Defense Priorities

The hub of realism and restraint in Washington.

[Defense Priorities @defpriorities]

NEW in @ForeignAffairs by DEFP's @jekavanagh and @RKelanic:

A narrow path to a deal still exists, but it will require U.S. concessions, on both the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear file. Unfortunately, that is the price of a failed war that has left the United States worse off than when it began. https://t.co/Qgwyib9Foo

[Defense Priorities @defpriorities]

Read here: https://t.co/35t1quCWvu

[Defense Priorities @defpriorities]

More bombing cannot take away Iran's geographic advantages or eliminate its ability to strike ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

New statement by Director of Military Analysis @jekavanagh in response to the deaths of multiple American troops killed by Iranian action over the weekend.

[Rosemary Kelanic @RKelanic]

My latest on the Houthi blockade of Saudi Arabia in @RStatecraft 👇

The potential impact to oil markets is substantial. Rerouting traffic through Suez is constrained by that waterway’s limited capacity compared to the Bab-el-Mandeb,
@defpriorities
https://t.co/r0jD0rZGrq

[Defense Priorities @defpriorities]

New statement by DEFP's @jekavanagh:

The Trump administration's ostensible goal, restoring the pre-war status quo in Hormuz, is not achievable using military force. More bombing cannot take away Iran's geographic advantages, eliminate its ability to strike ships, or convince Iran's new leadership to back down from what they see an existential war. https://t.co/43oZtHYyez

[Daniel DePetris @DanDePetris]

“The threat posed by Cuba is described in far more dire terms than those employed by U.S. intelligence officials and State Department diplomats over several decades, reviving speculation that the Trump administration is establishing a pretext for overthrowing the communist government in Havana, a longtime goal of Secretary of State Marco Rubio.” https://t.co/Py3tbLzSEj

[Defense Priorities @defpriorities]

Read the entire statement: https://t.co/35t1quCWvu

[Defense Priorities @defpriorities]

STATEMENT: Over the weekend, the U.S. military announced the deaths of multiple American troops killed by Iranian action. DEFP Director of Military Analysis @jekavanagh issued the following statement in response:

[Defense Priorities @defpriorities]

"In Washington, some voices—including the Defense Priorities think tank which pushes hard for a further pullback of U.S. forces—have argued for several years that the U.S. should keep far ​more limited forces in risky locations overseas, pulling ⁠back not just from the Middle East and Europe but exposed locations in the Pacific," @pete_apps writes for @Reuters. https://t.co/zVrDUDGcIe

[Defense Priorities @defpriorities]

"When will President Trump figure out what Americans already know—that war with Iran isn't worth it?

…Now is the time to show it by either reaching a durable settlement with Iran to restore the flow of oil, or failing that, walking away so at least he does no further harm." @RKelanic https://t.co/YAjWaZqpuN

[Defense Priorities @defpriorities]

"We bombed 13,000 targets in Iran, according to the White House, and that did not cause Iran to collapse,” @RKelanic tells @georgegrylls for @thetimes.

"It did not cause them to capitulate. It actually entrenched the regime and strengthened their position. So even opening another campaign of 13,000 targets struck is unlikely to change anything when the last campaign didn't work." https://t.co/9wSYAjH8Ym

[Defense Priorities @defpriorities]

Trump is debating whether to recognize Somaliland, a breakaway republic in northern Somalia, and establish up to four new military bases there.

Senior Fellow @will_walldorf explains how this would hurt U.S. interests while piling up considerable costs: https://t.co/mUe4HTFRwP

[Rosemary Kelanic @RKelanic]

"Iran basically thinks that it can attack enough vessels that they’ll effectively suppress shipping in the strait. Trump seems to think the U.S. has found a way to get significant quantities of oil out of Hormuz, even if the Iranians don’t cooperate," I told @WSJ

Who's right?

We're currently running the experiment.
https://t.co/H7XbaEZcS4

[Daniel DePetris @DanDePetris]

From Dec 2023: https://t.co/cF8y2ESs5c

[Adam Gallagher @AEGallagher10]

In my latest for @RealClearWorld and @defpriorities, I argue that Trump should forget the idea that there is a military solution to the conflict with Iran and support regional efforts to devise a new Middle East security architecture that ensures the free flow of oil (link👇)

[Defense Priorities @defpriorities]

Read here: https://t.co/c5qfrywXOM

[Defense Priorities @defpriorities]

"In an ideal world, the Strait of Hormuz would be open and free to navigation the way that it was before the war started. But we don't live in that world anymore," @RKelanic tells @georgegrylls for @thetimes.

"It's better to pay a toll and have reliable transit through the Strait of Hormuz than it is to shut down traffic every couple of weeks for months at a time. The global economy can afford the toll more than it can afford the total shutdown of transit through the strait."

[Defense Priorities @defpriorities]

"Iran basically thinks that it can attack enough vessels that they'll effectively suppress shipping in the strait…Trump seems to think the U.S. has found a way to get significant quantities of oil out of Hormuz, even if the Iranians don't cooperate," said @RKelanic in @WSJ. https://t.co/rnVRo15trl

[Defense Priorities @defpriorities]

By increasing its involvement in East Africa, the U.S. States risks squandering more power, while failing to achieve outcomes vital for American security and prosperity.

Read DEFP's new explainer by @will_walldorf: https://t.co/mUe4HTFRwP

[Daniel DePetris @DanDePetris]

The paramount U.S. objective now: re-open the Strait of Hormuz.

This same body of water was free and open before the war.

So Trump is in essence trying to get back to a pre-war status-quo.

That’s a long way of saying that the war is the epitome of a misadventure. Full stop.

[Will Walldorf @will_walldorf]

The Trump administration has quietly ramped up the US war in Somalia to unprecedented levels and is considering policies -- including 4 new military bases in Somaliland -- that will dramatically increase US military engagement in the region. The last thing the United States needs is MORE war in close proximity to the Middle East, especially when it has almost no major interests at stake in Somalia. For a more detailed discussion of current US policy, why it doesn't make sense, and what the US needs to do to wind down the war in Somalia, check-out my latest explainer @defpriorities

Exiting Somalia's war: End U.S. military operations - Defense Priorities https://t.co/Pi42LtNTu6