Ex-WorldQuant Head of Data Strategy Matt Ober on why quants don't care about the stock market, & why prediction markets become a new asset class.
Matt Ober (Ex-Chief Data Scientist @ Third Point | Ex-Head of Data Strategy @ WorldQuant | Now GP @ Social Leverage)
"Nobody actually really cared about the stock market. I bet if you asked people there when Nvidia was reporting, nobody had a clue."
We cover:
- The WorldQuant thesis: out-consume the world on data, out-manage the world on money
- How a Chico State grad found the job on Craigslist — then walked into a room of PhDs
- Revere, the alt-data goldmine only quants understood
- Tracking CEOs' private jets to front-run M&A
- WorldQuant's factory vs Third Point's fine-art boardroom
- Selling data science to analysts who thought it was a joke
- Why you sell beta, not alpha — alpha erodes, beta is sticky
- The "degenerate economy," and why he can't hire interns anymore
- Prediction markets as the next asset class — bigger than options and futures
- The only edge left in an AI world: your network
Thanks a ton @obermattj for coming on the pod!
Highlights:
(00:00) Intro
(01:18) The WorldQuant thesis - more data, more money
(02:00) Building the alt-data stack
(03:00) Revere - the dataset only quants understood
(04:50) A finance major among PhDs
(09:40) Trading datasets like stocks
(10:30) Why quants don't watch the market
(12:30) WorldQuant Ventures is born
(16:30) Factory vs. boardroom
(18:30) Data's wild west at Third Point
(23:15) Tracking private jets to front-run M&A
(24:20) Igor vs. Dan & the power of network
(32:10) The degenerate economy
(36:25) Patience & outworking everyone
(38:55) Alpha vs. beta, markets & careers
(46:10) Somebody's gotta sell
(51:20) Prediction markets, the new asset class
(53:30) The DoorDash earnings call
(56:35) Going mainstream
(01:03:10) The single source of all edge
Summer is here so a quick tip to all Point 72 interns: Steve does not like you coming in on Monday looking refreshed and full of life. To mimic the effect of working all weekend at the office, you should be blacking out at Phebe’s from Friday to Sunday night
Fund was too thin on AUM to survive the drawdown. Outflows killed the economics. Likely had uncompetitive leverage with the primes, got ripped out of his trades.
he’s getting sued
Calling people “my loves”
good chance it’s a fraud
You know someone worked in banking or private equity before when
> their excel is on page view by default
> every sheet starts on B2
> hardcodes are blue and formulas in black
> references to other tabs in green font
> separate tab just for the assumptions
$KMX was $73.33 on 6/7/24, so has been a strong alpha short over that period. But the market cap spread vs $CVNA has been extraordinary, moving from 2x at that time to over 13.5x today. Might have been one of the best matched pairs in recent times.
Hit rate was 5/6 on prints for the week of 2/23
Longs:
$BYON +10%, $CAVA +20%, $HTZ Flat, $DNUT +30%, and $REAL -3%
Shorts:
$XPOF down nearly 50% on the day