Juan_Diego

[Latinometrics @LatamData]

🇲🇽 🚫

Desde préstamos familiares hasta tandas informales, la gran mayoría de los negocios mexicanos debe esquivar a los bancos solo para sobrevivir ↓

La abrumadora mayoría de las empresas mexicanas opera completamente sin crédito bancario, apoyándose en cambio en préstamos familiares, crédito de proveedores y tandas informales. Analizamos a fondo los datos detrás de cómo México realmente se financia.

🗞️ lee el análisis completo aquí → https://t.co/d6lExDqBha

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

S&P 500's forward 12m profit margin keeps spiking to new highs

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

41 AI stocks have driven 70 cents of every dollar added to the S&P 500 since ChatGPT launched

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

Core PCE prices rose 0.24% in April. While that was the mildest m/m price gain in the index in five months, it still annualizes to 2.9%.

The 3-month and 6-month annualized core PCE rate was 3.8%, and the 12-month change was 3.3%.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Wall Street is ramping up hedges against Big Tech:

The total net notional value of credit default swaps (CDS) outstanding on major tech firms is up +$1.0 billion so far in Q2 2026, to a record $12.5 billion.

The total value of debt being insured against default on these companies is up +500% since Q2 2025.

Oracle, $ORCL, leads with ~$6.5 billion, followed by Amazon, $AMZN, at ~$2.0 billion, and Alphabet, $GOOGL, at ~$2.0 billion.

At the same time, Microsoft, $MSFT, stands at ~$1.0 billion, Meta, $META, at ~$800 million, and Nvidia, $NVDA, at ~$200 million.

Furthermore, monthly notional trading volumes of Big Tech CDS trading at Bank of America are up +900% since the start of 2025.

For context, most of these CDS contracts did not trade actively until 2025.

Corporate borrowing tied to AI is exploding.

[QE Infinity @StealthQE4]

So 80% of the nation is basically experiencing a depression while the Top 10% live like kings.

This disparity in wealth is not what this nation was founded on.

All men are now not created equal if you are one of the 1%.

[Alpha Extract @alphaextract_]

Global liquidity increased by roughly ~$1 trillion this week, rising from ~$142.4T to ~$143.4T (+0.75%).

More importantly, momentum continues to strengthen.
Our RoC chart is now showing a clearer shift higher after the recent period of stalling and volatility.

What makes this interesting is the backdrop.

Over the past week, bond markets remained under pressure with long-duration yields pushing higher again, while markets continued pricing in the possibility of structurally higher rates over the next 12 months.
Normally, this would create a much more difficult environment for liquidity-sensitive assets.

Yet despite that, liquidity conditions still improved.

Part of that likely comes from continued DXY stabilization around the critical 100 level after months of weakness.
A softer dollar generally eases global financial conditions and tends to support liquidity expansion globally.

At the same time, risk assets have remained surprisingly resilient despite elevated geopolitical tensions and ongoing uncertainty around inflation and refinancing conditions.

For now, the key takeaway remains the same:

Liquidity momentum is improving again, which is constructive for risk assets - but this still looks more like the early stages of reacceleration rather than a fully established expansion regime.

[Leyla @LeylaKuni]

The most demoralizing chart you will see today

[Evreni Merak Ediyoruz @evrenseImerak]

60 yaşındaki büyük anne orka Sophia, büyük beyaz köpekbalığını tek başına öldürürken görüntülenen ilk katil balina oldu.

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

Semiconductors now make up a record 18% of the S&P 500

[Youngbin Yang @yang_youngbin]

최근 SOFR 금리가 많이 떨어져 기준금리 하단에 거의 바짝 붙어있는 상태입니다.

SOFR 금리(가격)의 최근 움직임을 자금의 공급과 수요로 나눠서 분석해 봤습니다.

많이 봐주세요 🫡🙏🙇‍♂️

https://t.co/rQSooE2Rwp

[Barchart @Barchart]

S&P 500 Stock Short Interest jumps to 3%, the highest level in more than a decade 🚨🚨

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

More than 85,000 technology sector jobs have been eliminated, a 33% increase from the same period last year, according to placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

[PassiveInvestingFIRE @FirePassiv60458]

@BullTheoryio So you're saying that you just discovered AI circular financing? Amazing!

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨 THE ENTIRE AI BOOM MIGHT BE BUILT ON FAKE REVENUE.

Latest corporate filings show that OpenAI and Anthropic alone make up over half of the entire $2 trillion future cloud backlog held by Microsoft, Oracle, Google, and Amazon.

This massive pipeline is actually being created through a circular accounting trick called a round trip revenue loop.

But how it works ?

A tech giant gives billions of dollars to an AI startup as an "investment". But hidden in the contract is a strict rule forcing the startup to hand that exact same money straight back to the tech giant to rent their computer servers.

Look at the documented case of Microsoft and OpenAI.

