John M. Larrier

Writer for the Lethal Minds Journal (@MindsLethal) Bulletin From The Borderlands publication. Chief Editor on Asian and Middle Eastern Affairs for @SentDefender

[John M. Larrier @DefenseBulletin]

The team at @sentdefender and I have covered much of the minor and major flashpoints of the ongoing war in Iran. Was happy to be invited on the @BLUF_artorias and discuss the conflict from a more strategic and operational standpoint.

[BLUF: Artorias Podcast @BLUF_artorias]

In this episode we are joined by @DefenseBulletin for a clear, no-analytical breakdown of the war with Iran, cutting through the noise to deliver real military insight on what’s happening and what comes next.

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

Today’s spate of reciprocal strikes between the U.S. and Iran, which was far more intense than those of previous weeks, has cemented the new “ceasefire” dynamic, where Iran responds to U.S. actions by launching strikes on its neighbors and the U.S. responds with retaliatory strikes. This new dynamic is oddly reminiscent of the tit-for-tat strikes on the Houthis, that saw the U.S. ultimately backing down from its aims there to realize deescalation in the local region.

[John M. Larrier @DefenseBulletin]

Iran is likely attempting to force the U.S. Gulf allies to pressure the U.S. into loosening its positions as it relates to ceasefire talks. Less than a week ago the Iranian speaker of parliament said that Iran “does not make concessions with dialogue, but with missiles.”

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

Reports also indicate that Iran has also launched strikes against northern Iraq, specifically Erbil. If true, Iran has now launched strikes against Iraq, Bahrain, and Kuwait, in what would be a notable escalation on Iran’s part.

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

Two interceptors are launched from a MIM-104 “Patriot” Surface-to-Air Missile Battery near Kuwait City during tonight’s Iranian ballistic missile attack against Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait.

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has announced that they have disabled the sixth vessel in support of the naval blockade of Iran. Earlier today, U.S. forces disabled the Botswana-flagged motor tanker Lexie in the Arabian Gulf as it was transiting towards Kharg Island, Iran. According to CENTCOM, the vessel ignored repeated warnings over a 24-hour period. The vessel was disabled by an undisclosed aircraft type firing 1 AGM-114 "Hellfire" air-to-ground missile into the engine room.

Link to video: https://t.co/VF3Gk6mwZc

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

According to today's update from U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) U.S. forces have redirected 122 commercial vessels and disabled 5 in support of the naval blockade of Iran.

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

The United States is in discussions with several members of NATO, including Poland and some of the Baltic States, on whether to deploy nuclear weapons to additional sites throughout Europe, in a move intended to reassure allies that reduced conventional military support on the continent does not weaken security guarantees against Russia, three people briefed on the discussions told the Financial Times.

As part of the talks, which are said to be highly confidential, U.S. officials have signalled openness to additional deployments beyond the existing six countries hosting nuclear-capable bombers, which currently includes Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey and the United Kingdom. Such deployments would potentially allow more countries to host so-called U.S. Dual-Capable Aircraft (DCA), which are able to deliver nuclear strikes, such as the F-15E Strike Eagle and F-35A Lightning II.

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN-73) has entered the Philippine Sea to conduct routine operations following a maintenance period at its new home port of Yokosuka, Japan. The Washington is the nation's only forward-deployed aircraft carrier and currently hosts a full complement of F-35C Lightning IIs. The arrival of the Washington in the region coincides with the redirection of the USS Boxer (LHD-4) Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) and its embarked 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) from the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility to the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) area of responsibility amid regional tensions with China.

[John M. Larrier @DefenseBulletin]

@WeaponScientist I’ve heard enough, nominate him for Navy Secretary now!

[John M. Larrier @DefenseBulletin]

BLUF: Pezeshkian’s Position🧵

While this has yet to be confirmed, there is certainly precedent for such a move. Since the start of the conflict, President Pezeshkian repeatedly drew the ire of more hardline factions within Iran’s top decision-making frameworks for statements and actions that they deemed to be apologetic or directly opposed to their current outlook.
1/3

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

A video showing what appears to be a naval mine purported to be in Omani waters in the Strait of Hormuz has begun circulating on various social media platforms, following the announcement yesterday from Oman's Ministry of Defense warning mariners of a suspected naval mine in their waters. While the authenticity of this video can not be verified, the mine appears to be most similar to an Iranian Maham-1 moored contact mine.

[Sino Talk (Joaquin Camarena) @SinoTalk]

On May 19th, CCTV’s News Live released a news segment that announced the Liaoning aircraft carrier departed to conduct a training exercise in the Western Pacific.

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

According to the New York Times, citing U.S. officials, U.S. forces have guided approximately 70 commercial vessels, both ways, through the Strait of Hormuz in the last three weeks. Per the report, most of the vessels transited with their transponders off to avoid being targeted by Iranian fires and also transited closer to Oman, away from routes designated by Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority.

[John M. Larrier @DefenseBulletin]

These new reports come following assessments that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s increasing delegation of key roles to Iranian generals gave the IRGC, specifically Vahidi, a significant amount of decision-making power within Iran, that tipped the previous balance between hardliners and more moderate decision-makers that Khamenei’s father used to enforce.

End.

[John M. Larrier @DefenseBulletin]

BLUF: Pezeshkian’s Position🧵

While this has yet to be confirmed, there is certainly precedent for such a move. Since the start of the conflict, President Pezeshkian repeatedly drew the ire of more hardline factions within Iran’s top decision-making frameworks for statements and actions that they deemed to be apologetic or directly opposed to their current outlook.
1/3

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

According to @IranIntl_En, citing unspecified sources, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has reportedly tendered his resignation. Per the report, President Pezeshkian cited the increasing influence of a bloc within the IRGC and their growing overmatch over other top administrative divisions within the Iranian government in a letter that Iran International claims to have knowledge of.

[John M. Larrier @DefenseBulletin]

Most notably, Pezeshkian drew public calls of condemnation from Iranian hardliners following his open letter to Iran’s Gulf neighbors during the conflict, where he called the IRGC’s targeting of their regional neighbors “irresponsible.” Subsequently, his active role in the decision-making process was repeatedly blocked by the IRGC, with said efforts being led by the current commander of the IRGC, Ahmad Vahidi.
2/3

[Margaret Brennan @margbrennan]

Zelenskyy tells us that the US has shifted its focus to the Middle East as the main priority, which is why there are pauses in US-Russia diplomatic negotiations. Last week Secretary Rubio said no negotiations are scheduled and indicated progress was stalled. @FaceTheNation

[Jim LaPorta @JimLaPorta]

Deterrence by denial along the First Island Chain is what Elbridge Colby, the under secretary of defense for policy argued for in his 2021 book “The Strategy of Denial.” Defense Secretaries Jim Mattis, Mark Esper and Lloyd Austin have also supported this strategy.

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

The Commander of U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), Gen. Francis L. Donovan, met with Army Corps General, Gen. Roberto Legrá Sotolongo, First Deputy Minister of the Chief of the General Staff, and other senior leaders from the Cuban military today in an exceedingly rare meeting at the perimeter of Naval Station Guantanamo Bay in Eastern Cuba. During the meeting, the military leaders held a brief exchange on operational security matters in Cuba.

[John M. Larrier @DefenseBulletin]

@NotWoofers 😂

[John M. Larrier @DefenseBulletin]

@sentdefender @kommandostore 😂