Demilson Batista Jr

Legender Trading

[Demilson Batista Jr @DemilsonJr2]

@FilipeSant23798 @SpillingTheBean Felipe, Se os compradores ‘sabendo disso’ realmente têm o controle que você descreve, por que o físico brasileiro está negociando a -26 na B3?

[Demilson Batista Jr @DemilsonJr2]

@RenanSantosMBL Com esse sotaque não ganha nunca!! Fonoaudiologia urgente!!!!

[Demilson Batista Jr @DemilsonJr2]

@BolsonaroSP Por favor, não atrapalha!!

[Demilson Batista Jr @DemilsonJr2]

Looks like panic is over. Market ready to re-test previous low. #coffee #kc

[Demilson Batista Jr @DemilsonJr2]

KC and it´s zonesh IMHO. #coffee #arabica #cafe #kc

[Demilson Batista Jr @DemilsonJr2]

“Market seems to be working its way back to the tariff-announcement zone.
Don’t expect a straight drop — this looks like a bumpy, two-steps-down one-step-up process.” #kc #coffee

[Demilson Batista Jr @DemilsonJr2]

Wow...what a fight... Put sellers on fire to save their pockets. So grate so see algos working hard!! #kc #coffeefutures

[Demilson Batista Jr @DemilsonJr2]

Re-testing the Dealer Hedging Zone (Gamma Flip)

March coffee just broke below the rising support and slipped back into the zone where put hedging kicks in and dealers flip from long gamma to short gamma.

Below this level, liquidity thins out, deltas accelerate, and every downtick forces more hedge selling. (I am not saying I am bearish please, please, please!!)

It’s not about call sellers, this is pure put-side risk management.
If this zone fails again with volume, the next leg lower comes fast. #kc #coffee

[Demilson Batista Jr @DemilsonJr2]

@AcbAvr you can try https://t.co/q3PNcJWr1U

[Demilson Batista Jr @DemilsonJr2]

@MarvinR39550814 Funny how some get mad at roasters…
But without them buying, roasting, promoting, educating consumers,
would producers even plant this much coffee?

[Demilson Batista Jr @DemilsonJr2]

Coffee rallied almost $1.2/lb since Aug 6 — the exact date US tariffs on Brazil jumped to 50%.
That entire move is a tariff premium.
When/if tariffs ease back to 10% or 0%, the market will simply unwind the shock that started in August.
Not a crop problem.
Not a demand boom.
Not a “structural shortage”.

Just politics. #kc #coffee #tariffs #brazilcoffee

[Demilson Batista Jr @DemilsonJr2]

I get the bullish setup. no doubt this cycle has strong legs. But ATH calls in a market pumped by tariffs, thin liquidity and forced hedging? That’s not “perfect”, that’s distortion.

Brazil moving fewer bags doesn’t mean structural shortage; it means producers are capitalized and patient.

Bullish cycle? Sure.
Straight line to ATH? That’s not how real markets work.

[Demilson Batista Jr @DemilsonJr2]

@saopaulo24747 Well, If tariffs on Brazil drop, certified stocks against the H contract finally get oxygen. More flow into the U.S., basis normalizes, and some Brazilian lots become economical to certify. Don’t expect a flood, but it would definitely ease the tightness we’ve seen this year.

[Demilson Batista Jr @DemilsonJr2]

@factpostnews Why are the US even putting tariffs on coffee? This isn’t just about price, but job losses too. Protecting Americans with tariffs on something you don’t even grow?

[Demilson Batista Jr @DemilsonJr2]

@Judy_Ganes As I keep saying...restores the flow, hedge, the normal trade.

[Demilson Batista Jr @DemilsonJr2]

@Treg2LS same in Brazil - prices not following futures contracts. Just to show how disconnected this market is to physical trade. With possible tariffs reduction, mkt could collapse until we see all tariffs noise fade

[Demilson Batista Jr @DemilsonJr2]

Everyone’s posting videos of flooded coffee farms in Vietnam,but the Robusta market didn’t seem to get the memo. (solid line less noise)
Prices just broke down from a triangle, momentum fading fast.
Maybe the floods weren’t as catastrophic as the photos, or maybe the market already knows a big crop is coming...or Trump´s tariffs cut...or #kc #robusta #coffee

[Demilson Batista Jr @DemilsonJr2]

@ReallyAmerican1 Why tariffs on coffee? US starting a new project to produce the beans?

[Demilson Batista Jr @DemilsonJr2]

@Moises1045135 Let’s keep an eye on the 380 zone. Wild move can vanish some put sellers protection buying hedge. Hilarious to see this happening near expiration date. Let’s see

[Demilson Batista Jr @DemilsonJr2]

“This isn’t your average pullback — this is where the options book fights back.
Big sharks hedging.
Call sellers above 420, put sellers below 380.
Welcome to the premium jungle 🦈☕️” #KC #COFFEE