Demographic Intelligence

[Demographic Intelligence @DemographicNTEL]

Overall the US may be experiencing a baby boomlet. Or at least a modest pandemic rebound. Positive!

But the secular trends remain pretty negative. And if Utah is sliding... that’s fairly ominous for the long term for the rest of the nation.

[Tim Carney @TPCarney]

America’s most religious state, dominated by a religion whose adherents famously have large broods, has seen its birth rate drop parallel to that in the rest of U.S.
https://t.co/I1byfjZ8YX

[Demographic Intelligence @DemographicNTEL]

Certainly it is possible that birthrates will move higher from their pandemic-induced lows.

But the Social Security Administration sure is taking a leap of faith that births are being deferred... rather than lost entirely

https://t.co/C8qhLSFTqS

[Demographic Intelligence @DemographicNTEL]

An interesting phenomenon.

Could it lead to those mothers desiring more children down the line too?

https://t.co/p7ufMnGqOE

[Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1]

There's evidence of structural shifts in the labor market that may have lasting effects, perhaps pointing to a tighter labor market than it may seem. Among them: a greater desire for some women to stay home with their young kids: https://t.co/9O2kd0BHOC

[Demographic Intelligence @DemographicNTEL]

Meanwhile more broadly... could the recent spike in marriages and planned weddings help push this little increase in births we are seeing in the US?

Could be!

Remains to be seen, but the wedding boom is definitely real.

[Jeanna Smialek @jeannasmialek]

Recently I was at a bachelorette, and my friends were swapping stories about how many weddings they have this summer and next. Some of the numbers were insane.

So, as one does, I immediately thought: "What does this mean for household formation?"

https://t.co/raHbQMQB77

[Demographic Intelligence @DemographicNTEL]

Our Chief Information Officer contributing to the Baby Boomlet...

[Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬 @lymanstoneky]

So I’ve lowkey mentioned it a few times but now officially, we have another healthy girl baby due December 24, 2021! We are incredibly excited— and also deeply relieved. She’s our second to make it this far (Suzie is the other), but our sixth child overall.

[Demographic Intelligence @DemographicNTEL]

The ongoing worldwide decline in fertility (the potential "baby boomlet" that may be happening in the US nonwithstanding) can, and often is, be viewed through the culture war lens because it speaks to something very deep...

https://t.co/nJW0MkBe9H

[Demographic Intelligence @DemographicNTEL]

The trends are solid... that said we were already experiencing a secular trend of declining births.

Still, there is the new child tax credit. That may help in the margins and any help is good!

[Brad Wilcox @BradWilcoxIFS]

2. New state data from 10 states across nation generally indicate

✔️Births moving back up to 2019 levels in most states

https://t.co/q4cVDIvQHL @lymanstoneky

[Demographic Intelligence @DemographicNTEL]

We are back to pre-pandemic trend on births! Excellent!

Weddings seem to be bouncing back sharply. Also good!

Remains to be seen if we can recoup ground lost from the pandemic bust though.

[Demographic Intelligence @DemographicNTEL]

https://t.co/dfajjBV45k

[Brad Wilcox @BradWilcoxIFS]

1. BREAKING:

New state & hospital data from across U.S. indicates:

✔️Births ⬆️ since March
✔️March 2021 births already back to March 2020 levels
✔️Govt. stimulus may have fueled early birth recovery

Report from @lymanstoneky @BradWilcoxIFS @FamStudies
https://t.co/q4cVDIvQHL

[Brad Wilcox @BradWilcoxIFS]

The rise in overdoses visualized @UpshotNYT https://t.co/bvxyjfWWZH

[Demographic Intelligence @DemographicNTEL]

You add the huge decline in births last year... the US demographic picture is decidedly darker than it was just prior to the pandemic.

[Demographic Intelligence @DemographicNTEL]

An absolutely staggering increase in drug overdose deaths.

Coupled with 400,000-500,000 COVID fatalities last year, it's easy to see why CDC documented excess deaths were high for every single week in 2020 beginning in March.

[The Washington Post @washingtonpost]

U.S. drug overdose deaths surged nearly 30 percent in 2020, reflecting toll of pandemic https://t.co/VUc3GdPmAN

[Demographic Intelligence @DemographicNTEL]

Retailers are, apparently, anticipating a bit of a baby boomlet in 2022.

Certainly the number of weddings planned for 2021 is dramatically higher than a year ago. So it's *possible!*

Is it likely? How long would it last? We simply do not know.

Yet.

https://t.co/Q7PN6bMURe

[Demographic Intelligence @DemographicNTEL]

https://t.co/qDMNXFUbKT

[Reuters @Reuters]

Brazil registers record deaths, lowest number of births for Jan-June period https://t.co/DuwqazFcCB

[Demographic Intelligence @DemographicNTEL]

China's "inevitable" passing of the US as the world's economic power may simply never happen.

A key reason why? Its terrible demographic picture that's only getting darker despite a near total reversal in policy by the government.

Courtesy of @business

https://t.co/EXH8SHWzyp

[Demographic Intelligence @DemographicNTEL]

It's not just the typical baby items like diapers, bottles, formula or clothes that might find fewer takers because of the COVID "baby bust."

Down the line even the insurance industry might feel a pinch..

https://t.co/CNJPYBPOJV

[Demographic Intelligence @DemographicNTEL]

Yes this pretty much sums it up. Significantly elevated deaths from COVID and other causes and an accelerating decline in birthrates will get you an ugly chart like this:

https://t.co/IJO3VPxBIR

[Demographic Intelligence @DemographicNTEL]

COVID is obviously not as dangerous to younger adults as it is to those of middle age or older... but its statistical effect on mortality in that younger cohort is real, especially since younger adults and children simply do not die as often as older people!

[Demographic Intelligence @DemographicNTEL]

Layer a pandemic on top of already rising mortality for younger adults, as well as falling marriage and birth rates... and that's a recipe for even slower population growth.

If not eventual decline.

[Brad Wilcox @BradWilcoxIFS]

WOW:

1. “Staggering” “25.2% mortality increase over nine years” for young adults (25-34) in America — with deaths surging also in *2020*. Not primarily COVID but homicides and drug overdoses seem to be likely causes, writes @foxjust https://t.co/akUVId9CKp

[Demographic Intelligence @DemographicNTEL]

Our chief information officer on the @nytimes' The Argument discussing the USA's falling birthrate and what it means for the country.

Definitely worth a listen!

[Caroline Hartnett @carohartnett]

I really enjoyed participating in The Argument with @lymanstoneky and @janecoaston ! We talked about: whether (+ why) we're concerned about the U.S. birth rate, factors making parenthood hard, how "overpopulation" concerns receded (+ shifted) over time... https://t.co/SulXlKU0Va