When Microsoft invested $13 billion into OpenAI, it didn't just give them cash; it gave them "cloud credits" to use Microsoft servers. OpenAI used those exact credits to train its AI models, and Microsoft then turned around and recorded that server usage as brand new "cloud revenue" from a customer.

The tech giant is literally paying itself with its own money and calling it a sale.

This is why OpenAI’s annual cloud bill has ballooned to over $60 billion, double its actual revenue of $25 billion, kept alive solely by this recycled funding loop.

Anthropic runs the exact same play, spending $2.66 billion on Amazon Web Services in just nine months, which was basically 100% of all the money it earned at the time.

This manufactured demand triggers a second accounting trick where tech giants book massive paper profits. Every time a startup gets a higher value from a new funding round, the tech giant updates the value of its investment on its books and counts that unearned paper gain as direct profit.

In Q1 2026, Alphabet reported a record $62.6 billion profit, but $28.7 billion nearly half, was just a paper markup on its Anthropic investment. In the same quarter, Amazon reported $30.3 billion in profit, but $16.8 billion of it was just an Anthropic paper gain.

While Amazon reported record profits, its actual free cash flow collapsed 95% to just $1.2 billion because it had to spend $44.2 billion in real cash to build physical data centers.

This has created a massive danger where these giant companies rely heavily on just one or two unstable startups. Microsoft has 49% of its $627 billion future backlog tied to OpenAI, while Oracle has an incredible 54% of its entire $553 billion pipeline relying on OpenAI alone.

This perfectly mirrors the 2001 dot-com crash when Global Crossing and Qwest Communications swapped identical fiber-optic network capacity with each other just to book fake sales.

Qwest had to erase $1.4 billion in fake income, and Global Crossing went completely bankrupt.

The only difference is that the dot-com swaps were illegal, but today's AI loop is fully legal under current accounting rules.

This legal loop inflates tech company stock prices, forcing automatic retirement accounts and index funds to buy even more of these tech stocks. It is a self feeding loop where investments, sales, and stock prices all go up on paper without the AI technology ever making real cash profits.

[Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv]

‼️US inflation is closing in on a level that has historically been DEVASTATING for stocks:

The Cleveland Fed's CPI Nowcasting model, which estimates inflation in real time before official data is released, currently stands at 4.18%, the highest reading since mid-2023 and well above its average of 2.99% since June 2023.

Furthermore, an official annual US inflation rate accelerated to 3.8% in April, the highest since May 2023, up from 3.3% in March.

If inflation crosses 4%, history suggests stocks face significant pain ahead.

Every time US CPI first crossed 4%, the S&P 500 fell an average of -3.5% over the following 3 months and -6.6% over the following 6 months.

The worst instances included July 1946, when stocks fell -21% over 3 months, and August 1987, when the S&P 500 crashed -27% over 3 months and -20% over 6 months.

History says stocks are not ready for what comes next.

[Yoshik @AskYoshik]

The AI bubble math doesn't add up.

Anthropic spends $3 to make $1 and that’s before you include any and all other costs like staff or electricity.

Microsoft dumped $300B in capex, made ~$18B in AI revenue. OpenAI and Anthropic alone make up 43-54% of Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Oracle's entire revenue backlogs.

Enterprises are burning through annual AI budgets in 4 months with zero measurable ROI.

This is the most expensive science experiment in history, funded by your SaaS subscriptions.

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

The World Bank Global Supply Chain Stress Index is based on shipping volumes and has risen nearly to its pandemic peak

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

Hyperscaler Debt Flood Brings Derivatives Bonanza

As big tech companies raise hundreds of billions of dollars to fund artificial intelligence investments, Wall Street banks are increasingly finding they have to trade more credit derivatives to keep doing business with the hyperscalers.

Bank demand is driving up prices for hyperscaler CDS, and pushing trading volumes to record highs.

CDS tied to Microsoft Corp., Amazon. com Inc. and Oracle Corp. notched $4.6 billion in notional trading volume in the first quarter, from $759 million a year earlier, according to Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. Meta CDS — only launched last October — had $534 million in notional trades, more than double the prior quarter. The figures likely understate activity because DTCC caps individual reported trades at $5 million. (Bloomberg)

[Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg]

The health of the Economy is set by the health of the Consumer.

Around 70% of the USD GDP is generated by the US Consumer.

And the Consumer is in a terrible state. Probably in the worst condition - ever!

So - no! The Economy and the Stock Market will not continue to move higher indefinitely. They will soon feel the state of the Consumer.

We are in a massive Bubble. Largest ever! Driven by easy money and AI/Crypto narrative - or chit-chat!

Let me be clear! We are NOT at the top yet. The Market will become even more extreme.

But do not. And I say again - Do Not listen to the perma-Bulls - or the AI-frenzy-commentators - or the analysts with a flashy "Theory" of why the Stock Market will rise forever!

Study - and stay sane!