset by 1 massive winner.

In credit, 99 performing loans can be wiped out by 1 bad default.

Upside is capped at your coupon. Downside is your principal.

That’s why smart (old) lenders obsess over avoiding losers

[Deep Fried Real Estate @DeepFriedRE]

Flying is a little different with the wind at your back.

[Deep Fried Real Estate @DeepFriedRE]

Facts change. I change.

[Deep Fried Real Estate @DeepFriedRE]

In good times people focus on stories and earnings growth. In bad times people focus on balance sheets.

[Deep Fried Real Estate @DeepFriedRE]

When central banks suppress rates (near zero) and add QE, things break:

The price of capital is no longer real

Interest rates stop reflecting:
•Time value of money
•Risk of failure
•Opportunity cost

Capital becomes abundant and mispriced.

[Deep Fried Real Estate @DeepFriedRE]

You don’t avoid losses by being smart in a downturn. You avoid them by being boring and disciplined on the way up.

[Deep Fried Real Estate @DeepFriedRE]

Artificially low interest rates and quantitative easing encourage financial engineering rather than true engineering. It hurts savers. It distorts the capital formation process.

[Deep Fried Real Estate @DeepFriedRE]

Alpha: Creating or capturing value that the market has not already priced.

[Charlie Kirk @charliekirk11]

Jesus defeated death so you can live.

[Deep Fried Real Estate @DeepFriedRE]

@DietCoke82 Great simple summary - add pursuit/engineering cost per unit, impact fees for utilities (if any), soft costs, expected timing of cash inflows/outflows, and reversion estimate. Overlay that with relative risk factor and you got a deal!

[StripMallGuy @realEstateTrent]

I'm ridiculously bad at the small talk segment of the beginning of calls.

[Deep Fried Real Estate @DeepFriedRE]

It's not "more people = higher rents = higher prices."

It's "more money chasing yield = higher prices.

[Deep Fried Real Estate @DeepFriedRE]

If everyone’s waiting on rates to fall and deals to pencil again, then the real opportunity is in buying when they don’t. And if everyone’s chasing growth stories on a spreadsheet, you go find cash flow hiding in plain sight — stuff people need, not what they want.

[Deep Fried Real Estate @DeepFriedRE]

“Success or failure will accrue to those focused on fundamentals." - Sam Zell